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Author Topic: Study says being rich is determined by chance rather than intelligence or talent  (Read 2952 times)
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April 24, 2018, 05:52:44 PM
 #341

     While I agree that luck truly plays a big role in the process of being successful in any field or being rich, I do not think that luck alone can take you to such heights. Just look at a lottery winner being a multi millionaire for a year or two but then end up being poor again in the next few years. If you do not have the intelligence, you will not be able to take the chance if it is there, and even if you have intelligence but do not have the skills or talents required to maintain being there, you will eventually end up going down than up.

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April 24, 2018, 05:59:19 PM
 #342

I would disagree with the article. Of course chance has a good role in anyone's life but if you put a lot more effort then you get a lot more lucky. That's just basically how it is, the more entries you send the more chances of winning. So those people that has a lot of good ideas ends up being rich. Look at Elon Musk, if you guys didn't know, the guy invented Paypal and he just sold it. Look at him now. He's still making billions out of his new ideas.
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April 24, 2018, 06:00:52 PM
 #343

chance is a factor of course. noone can deny it. but you should do something i mean you should make a step to become a rich. you can not be a rich just by luck. even if you are a lottery winner, it means that you spent money to buy a ticket. so it is not only chance or luck.
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April 24, 2018, 06:01:57 PM
 #344

Opportunity knock once and that is your chance to reach out your dreams, many intelligent people are thinking that when they let it pass they can do their things but some people who is wise but not intellectual but grab it.

That's one reason why people become rich out of a sudden or become successful in life, and most intelligent people are full of pride that they can do anything but fails to do so...
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April 24, 2018, 06:21:24 PM
 #345

I think, nothing can change a person's fate except from the person himself, it all depends on our own whether to try or not, I believe the effort does not betray the results. unless it is already rich derivatives.
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April 24, 2018, 06:33:11 PM
 #346

Well, as Tiger Wood said: I win because I'm lucky. And the more I train, the more I become lucky ...
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April 25, 2018, 11:02:43 AM
 #347

I am not entirely surprised by this at all actually, anecdotally I have always felt people who achieved success where mainly in the right place right time. Whether that be born to a certain family or class, or to a certain country, or area of a country, these things all effect where we will end up. Good to know us average folk can still make it in this rigged world Wink
yes of course being rich is really determined by chance because all of us have a chance to be rich and no one can stop that.but if you are intelligent you know how to be rich and you can reach your goal because of your talent too.so it is up to a person who can manage their life.
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April 25, 2018, 11:06:41 AM
 #348

Nit entirely sure if financial success is solely reliant on chance alone. I mean yes chance plays a role in earning money. But a smart investment done in a proper time with a proper amount is invaluable. In this day and age, information is key to getting what you want. Being first to putting stake and just sitting back and see your money grow is not solely on chance. People actually work hard and study trends to earn. Chance is a factor.

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April 25, 2018, 11:50:59 AM
 #349

Being rich is according to fate and predestination

I disagree because moat of the time the high percentage of an individual to be rich is that he has intelligence and talent. It is the foundation to success. We can't rely on chances because it means that we are not confident enough in the aptitudes that one has.
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April 25, 2018, 11:58:12 AM
 #350

So i should blame chance for making me poor? I don't think so, i really think hard work and a certain measure of intelligence is key. I must admit, chance is a factor but not the whole deciding factor. Such thinking will actually put people into a passive state and just accept things happening in their lives. In my opinion, hard work is the key to success. Being born poor is not your, dying poor is. Then again, I won't disagree with scientific studies.

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April 25, 2018, 12:00:47 PM
 #351

Being rich is according to fate and predestination
yes i do believe in fate so i guess eventhough your an intellegent person if fate doesnt occur you and the chance that is not with you it will not determine you to being rich but rather being rich is just determined by chance rather than intellengence or talent because if you have that two but dont have the chance its useless.

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April 25, 2018, 12:35:52 PM
 #352

If anyone think that  intelligence or talent is not a major contributory factor to acquiring wealth in life then let him give the oposit a trial in his life. what you call chance to me does not exist because a formal and conscious preparation was made some day some time awaiting for that chance to come, infact chance only come to those who are prepared fore it.
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April 25, 2018, 12:46:35 PM
 #353

Being rich is according to fate and predestination
yes i do believe in fate so i guess eventhough your an intellegent person if fate doesnt occur you and the chance that is not with you it will not determine you to being rich but rather being rich is just determined by chance rather than intellengence or talent because if you have that two but dont have the chance its useless.

I will go with the study and believe that taking chances will be the road to sucess or richness , because if you will rely on your intelligence by not taking the simple chance that might made you rich, grabbing the oppurtunity to that business I believe the key to success.

