Bullish scenario

[afbitcoins]

Note: All updates posted at the end of the thread.

In light of the Silk Road take down I've been thinking along the lines of a large new rising channel, pictured below. This is slightly less steep than the channel i've been following on my blog. The silk road dip has confirmed the bottom line of this new channel I'm watching.

The fact that Fed is now seizing and accumulating bitcoins is bullish development in my view.

Red line shows slope of resistance, I expect we'll meander sideways staying within the channel and under that resistance for a while. Might not get resolved until late November, then I expect we'll break up, staying within the channel.

[1714765529]

1714765529

[600watt]

found this in memespeculation thread...

[afbitcoins]

Yup definitely bullish

[annette786]

Yup definitely bullish

Well, I may be down xxxx today, but it just may be worth it to see this.  Nice shark.

[notme]

Heres what I'm thinking, breakout coming, either by busting through resistance, or dropping to lower parallel then busting through !

http://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/resistance-is-futile/

 I also have a bearish scenario in back of my mind, but hoping won't need that.

You should have let that nagging bear out of hibernation.

[afbitcoins]

Edit: This post is now also copied to the first post on the thread.


In light of the Silk Road take down I've been thinking along the lines of a large new rising channel, pictured below. This is slightly less steep than the channel i first posted at top of thread. The silk road dip has confirmed the bottom line of this new channel I'm watching.

The fact that Fed is now seizing and accumulating bitcoins is bullish development in my view.

Red line shows slope of resistance, I expect we'll meander sideways staying within the channel and under that resistance for a while. Might not get resolved until late November, then I expect we'll break up, staying within the channel.

[derpinheimer]

lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?

[afbitcoins]

lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?

It is what it is

[derpinheimer]

lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?

It is what it is

What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA.

[adamstgBit]

lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?

It is what it is

What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA.

i'll take lines on a chart over emotionally bear talk, anyday.

[afbitcoins]

lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?

It is what it is

What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA.

Not sure I follow, why is it not TA ?

The analysis I perform is based on trendlines. The slope is well defined from a trend which goes back months in time to before the bubble peak. The flash crash as you call it, could have fallen to any level above or below where it did, however it fell to the exact same line on my lower channel creating a second touch point. This could be co-incidence to some, to me this is a good confirmation of the new slope of the trendline. It is a bullish trend line. The other trend lines above on my chart have many touch points which gives me confidence in the slope.

If you are here to attack technical analysis I suggest you wasting your time, this is the speculation forum.

I thought there'd be more bears here though.

[derpinheimer]

lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?

It is what it is

What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA.

i'll take lines on a chart over emotionally bear talk, anyday.

At least emotional talk can be funny. Lines on a chart is just too common.

lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?

It is what it is

What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA.

Not sure I follow, why does it seem like a joke ?

The slope is well defined from a trend which goes back months in time to before the bubble peak. The flash crash as you call it, could have fallen to any level above or below where it did, however it fell to the exact same line on my lower channel creating a second touch point. This could be co-incidence to some, to me this is a good confirmation of the new slope of the trendline. It is a bullish trend line. The other trend lines above on my chart have many touch points which gives me confidence in the slope.

If you are here to attack technical analysis I suggest you wasting your time, this is the speculation forum.

I thought there'd be more bears here though. Have you noticed how all the bitcoin bears are ripple fanatics ?

A flashcrash is not effected significantly by a support level for obvious reasons (Bids dont get the chance to fill in. The SOLE reason for the price to stop falling is that selling has stopped) Support is BUYING pressure. Not a lack of selling pressure.

Imagine one more person offloading 5k stash. Now the low would be ~105, slightly below the trend. Or one less person, slightly above. The fact it ended very near this line is nothing but coincidence.

[afbitcoins]

lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?

It is what it is

What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA.

i'll take lines on a chart over emotionally bear talk, anyday.

At least emotional talk can be funny. Lines on a chart is just too common.

lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?

It is what it is

What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA.

Not sure I follow, why does it seem like a joke ?

The slope is well defined from a trend which goes back months in time to before the bubble peak. The flash crash as you call it, could have fallen to any level above or below where it did, however it fell to the exact same line on my lower channel creating a second touch point. This could be co-incidence to some, to me this is a good confirmation of the new slope of the trendline. It is a bullish trend line. The other trend lines above on my chart have many touch points which gives me confidence in the slope.

If you are here to attack technical analysis I suggest you wasting your time, this is the speculation forum.

I thought there'd be more bears here though. Have you noticed how all the bitcoin bears are ripple fanatics ?

A flashcrash is not effected significantly by a support level for obvious reasons (Bids dont get the chance to fill in. The SOLE reason for the price to stop falling is that selling has stopped) Support is BUYING pressure. Not a lack of selling pressure.

Imagine one more person offloading 5k stash. Now the low would be ~105, slightly below the trend. Or one less person, slightly above. The fact it ended very near this line is nothing but coincidence.

