BFL ROI

[cpengr]

Am I reading this right?

The difficulty growth rate over the last 3 months has been about 100%/month.

So even if I get a 60 GH/s BFL miner (EDIT: at $1299, before the price increase), and start mining on October 1, with free electricity (which I don't have), assuming the 100% growth rate per month continues for the next year, then at the current exchange rate, it only just barely breaks even? A.K.A. Zero ROI.

(Mining dashbord.)

[1715203371]

1715203371

[amencon]

Using your criteria it's much worse than that:

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/cc632f9ecb

With 0 pool fees, misc costs and electricity you still wouldn't even earn back half what you put into it.

This is assuming your assumptions are accurate of course, but any way you slice it, it still doesn't look good.

[cpengr]

Using your criteria it's much worse than that:

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/cc632f9ecb

With 0 pool fees, misc costs and electricity you still wouldn't even earn back half what you put into it.

This is assuming your assumptions are accurate of course, but any way you slice it, it still doesn't look good.

It seems I forgot to state one of my criteria:

(EDIT: at $1299, before the price increase)

[joeventura]

What are you basing your costs on?

$1250 60Gh Singles
or
$2500 60gh Singles?

Pre-April 1st cost or Post April 1st costs??

[cpengr]

What are you basing your costs on?

(EDIT: at $1299, before the price increase)

[joeventura]

Your math is different then mine.

I am even by December

[ralree]

Yes, the network will continue doubling in size every 30 days .. forever.  Just like it did with video cards.  Oh wait..

[amencon]

Yes, the network will continue doubling in size every 30 days .. forever.  Just like it did with video cards.  Oh wait..

Sure it won't double forever, unfortunately it doesn't have to in order to destroy the profitability of most ASICs for the foreseeable future. 

For all intents and purposes a doubling of hashrate for 6 months with tapering of growth after that and doubling forever gives us roughly the same profitability calculation for this scenario.

In fact 100% per month for 3-6 months might be optimistic considering thegenesisblock has us at 126% for last 30 days before a single 28nm ASIC has shipped.  Then again it seems so many of these manufacturers have a hard time with timely delivery so nothing is certain but I'd be happy if we only stick to 100% / month for the short term.

[cpengr]

Your math is different then mine.

Here's my math (screenshot below), which is crazy optimistic in every way, except for the non-overclocked, exactly as-specced hashrate. How does yours differ?

I am even by December

That's roughly consistent with my screenshot above. And it barely grows past that.

If I actually take delivery, I estimate I might get it in late Oct / early Nov. I'm postulating that since it looks like I won't even break even, that I should request a refund--and I'm here looking for second opinions.

[cpengr]

Yes, the network will continue doubling in size every 30 days .. forever.  Just like it did with video cards.  Oh wait..

It's not a doubling in size, it's a doubling in hashrate. This is the ASIC revolution; the hashrate of each new device is increasing at a much faster rate then it did with video cards over the last couple of years.

It doesn't have to continue forever for my crazy optimistic calculations to serve as a benchmark or envelope; it just has to continue for 3 months or so. I don't see any reason why it's particularly likely to change in that time. If you do, please share.

[bcp19]

Your math is different then mine.

Here's my math (screenshot below), which is crazy optimistic in every way, except for the non-overclocked, exactly as-specced hashrate. How does yours differ?

I am even by December

That's roughly consistent with my screenshot above. And it barely grows past that.

If I actually take delivery, I estimate I might get it in late Oct / early Nov. I'm postulating that since it looks like I won't even break even, that I should request a refund--and I'm here looking for second opinions.

Do you realize that by April you have the network at 120PH, May 240PH, June 480PH, July 960PH?  This growth is unsustainable.  The biggest gun out there at the moment is 2TH.  It'd take 60k of them in April or 2000 a day.  120K of them in May or 4000 a day.  240K of them in June or 8000 a day.  See where this is going?

[erk]

Your math is different then mine.

That's roughly consistent with my screenshot above. And it barely grows past that.

If I actually take delivery, I estimate I might get it in late Oct / early Nov. I'm postulating that since it looks like I won't even break even, that I should request a refund--and I'm here looking for second opinions.

How about you punch in the real difficulty, not some down tuned figure. It's 148 not 86.

[cpengr]

How about you punch in the real difficulty, not some down tuned figure. It's 148 not 86.

Bitcoin Block Explorer agrees with you.

I'm new to the Mining Dashboard. I think maybe instead of starting from the main page, I started from someone else's estimate, so it plugged in their old difficulty. Thanks for the correction.

My new (crazy optimistic) calculation indicates that it won't even approach breaking even. Can anyone cite evidence to the contrary?