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April 25, 2018, 12:51:29 PM
 #354

Quote
If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance

The most successful people are not the most talented, just the luckiest, a new computer model of wealth creation confirms. Taking that into account can maximize return on many kinds of investment.

The distribution of wealth follows a well-known pattern sometimes called an 80:20 rule: 80 percent of the wealth is owned by 20 percent of the people. Indeed, a report last year concluded that just eight men had a total wealth equivalent to that of the world’s poorest 3.8 billion people.

This seems to occur in all societies at all scales. It is a well-studied pattern called a power law that crops up in a wide range of social phenomena. But the distribution of wealth is among the most controversial because of the issues it raises about fairness and merit. Why should so few people have so much wealth?

The conventional answer is that we live in a meritocracy in which people are rewarded for their talent, intelligence, effort, and so on. Over time, many people think, this translates into the wealth distribution that we observe, although a healthy dose of luck can play a role.

But there is a problem with this idea: while wealth distribution follows a power law, the distribution of human skills generally follows a normal distribution that is symmetric about an average value. For example, intelligence, as measured by IQ tests, follows this pattern. Average IQ is 100, but nobody has an IQ of 1,000 or 10,000.

The same is true of effort, as measured by hours worked. Some people work more hours than average and some work less, but nobody works a billion times more hours than anybody else.

And yet when it comes to the rewards for this work, some people do have billions of times more wealth than other people. What’s more, numerous studies have shown that the wealthiest people are generally not the most talented by other measures.

What factors, then, determine how individuals become wealthy? Could it be that chance plays a bigger role than anybody expected? And how can these factors, whatever they are, be exploited to make the world a better and fairer place
?

Today we get an answer thanks to the work of Alessandro Pluchino at the University of Catania in Italy and a couple of colleagues. These guys have created a computer model of human talent and the way people use it to exploit opportunities in life. The model allows the team to study the role of chance in this process.

The results are something of an eye-opener. Their simulations accurately reproduce the wealth distribution in the real world. But the wealthiest individuals are not the most talented (although they must have a certain level of talent). They are the luckiest. And this has significant implications for the way societies can optimize the returns they get for investments in everything from business to science.

Pluchino and co’s model is straightforward. It consists of N people, each with a certain level of talent (skill, intelligence, ability, and so on). This talent is distributed normally around some average level, with some standard deviation. So some people are more talented than average and some are less so, but nobody is orders of magnitude more talented than anybody else.

This is the same kind of distribution seen for various human skills, or even characteristics like height or weight. Some people are taller or smaller than average, but nobody is the size of an ant or a skyscraper. Indeed, we are all quite similar
.

The computer model charts each individual through a working life of 40 years. During this time, the individuals experience lucky events that they can exploit to increase their wealth if they are talented enough.

However, they also experience unlucky events that reduce their wealth. These events occur at random.

At the end of the 40 years, Pluchino and co rank the individuals by wealth and study the characteristics of the most successful. They also calculate the wealth distribution. They then repeat the simulation many times to check the robustness of the outcome.

When the team rank individuals by wealth, the distribution is exactly like that seen in real-world societies. “The ‘80-20’ rule is respected, since 80 percent of the population owns only 20 percent of the total capital, while the remaining 20 percent owns 80 percent of the same capital,” report Pluchino and co.

That may not be surprising or unfair if the wealthiest 20 percent turn out to be the most talented. But that isn’t what happens. The wealthiest individuals are typically not the most talented or anywhere near it. “The maximum success never coincides with the maximum talent, and vice-versa,” say the researchers.

So if not talent, what other factor causes this skewed wealth distribution? “Our simulation clearly shows that such a factor is just pure luck,” say Pluchino and co.

The team shows this by ranking individuals according to the number of lucky and unlucky events they experience throughout their 40-year careers. “It is evident that the most successful individuals are also the luckiest ones,” they say. “And the less successful individuals are also the unluckiest ones.”

That has significant implications for society. What is the most effective strategy for exploiting the role luck plays in success?

Pluchino and co study this from the point of view of science research funding, an issue clearly close to their hearts. Funding agencies the world over are interested in maximizing their return on investment in the scientific world. Indeed, the European Research Council recently invested $1.7 million in a program to study serendipity—the role of luck in scientific discovery—and how it can be exploited to improve funding outcomes.

It turns out that Pluchino and co are well set to answer this question. They use their model to explore different kinds of funding models to see which produce the best returns when luck is taken into account.

The team studied three models, in which research funding is distributed equally to all scientists; distributed randomly to a subset of scientists; or given preferentially to those who have been most successful in the past. Which of these is the best strategy?

