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Author Topic: DID YOU THINk BITCOIN CAN REACH 500K IN THE END OF THIS YEAR  (Read 267 times)
amirshaf
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March 02, 2018, 02:42:33 PM
 #1

For my opinion will not can reach this price i can beilve i will pump till 30k . And i have to know Do you believe John McAfee is right about Bitcoin hitting $500,000 in 3 years?
It’s interesting that almost all existing analysis of cryptoassets are from the point of view of fundamentals (or lack thereof). It’s often useful to look at things quantitatively instead.


So here, what we really want to understand is the probability of bitcoin reaching $500,000. There are a few ways to do that.

My way is  we can assume a completely random process and take a “gambler’s ruin” perspective. What is the probability that a random process will hit $500,000 before it hits $0? Given that the price as of end 15 dec 2017 is about $23,000, we’d get $23.000/$500,000 = 5%.
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March 02, 2018, 03:00:26 PM
 #2

 I am beginning to think that McAfee is just having fun with bitcoin from creating fud on his twitter about binance to pumping up alt coins and being an obvious shill for them without doing research on them causing a dump on the markets.

With the amount of followers he has all it takes is one miscued message and any alt coin can be screwed up. Roll Eyes

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March 02, 2018, 03:27:48 PM
 #3

Not this year. Anything can happen but I don’t think we will see a recovery that quickly. It could take several more months of prices going sideways before we see all cryptocurrencies begin to recover.

I could see the price reaching $20,000 this year but maybe later in the year. Then I think prices will reach new highs and well beyond for many of the major cryptocurrencies.
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March 02, 2018, 03:30:42 PM
 #4

$55,000 per bitcoin?

Not this year imo, no. It’d take some seriously bullish news to rise that much. I think we’ll see something like $55,000 per bitcoin as a result of natural growth in a couple of years. It’ll most likely happen 6 - 12 months after the next halving.




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March 02, 2018, 03:47:38 PM
 #5

This year? impossible, 55k is just way too much, do you remember the bull run from last year where the price reached 20k? well, we would need to see a much larger bull run and that just means problems. Just imagine the FOMO wave that such a massive increase would create around Bitcoin, all that excitement and greed will be be followed by a correction of biblical proportions and widespread pessimism/negativity will take over the market, that's something I'd rather not see.

I'd say 55k is a long-term goal, i'm talking about 3-4 years until we that price.
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March 02, 2018, 06:49:58 PM
 #6

Yes, I believe we can surpass that this year although it may be tough. One thing we gotta consider is that when this institutional money comes in, it is going to pour in for months. If we saw Bitcoin rise from 5k to 20k, I would be hard pressed to believe we couldn't have a similar rise at the end of this year.

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March 02, 2018, 06:58:29 PM
 #7

I think it depends on governments. In my opinion governments play a critical role in 2018. If they accept bitcoin the price can rise very fast in a short time. But there is no guarantee. I personally think that it is possible.

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March 02, 2018, 07:06:27 PM
 #8

55k$ or more by the end of this year is possible, but followed by a brutal bear market.
500k$ in 3 years, no chance. BTC may never truly recover from the next bear market, if it loses the first mover advantage.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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March 02, 2018, 08:01:59 PM
 #9

I wouldn't count on McAfee's prediction since i'm seeing right now that he's just trying to hype up bitcoin and other cryptos for his own advantage. Heck, he's even doing pump and dumps right now which makes his stance on making crypto look good insignificant. $55k is quite a goal to achieve, though it's doable if we get a hype similar to the 2017 bull run given that we have a solid baseline @ $6000. More positive news would surely help boost the price up, but that isn't enough to bring in insane amount of money again

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March 02, 2018, 08:37:06 PM
 #10

This year? impossible, 55k is just way too much, do you remember the bull run from last year where the price reached 20k? well, we would need to see a much larger bull run and that just means problems. Just imagine the FOMO wave that such a massive increase would create around Bitcoin, all that excitement and greed will be be followed by a correction of biblical proportions and widespread pessimism/negativity will take over the market, that's something I'd rather not see.

I'd say 55k is a long-term goal, i'm talking about 3-4 years until we that price.

And what would a 20k suggestion warrant had it been proposed this time last year?

Anything can and will happen. What we've witnessed is the power of network effect and it should not be underestimated. 1 person getting involved in 2013 is now probably 20-100 people and every day that passes means more eventual onboarding.

I don't know if it'll be this year, but there will be a point where telephone numbers become real presuming BTC survives and it'll seem normal to the new arrivals. It's a straightforward consequence of more people chasing the same number of coins.

I only hope that exchanges have more of their shit together by that point because what's around now is still a long, long way from cutting it.

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March 02, 2018, 08:57:03 PM
 #11

i have to know Do you believe John McAfee is right about Bitcoin hitting $500,000 in 3 years?

this is something extremely difficult, I wonder where he was with his head when he made such a prediction, imagine a coin worth $ 500,000 each, this is even a great dream impossible to achieve. we have to be optimistic, but we can not exaggerate and make absurd predictions and lead other people to error, some people can even buy bitcoin thinking it will cost $ 500,000 and then these people will be disappointed.