[cpengr]

Do you realize that by April you have the network at 120PH, May 240PH, June 480PH, July 960PH?  This growth is unsustainable.  The biggest gun out there at the moment is 2TH.  It'd take 60k of them in April or 2000 a day.  120K of them in May or 4000 a day.  240K of them in June or 8000 a day.  See where this is going?

No, I didn't realize that. That's good info, and it's why I started this thread.

However, it seems to me that this growth rate only has to continue for about 2 months to make my purchase worthless or worse. Can you cite any evidence to the contrary, or that even this short-term continuation is unlikely?

[Razorr]

Looks like you'll break even and after that the unit gets unplugged and put up for sale on Ebay.

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=148819199.80509&dcosts=1299&diff_mincrease=20&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=60000&diff_mincreasedecrease=1&btcusd=129.83&dpowcon=100&btcusd_mincrease=1&pcost=.15&calcweeks=32&dleadtime=0&action=calc#

tips

1MY8YHqe5n4oW6VR8JSf8jRDZwV6hjRJw6

[cpengr]

^^ Interesting idea.

[amer]

Your math is different then mine.

Here's my math (screenshot below), which is crazy optimistic in every way, except for the non-overclocked, exactly as-specced hashrate. How does yours differ?

I am even by December

That's roughly consistent with my screenshot above. And it barely grows past that.

If I actually take delivery, I estimate I might get it in late Oct / early Nov. I'm postulating that since it looks like I won't even break even, that I should request a refund--and I'm here looking for second opinions.

Do you realize that by April you have the network at 120PH, May 240PH, June 480PH, July 960PH?  This growth is unsustainable.  The biggest gun out there at the moment is 2TH.  It'd take 60k of them in April or 2000 a day.  120K of them in May or 4000 a day.  240K of them in June or 8000 a day.  See where this is going?

Here's another way of looking at the potential for continued long-term exponential growth (but I think it uses the same line of thinking). In the days of GPU, it took us 300-400 watts per GH/s. The network was at around 23TH/s total at the beginning of the year. So, there were 7-9 GW of energy dedicated to mining and "normal" network growth.

The first generation of devices now can convert 6-10W per GH/s. It took us about 10 months to get to this point, 1300TH/s as people convert their devices over, cash out, etc. So, with 30-70x more efficiency, we should expect 30-70x more hashrate, let's call it 1610TH/s. We're nearing the end of round 1, but not there yet and it took 10 months to get us here.

The second generation (bitfury/knc) are running at 1.0-1.6W per GH/s. That would move the needle if EVERYONE converted over to 3.75 to 10x more efficient. That would only bring it to 16PH/s for network total in however it takes for people to convert to more efficient units.

There are devices out there that are promising 0.6W per GH/s for release in 1Q 2014, and will again be subject to delivery issues, but if everyone moves to the new efficiency, we're talking another 2.6x jump at the worst, so 41.6PH/s.

In other words, there is no way that the network will reach 120PH in April, let alone 2014, without some big surprise event like - cost of power going down by 1/3 globally (not happening), a viral growth of participation in bitcoin (barrier to entry is still pretty high right now) or the announcement of a 0.2W per GH/s chip (which is also unlikely because the 0.6W per GH chips are a 28nm process and Moore's law would dictate that we're not tripling our efficiency in 5 months)

[chalidore]

I upgraded to ASIC from FPGA. I mined on my FPGA units for over a year, and used the BTC I mined to upgrade. I paid a little over $700 each to upgrade my FPGA singles to 60gh ASICs. Each 60gh unit makes $871 worth of BTC per month at current price and difficulty. I will ROI in about a month. I can't complain.
I cashed out a ton of BTC and quit my job in April. Now I get to spend my time with my wife and daughter.
Thank you Bitcoin, and thank you Butterfly Labs.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Anybody seeing this http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/a94cee351d is ordering, unless they take the time to adjust the defult settings, i.e. it currently uses the hightest exchange rate--Mt Gox.

That said, does anybody know who is behind/developed that site?

[chalidore]

My strategy has been mine and hold for over 2 years now, and it's working. If you measure ROI in BTC right after a parabolic rise, you end up with misleading numbers.
Yes Bitcoin is a better investment than mining gear. However, those of us that want to diversify have found mining to be a good hedge for holding.
My BFL ASICs were ordered in October and January. They are happily hashing away making me more than a full-time job ever did. They will ROI by the end of next month. That is a mathematical certainty. Yes, I would have made more if I held on to Bitcoin. Hindsight 20/20 and all that, I would have sold my every worldly possession and went ass-deep into debt to buy BTC last year, and sell them all at $266, but let's be real here, and stop spreading FUD.