The strategy that delivers the best returns, it turns out, is to divide the funding equally among all researchers. And the second- and third-best strategies involve distributing it at random to 10 or 20 percent of scientists.

In these cases, the researchers are best able to take advantage of the serendipitous discoveries they make from time to time. In hindsight, it is obvious that the fact a scientist has made an important chance discovery in the past does not mean he or she is more likely to make one in the future.

A similar approach could also be applied to investment in other kinds of enterprises, such as small or large businesses, tech startups, education that increases talent, or even the creation of random lucky events.

Clearly, more work is needed here. What are we waiting for?

Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1802.07068 : Talent vs. Luck: The Role of Randomness in Success and Failure

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610395/if-youre-so-smart-why-arent-you-rich-turns-out-its-just-chance/

A very interesting spin on anything that has ever been said about money, success or wealth!

I don't know what to think about this. The scaling argument which says 1% of the human population shouldn't own 40% of the world's wealth due to them not having IQ's of 200,000 or talent proportional to the highly disproportionate stake of wealth they control is something that will take time for me to digest and think about. Its certainly a novel concept.

Its also very interesting that they attempted to model along lines of standard deviation and wound up with a historical 20/80 wealth distribution. I think this is something which could use more exposure and media coverage. Its not often relatively original or new perspectives like this come along and the paradigm shift which can accompany them can often take decades to be fully appreciated within a pop culture vein.

I don't know if I would believe in the title of your topic. But what I believe is that talent and intellect will give an individual a chance to be rich rather than those who stand by luck. Yes in cryptocurrency everyone is the same when it comes to growth in but sometimes those who are wise enough will still have a greater chances to outwit those who are basing only on luck at their trades.

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April 27, 2018, 02:21:01 AM
 #355

This is true. There are a lot of people who have worked hard their whole life and have nothing to show for it and I have met very intelligent people, some with incredible talent but they never made it and they never turned out rich, then you see people who are just starting out with no talent or brians, a slight turn of events and they end up rich with more money than they can use.
There is no way to deny that luck plays a factor when it comes to be rich, after all if it was just about working harder or to have the talent then all the people that work hard or that have talent will become rich and that is impossible, but at the same time those that were able to become rich have something else going on for them they have some kind of natural intelligence when it comes to money.

To begin with, I agree with you and your point in general. Just by hard work and intelligence alone, you won't become super rich like Bill Gates or Warren Buffett. I don't know much about Buffett and his lucky star, but Gates once upon a time had more luck than a few hundred people may have in their entire lifetime. With that said, though, if you are slightly more intelligent that the rest of the pack and not very much unlucky beside them, you can rightfully hope for a decent living even if you were not born into riches, especially if you put a good deal of effort in pursuing this end.
And you are completely correct there are also some studies that show that those that have an higher IQ earn more money than those that have a lower IQ so as long as you do not have terrible luck or just take terrible decisions then the chances that you will be fine by yourself are very high, and it is not really surprising someone that has an higher IQ can comprehend more difficult subjects that pay more.
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April 27, 2018, 04:16:34 AM
 #356

I think luck and good timing also has something to do with it. We have seen intelligent and hardworking people trying to make it but most of them dont.

Being ruthless and cunning are also traits that one should have to get rich. Step on all those who are in front and who are better than you. If you need to, kill them.
...I also believed luck is the biggest percentage as being rich and a lot of people suddenly got rich, even without enough intelligence and talent. Actually, chances it considered as luck, But the normal manner being rich is the intelligence with talent.
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April 27, 2018, 06:32:40 AM
 #357

Not all smart people are rich we can see beggars on the internet going viral because some of them are fluent in English while others are good in solving math problems. I think for some people it is their fate but for some they choose on what status of life they want to be. I know some people that are happy despite of being poor while some people who are rich are quite lonely.

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April 27, 2018, 06:37:11 AM
 #358

"There is a huge difference between those who made a lot of money and those who are rich," - Marlene Dietrich.

A smart or lucky person can get a lot of money, but only a wise person can save them.
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April 27, 2018, 07:20:27 AM
 #359

I beg to disagree to this we all know that each and all of us has the right timing and our own clock right but we must consider that we ourselves are needed to work hard and even have a smarter brain and good attitude in life,.
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April 27, 2018, 09:31:28 AM
 #360

"There is a huge difference between those who made a lot of money and those who are rich," - Marlene Dietrich.

A smart or lucky person can get a lot of money, but only a wise person can save them.
Being rich is having a plenty of money but intelligence and your whole attitude will see its difference.
In that quotation there can be a question for the rich and the man / women who knows of being a truly rich is not by money. The deep meaning of being rich is the character you build in your own not only the money.

 
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