BFL ROI

[amer]

I expect my Monarchs to arrive sometime next year.
I expect my Monarchs will ROI in less than a year after I get them.
I base that on Moore's law, Murphy's law, and past experiences with BFL.
This is a conservative/pessimistic estimate.
Also, my 25% off voucher should be taken into account.
Not everyone has that option available.
The bottom line is Bitcoin mining has always been profitable for me, and mining with BFL hardware has always been especially profitable. I have no reason to expect that to change.

Okay, in other words, you bought 600GH/s for $3510 (about $5.85 per GH) and are expecting delivery sometime in early 2014 and difficulty to stop rising so that you get an ROI. I assume that BFL is not your sole investment? Are you being "more risky" because you already are way in the black due to your previous efforts? Would you recommend that someone starting out go with BFL based on your experiences?

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[Unacceptable]

My strategy has been mine and hold for over 2 years now, and it's working. If you measure ROI in BTC right after a parabolic rise, you end up with misleading numbers.
Yes Bitcoin is a better investment than mining gear. However, those of us that want to diversify have found mining to be a good hedge for holding.
My BFL ASICs were ordered in October and January. They are happily hashing away making me more than a full-time job ever did. They will ROI by the end of next month. That is a mathematical certainty. Yes, I would have made more if I held on to Bitcoin. Hindsight 20/20 and all that, I would have sold my every worldly possession and went ass-deep into debt to buy BTC last year, and sell them all at $266, but let's be real here, and stop spreading FUD.

I did the same,used earnings from June 2011 for reinvestment of FPGA & ASIC's,no cash out of pocket since I started with $600 for GPU's.Just kept rolling it over  

Your "ride" on BFL units will be over by years end bro,don't kid yourself........unless you have free electric & more than 400GH in hashing power right now

Good luck on getting your Monarch's by Feb,I've been burned & lied to too many times by BFL............never again  

I/we should of had our first day order units by Jan or Feb this year,I lost out on the "early adopter advantage" that the Avalon guys were lucky enough to get in on..................



@ amer,DO NOT buy from BFL,they WILL be late again & miss thier power targets AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!! I promise you they have NOT learned ANYTHING!!!!!!!!! 

Look to Bitmine in Nov,I am 

[chalidore]

I honestly think that if difficulty goes so high that my singles are no longer profitable, the price of BTC will go up to compensate. When I was buying BFL FPGAs people were saying the same thing, but I mined profitably with them until I sent them in for the trade-up.
I would recommend BFL to anyone getting into mining, but don't count chickens before they hatch. I am not expecting to have my Monarchs by February. I expect Moore's law and Murphy's law to show their ugly heads. That does not deter me. Bitcoin mining and BFL have been good to me. I can't predict the future, but I can act on past experience. I will be patient. I will get my gear when I get it. I am pretty sure it will ROI, but there is no guarantee. I can live with that level of risk.
What I most certainly advise against is placing a pre-order with a company that has never delivered a product. That would narrow your choices down to Asicminer, Avalon, and BFL. I have about 50 block erupters that will probably never ROI. I will give them away as Christmas presents. Don't buy those. From what I hear, and I may be wrong, Avalon burned everyone except their first 300 batch 1 customers. That leaves BFL.
For anyone getting in, I would recommend buying and holding Bitcoin until the next parabolic rise, then buy mining equipment from a vendor with an established reputation. If you want to hedge on your BTC holdings, invest a percentage of your BTC into mining equipment.
Let us not forget what this is really all about. Every time someone hooks up a mining rig, the network gets stronger, and therefore more valuable. Bitcoin is the greatest threat to the banks in all history. Why should we spend time away from our families at jobs we hate, only to give more power to the assholes enslaving us. We should be spreading this like fire. Every single person that hates banks should be mining right now.

[amencon]

Jealous people think I'm lucky. Everyone else thinks I'm smart.
I'm not off topic. The topic is BFL ROI.
My units will ROI in about a month.
Nuff said.

