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Author Topic: Wisdom of Crowds  (Read 891 times)
fred944
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September 24, 2013, 11:17:58 PM
 #1

Noob here - I heard they found a sunken ship in the middle of the Pacific by averaging a bunch of answers, so here are some tough questions I wonder about:

1) How many people worldwide have at least one Bitcoin wallet?

2) What will 1 BTC cost in USD on Dec 31, 2013?

thanks!
Fred

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monbux
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September 24, 2013, 11:24:55 PM
 #2

2) What will 1 BTC cost in USD on Dec 31, 2013?

I'm thinknig it'll remain some what the same, might go up to $150 USD OR drop to $100 USD.
jason60069
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September 24, 2013, 11:29:24 PM
 #3

It's hard to predict how many people have a bitcoin wallet, but it's probably in the millions.


December 31 isn't very far from now, so I'm guessing about $140.


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September 25, 2013, 12:46:53 AM
 #4

I am guessing around $160..

nobbynobbynoob
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September 25, 2013, 12:56:24 AM
 #5

Noob here - I heard they found a sunken ship in the middle of the Pacific by averaging a bunch of answers, so here are some tough questions I wonder about:

1) How many people worldwide have at least one Bitcoin wallet?

2) What will 1 BTC cost in USD on Dec 31, 2013?

thanks!
Fred



Question 1) is particularly interesting whereas 2) is just speculation. A few months ago, I found a site somewhere that suggested there were only about 1,6 million funded Bitcoin addresses, which might equate to somewhere between 50.000 and 200.000 unique users. If we're considering a genuine Bitcoiner as someone who has handled at least one millibitcoin in a wallet or account they control some time in their life then there might be anywhere between 100.000 and 2 million Bitcoiners worldwide right now - in truth, nobody knows exactly. There is increasing interest in the Far East, especially China, in terms of Bitcoin-Qt downloads, but this does not necessarily mean all those downloaders deposited 1 mBTC or more in their newfangled wallets.

As for guessing the BTC/fiat ratio at the end of this year, I'll just pull a random figure out of my backside because it's as good as anybody else's guess: $172 on Coinbase/Bitstamp.

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marcotheminer
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September 25, 2013, 10:27:27 AM
 #6

10 million

and $160 USD

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nobbynobbynoob
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September 25, 2013, 01:13:39 PM
 #7

10 million

Are there even that many funded Bitcoin addresses at the moment? It'd be interesting to find out: the 1,6 million figure I quoted in my previous post is a few months out of date.

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Samir_H
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September 25, 2013, 02:42:29 PM
 #8

2) What will 1 BTC cost in USD on Dec 31, 2013?

I hope 200$ Smiley
And I think it's not impossible to be around that.
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September 25, 2013, 03:12:08 PM
 #9

Do you have a link about that sunken ship story? The wisdom of the crowds is an interesting story, just in trading you'd have to do the opposite, since most traders are losing money...

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fred944
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October 07, 2013, 02:11:19 PM
 #10

Do you have a link about that sunken ship story? The wisdom of the crowds is an interesting story, just in trading you'd have to do the opposite, since most traders are losing money...
Here's a link:
http://freakonomics.com/2011/09/28/nazis-sunken-ships-and-a-67-year-old-game-of-telephone/
qwertyGuy
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October 07, 2013, 02:25:24 PM
 #11

2) What will 1 BTC cost in USD on Dec 31, 2013?

In 3 months probably +- 30 of today price.

Good luck with the averaging story, some will tell you 1000+  Tongue
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