...5%.

almost as impossible. I wonder why there are still people who listen to him (about price predition )

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March 02, 2018, 09:36:24 PM
 #12

Why did you start a thread talking about 55k and then dedicated most of your post to the price of 500k? 55k is achievable, especially if you think in terms of proportions. It's less than 3 times the ATH. We had a similar situation in 2013 with the ATH of 1000, then a fall to less than half of it and a group of people saying it's going to reach 3000, while others were laughing at them. We actually went to that 3x ATH last year and remained there for some time as it was a psychological barrier.
Somehow every time the price doubles or triples it hits that psychological barrier where people think it achieved something incredible. That's why we're now talking about 50k, because it seems to be so far away. In reality it's not!

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March 03, 2018, 12:34:39 AM
 #13

For my opinion will not can reach this price i can beilve i will pump till 30k . And i have to know Do you believe John McAfee is right about Bitcoin hitting $500,000 in 3 years?
It’s interesting that almost all existing analysis of cryptoassets are from the point of view of fundamentals (or lack thereof). It’s often useful to look at things quantitatively instead.


So here, what we really want to understand is the probability of bitcoin reaching $500,000. There are a few ways to do that.

My way is  we can assume a completely random process and take a “gambler’s ruin” perspective. What is the probability that a random process will hit $500,000 before it hits $0? Given that the price as of end 15 dec 2017 is about $23,000, we’d get $23.000/$500,000 = 5%.


John McAfee actually raised his prediction to $1 million within 3 years, if I remembered correctly. And his dick is on stake here.

Your assumptions are incorrect. Bitcoin isn't a gambling game, you cannot try to predict the probabilities of a future price by dividing the current price with the price target. Currency speculation is emotional and sometimes rational, not gambling.

Either way, I don't see BTC's potential to reach $500k/1 million this year, or even in 3 years time. I doubt an ATH will happen this year, as well. If it does it won't hit your $55k figure, that would be essentially 10x the bottom.

We're seeing markets being very stagnant in the opening months of the year which means that most likely this year will be quite sluggish with pumps littered here and there but no real direction. John McAfee said his prediction when everything was jolly good and now it's a entirely different picture.

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March 03, 2018, 12:38:31 AM
 #14

For my opinion will not can reach this price i can beilve i will pump till 30k . And i have to know Do you believe John McAfee is right about Bitcoin hitting $500,000 in 3 years?
It’s interesting that almost all existing analysis of cryptoassets are from the point of view of fundamentals (or lack thereof). It’s often useful to look at things quantitatively instead.


So here, what we really want to understand is the probability of bitcoin reaching $500,000. There are a few ways to do that.

My way is  we can assume a completely random process and take a “gambler’s ruin” perspective. What is the probability that a random process will hit $500,000 before it hits $0? Given that the price as of end 15 dec 2017 is about $23,000, we’d get $23.000/$500,000 = 5%.


I wouldn't put too much on what John McAfee is saying. He has been very bullish about bitcoin and most of his coins of the day are shitcoins anyways, and John trying to pump it because I'm sure that he has already stash tons of it and will take the profits if his dumb twitter followers will also bought it.

$50K for me is possible this year. It will be like x5 at $10K price so I don't think that it will be that hard to touch that at the end of the year.

But $500,000 in 3 years? I don't know. There will be so much factors needed to be at the exact moment to see at least $100K in the future. Let's cross that bridge when we come to it.

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March 03, 2018, 12:49:11 AM
 #15

And i have to know Do you believe John McAfee is right about Bitcoin hitting $500,000 in 3 years?
He changed it to $1,000,000. At first, I'm believing him with $500,000 but as the time goes by I'm having doubts with his prediction and even with his word about $500,000.
What is the probability that a random process will hit $500,000 before it hits $0?
Are you expecting that after a massive pump that will be held by bitcoin will be followed by a quick dump and will finally go to zero? News, adoption, market cap, more investors can lead bitcoin to that price and also to a negative one.

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March 03, 2018, 01:01:19 AM
 #16

I dont think itll reach 500k ever

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March 03, 2018, 02:20:44 AM
 #17

For my opinion will not can reach this price i can beilve i will pump till 30k . And i have to know Do you believe John McAfee is right about Bitcoin hitting $500,000 in 3 years?
It’s interesting that almost all existing analysis of cryptoassets are from the point of view of fundamentals (or lack thereof). It’s often useful to look at things quantitatively instead.


So here, what we really want to understand is the probability of bitcoin reaching $500,000. There are a few ways to do that.

My way is  we can assume a completely random process and take a “gambler’s ruin” perspective. What is the probability that a random process will hit $500,000 before it hits $0? Given that the price as of end 15 dec 2017 is about $23,000, we’d get $23.000/$500,000 = 5%.


$500K? Possible, but HIGHLY unprobable...

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March 03, 2018, 02:49:07 AM
 #18

$500K at the end of this year? Not completely impossible, but NO. Hell no. I wish, but no. No way.

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March 03, 2018, 02:50:30 AM
 #19

I dont think itll reach 500k ever

Hey TERA, you are a true party popper!

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March 03, 2018, 05:20:44 AM
 #20

$500K at the end of this year? Not completely impossible, but NO. Hell no. I wish, but no. No way.
I'd say the same that it's completely impossible for this year. My limit for the price would be $30,000 - $50,000.
Too much asking for the price of bitcoin. Let it recover first from the dip that it went through.
Don't believe with high speculations that are just giving out numbers without technical analysis.

       
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