It sounds like you made a wise choice to invest in BTC when you did.  You used BFL to acquire those coins which was a separate investment choice and turned out to be sub-optimal in comparison to other potential investment methods.  Why you praise BFL for being profitable when in fact they taxed your acquisition of BTC prior to rising in price is anyone's guess.  In the end it was investing in BTC that made you so much money, BFL was just the acquisition vehicle that held more risk and returned less coins than other avenues available. 

I suppose if the number of BTC lost by purchasing with BFL rather than holding is judged to be a worthy cost for the hashrate they've let you generate to help the network you could praise them for that, but not for being a profitable method of BTC investment.

I'm curious how you consider mining and holding to be a hedge for buying and holding.  In both cases you end up holding BTC so how does one hedge against the other?  If maximum profits are desired shouldn't you just choose the method has you holding the most BTC at the end of the day?

My advice to the OP is to get refund if possible or if stuck with the machine then run it for the next 1-1.5 months and then sell it depending on market conditions for in hand ASIC sales to maximize returns.

[burek]

I upgraded to ASIC from FPGA. I mined on my FPGA units for over a year, and used the BTC I mined to upgrade. I paid a little over $700 each to upgrade my FPGA singles to 60gh ASICs. Each 60gh unit makes $871 worth of BTC per month at current price and difficulty. I will ROI in about a month. I can't complain.
I cashed out a ton of BTC and quit my job in April. Now I get to spend my time with my wife and daughter.
Thank you Bitcoin, and thank you Butterfly Labs.

Your math is wrong

Today difficulty = 148819200
Today price = 146$USD

That's 0,2BTC/day. That's 369$USD per month, but it's not even that much 'cause diff will rise in 7 days.

You'd brake even for sure, but I think you'd probably had a lots more if you kept your BTCs rather than buying BFL gear more than a year ago. But you made it... spending time with your family in these days is priceless. Cheers.

[erk]

I ordered two BFL Jalapenos back in April, I paid for them with BTC I had mined on a HD 5770 card I literally pulled out of the trash can as it was freezing on Windows, due to a power saver bug in the firmware, so I set it mining on Linux for several weeks back in 2011, then lost interest. The electricity cost was about $15 so the Jalapenos owe me about $7.50 each, that's including shipping.

It will be interesting to see if I can get my $15 back when they eventually arrive.


ATM there is not one BFL product in their range that I would buy, had BFL been any good at production/shipping I would have ordered a lot more, but that opportunity went back in July when it was clear BFL had dropped the ball. BFL have been overpriced for a few months, and now it is clear their terrible power consumption per GH/s  makes them useless for people like me that don't  have access to ultra cheap electricity.

[amer]

@ amer,DO NOT buy from BFL,they WILL be late again & miss thier power targets AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!! I promise you they have NOT learned ANYTHING!!!!!!!!! 

I actually did look at BFL in January and got my Jala, mined and resold it and made above ROI. However, I am not ignoring the collective horror stories so I am skeptical now. As for my question, I was just trying to translate "I made my money bishes, cya" into a more constructive discussion.

Each 60gh unit makes $871 worth of BTC per month at current price and difficulty. I will ROI in about a month. I can't complain.
I cashed out a ton of BTC and quit my job in April. Now I get to spend my time with my wife and daughter.
Thank you Bitcoin, and thank you Butterfly Labs.

Your math is wrong

Today difficulty = 148819200
Today price = 146$USD

That's 0,2BTC/day. That's 369$USD per month, but it's not even that much 'cause diff will rise in 7 days.

0.2 BTC / day x 30 day/month = 6 BTC per month x 146 USD per BTC = 876 USD per month...

[Unacceptable]

@ amer,DO NOT buy from BFL,they WILL be late again & miss thier power targets AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!! I promise you they have NOT learned ANYTHING!!!!!!!!! 

I actually did look at BFL in January and got my Jala, mined and resold it and made above ROI. However, I am not ignoring the collective horror stories so I am skeptical now. As for my question, I was just trying to translate "I made my money bishes, cya" into a more constructive discussion.

Each 60gh unit makes $871 worth of BTC per month at current price and difficulty. I will ROI in about a month. I can't complain.
I cashed out a ton of BTC and quit my job in April. Now I get to spend my time with my wife and daughter.
Thank you Bitcoin, and thank you Butterfly Labs.