Must be great being the omnipotent one

[adamstgBit]

lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?

It is what it is

What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA.

i'll take lines on a chart over emotionally bear talk, anyday.

At least emotional talk can be funny. Lines on a chart is just too common.

lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?

It is what it is

What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA.

Not sure I follow, why does it seem like a joke ?

The slope is well defined from a trend which goes back months in time to before the bubble peak. The flash crash as you call it, could have fallen to any level above or below where it did, however it fell to the exact same line on my lower channel creating a second touch point. This could be co-incidence to some, to me this is a good confirmation of the new slope of the trendline. It is a bullish trend line. The other trend lines above on my chart have many touch points which gives me confidence in the slope.

If you are here to attack technical analysis I suggest you wasting your time, this is the speculation forum.

I thought there'd be more bears here though. Have you noticed how all the bitcoin bears are ripple fanatics ?

A flashcrash is not effected significantly by a support level for obvious reasons (Bids dont get the chance to fill in. The SOLE reason for the price to stop falling is that selling has stopped) Support is BUYING pressure. Not a lack of selling pressure.

Imagine one more person offloading 5k stash. Now the low would be ~105, slightly below the trend. Or one less person, slightly above. The fact it ended very near this line is nothing but coincidence.

prediction: there will be over 10K coins sold in the next 24 hours, and price will move up.

[smoothie]

lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?

It is what it is

What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA.

i'll take lines on a chart over emotionally bear talk, anyday.

At least emotional talk can be funny. Lines on a chart is just too common.

lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?

It is what it is

What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA.

Not sure I follow, why does it seem like a joke ?

The slope is well defined from a trend which goes back months in time to before the bubble peak. The flash crash as you call it, could have fallen to any level above or below where it did, however it fell to the exact same line on my lower channel creating a second touch point. This could be co-incidence to some, to me this is a good confirmation of the new slope of the trendline. It is a bullish trend line. The other trend lines above on my chart have many touch points which gives me confidence in the slope.

If you are here to attack technical analysis I suggest you wasting your time, this is the speculation forum.

I thought there'd be more bears here though. Have you noticed how all the bitcoin bears are ripple fanatics ?

A flashcrash is not effected significantly by a support level for obvious reasons (Bids dont get the chance to fill in. The SOLE reason for the price to stop falling is that selling has stopped) Support is BUYING pressure. Not a lack of selling pressure.

Imagine one more person offloading 5k stash. Now the low would be ~105, slightly below the trend. Or one less person, slightly above. The fact it ended very near this line is nothing but coincidence.

prediction: there will be over 10K coins sold in the next 24 hours, and price will move up.

In the form of a gigantic spring and yawn concerning SR shutdown. 

+1

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I thought you were a logscale analyst. Why the linear scale?

[afbitcoins]

Yes I think log scales are best to get true perspective of bitcoins because they are increasing rapidly on a short timescale, and shows the bubbles in context of the bigger picture. TradingView doesn't have the option of a log scale (but has excellent features for technical analysis), I guess using TradingView has started me looking at linear scales more than before. I'd say linear is a good approximation on shorter timescales.

[notme]

Yes I think log scales are best to get true perspective of bitcoins because they are increasing rapidly on a short timescale, and shows the bubbles in context of the bigger picture. TradingView doesn't have the option of a log scale (but has excellent features for technical analysis), I guess using TradingView has started me looking at linear scales more than before. I'd say linear is a good approximation on shorter timescales.

TradingView does have log scale, it's just hidden.  Go to the gear, then "scales".

Linear is a good approximation for small time scales.  It is also good for stable (sideways) behavior.  This usually only happens on small timescales with bitcoin, but there have been some periods of long term stability, particularly with the shorting that happened over $5.  Eventually, the position got away from them. (cough p@40 cough)

[Spekulatius]

Yes I think log scales are best to get true perspective of bitcoins because they are increasing rapidly on a short timescale, and shows the bubbles in context of the bigger picture. TradingView doesn't have the option of a log scale (but has excellent features for technical analysis), I guess using TradingView has started me looking at linear scales more than before. I'd say linear is a good approximation on shorter timescales.

TradingView does have log scale, it's just hidden.  Go to the gear, then "scales".

Linear is a good approximation for small time scales.  It is also good for stable (sideways) behavior.  This usually only happens on small timescales with bitcoin, but there have been some periods of long term stability, particularly with the shorting that happened over $5.  Eventually, the position got away from them. (cough p@40 cough)

Its even easier to right-click on the scale to the right and select "Log Scale", done!
I guess most people are basing their trading decissions on linear scale charts. As unrealistic as linear charts are, they are the most commonly used, so their predictions tend to come true until traders favor log scales over linear scales

[afbitcoins]

Thanks for the tip! You're right there is a log view, whadyaknow