Your math is wrong

Today difficulty = 148819200
Today price = 146$USD

That's 0,2BTC/day. That's 369$USD per month, but it's not even that much 'cause diff will rise in 7 days.

0.2 BTC / day x 30 day/month = 6 BTC per month x 146 USD per BTC = 876 USD per month...

I've been reading like a madman about all these new ASIC companies from day 1,my bet is on Bitmine ATM.I have insider info too,from 2 sources that currently produce miners 

KNC is going to be a little late,but thier units are overpriced,good hashrates,but cost way more than they will return,same for Bitfury/Cointerra/Hashfast/Fasthash.Forget ASICMINER,overpriced & underpowered in hashrate,until they offer 28nm or something............

All ASIC's will see a price drop by December/Jan............believe it.Wait till then & save up for it.

Oh, & buy only with CreditCard/Paypal.so you get a refund.BTC is great,but trying to get a refund from scammers is impossible,too risky ATM.Sharks are circleing in BTCland 

Take whatever side you want,but BFL will be LATE AGAIN & wrong on power estimates............AGAIN !!!!!!!!!!!

Erk,it pains me to say this,but good post 

[ralree]

Here's another way of looking at the potential for continued long-term exponential growth (but I think it uses the same line of thinking)...

+1.  This is what I meant.  Thanks for the down-to-earth calculation.  Don't let TheGenesisBlock's calculator (which is awesome, btw) trick you into thinking we're going to have a larger (hashrate-wise) network than we will.  Remember - nearly everyone advising you against mining .. is a miner .  I would still take delivery on a $1299 60GH miner.

[cpengr]

Here's another way of looking at the potential for continued long-term exponential growth (but I think it uses the same line of thinking)...

+1.  This is what I meant.  Thanks for the down-to-earth calculation.  Don't let TheGenesisBlock's calculator (which is awesome, btw) trick you into thinking we're going to have a larger (hashrate-wise) network than we will.  Remember - nearly everyone advising you against mining .. is a miner .  I would still take delivery on a $1299 60GH miner.

amer provided some useful info and perspective as it relates to a longer term view. However, AFAICT, short term--if the hash growth rate stays the same (very roughly 100%/month) for the next 2-3 months, then this miner will not even approach breaking even in terms of USD. Am I wrong in my calculation? Or is there some reason you expect a significant drop in the hash rate growth rate very soon?

[amencon]

Here's another way of looking at the potential for continued long-term exponential growth (but I think it uses the same line of thinking)...

+1.  This is what I meant.  Thanks for the down-to-earth calculation.  Don't let TheGenesisBlock's calculator (which is awesome, btw) trick you into thinking we're going to have a larger (hashrate-wise) network than we will.  Remember - nearly everyone advising you against mining .. is a miner .  I would still take delivery on a $1299 60GH miner.

amer provided some useful info and perspective as it relates to a longer term view. However, AFAICT, short term--if the hash growth rate stays the same (very roughly 100%/month) for the next 2-3 months, then this miner will not even approach breaking even in terms of USD. Am I wrong in my calculation? Or is there some reason you expect a significant drop in the hash rate growth rate very soon?

I think in the future the best case scenario for hashrate will be leveling towards flat, I can't imagine a scenario short of a algo change or a major blow to Bitcoin where the hashrate will actually drop in the foreseeable future.  Could be wrong though, also interested in ralree's explanation for his optimistic outlook.

[cpengr]

Or is there some reason you expect a significant drop in the hash rate growth rate very soon?

I think in the future the best case scenario for hashrate will be leveling towards flat, I can't imagine a scenario short of a algo change or a major blow to Bitcoin where the hashrate will actually drop in the foreseeable future.  Could be wrong though, also interested in ralree's explanation for his optimistic outlook.

I don't expect the hash rate to ever drop, so long as Bitcoin continues to grow. I was talking about the hash rate growth rate dropping, and whether there's some reason to think that may happen soon.

[Unacceptable]

We are way the fuck off topic. Can we get back to it please?

The question of this thread is whether it makes sense to accept delivery of a 60 GH/s BFL miner, purchased before the price increase (and hashrate reduction), with likely delivery within the next month.

I'm not asking about potentially purchasing new miners. chalidore, go take your BFL cheerleading and awesome mining strategies to another thread. Start your own if you want, just stop polluting mine.

Yes,a 60GH'er BEFORE price increase,take it.But it won't last long,3-4 Petahash is coming early next year.............................

[amencon]

Or is there some reason you expect a significant drop in the hash rate growth rate very soon?

I think in the future the best case scenario for hashrate will be leveling towards flat, I can't imagine a scenario short of a algo change or a major blow to Bitcoin where the hashrate will actually drop in the foreseeable future.  Could be wrong though, also interested in ralree's explanation for his optimistic outlook.

I don't expect the hash rate to ever drop, so long as Bitcoin continues to grow. I was talking about the hash rate growth rate dropping, and whether there's some reason to think that may happen soon.

I suppose the only way for that to happen would be if all or most of the 28nm products are delayed considerably or ship at an extremely slow pace.  Unfortunately there is no way for any of us to know how successful each respective company will be in their ASIC endeavor but my money is that we will accelerate growth or at a minimum stay our current course for at least 3-6 months.

A few members have made some good threads estimating the total hashrate planned to be deployed by 2014 (and a bit beyond) based on announcement from various companies.  I'm too lazy to find links but I don't think you'd have to dig too far into Custom Hardware and Mining Speculation to find them.

If you plan to receive the 60GH in a month or so the big question is will KNC complete their deliveries to their first Sept/Oct batch of customers and will Hashfast ship product in a few weeks like they claim.  If both these fail then you might look at a nice return, if KNC gets their act together and Hashfast delivers as promised it might be very rough for you keeping the unit.

[Syke]

The question of this thread is whether it makes sense to accept delivery of a 60 GH/s BFL miner, purchased before the price increase (and hashrate reduction), with likely delivery within the next month.

If you can take delivery before the next difficulty adjustment, you have a good chance of ROI. Delivery in a month? No chance of profit.

[cpengr]

The question of this thread is whether it makes sense to accept delivery of a 60 GH/s BFL miner, purchased before the price increase (and hashrate reduction), with likely delivery within the next month.

If you can take delivery before the next difficulty adjustment, you have a good chance of ROI. Delivery in a month? No chance of profit.

Could you remind me where I can find out the projected time of the next difficulty adjustment?

Also, can you provide some numbers or point me to a source to support your claim?

Thanks for your input.

[erk]

Looks like KNCminer got their machine running on schedule and it's faster than they promised

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFOcI8nK2xI


Kind of makes BFL look like a sick joke.

[Syke]

Could you remind me where I can find out the projected time of the next difficulty adjustment?

With current growth rates, it's about every 11 days. Next adjustment in about 5 days to 180M.

Also, can you provide some numbers or point me to a source to support your claim?

Thanks for your input.

Here's an optimistic estimate: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/49a674a026

If it doesn't break even in the next 3-6 months, it never will.

[k9quaint]

Looks like KNCminer got their machine running on schedule and it's faster than they promised

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFOcI8nK2xI


Kind of makes BFL look like a sick joke.

Now that is engineering. I would like to give a "Great job done" to the KNCMiner guys. 

[DPoS]

My strategy has been mine and hold for over 2 years now, and it's working. If you measure ROI in BTC right after a parabolic rise, you end up with misleading numbers.
Yes Bitcoin is a better investment than mining gear. However, those of us that want to diversify have found mining to be a good hedge for holding.
My BFL ASICs were ordered in October and January. They are happily hashing away making me more than a full-time job ever did. They will ROI by the end of next month. That is a mathematical certainty. Yes, I would have made more if I held on to Bitcoin. Hindsight 20/20 and all that, I would have sold my every worldly possession and went ass-deep into debt to buy BTC last year, and sell them all at $266, but let's be real here, and stop spreading FUD.

amen, all these 'better to just buy BTC' crackpots all assume they time the market brilliantly

it's fun though messing with their one track mind