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Author Topic: Altcoin/Bitcoin ratio  (Read 62 times)
tiny_bits
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March 05, 2018, 04:37:17 PM
 #1

Hi guys,

I was wondering how to ask this concisely (not wasting your time  Wink ).
Just in short sentence : Why does volatility/change of bitcoin differ from big altcoins like ethereum?

I mean there are so many reasons to believe that the future belongs to ethereum (or similar token/cryptocurrencies) such as
fast transaction time, smart-contract, so many ICOs out there which are based on Ether,....
but nevertheless, if we look back to the last 2 weeks , we see ethereum remained almost constant in value (versus $$) ,
but bitcoin is soaring up like crazy (and steadily  Huh ).

Feb 10 to now : Bitcoin : 8800$  --> 11500$
Feb 10 to now : Ether   : 850$  --> 850$

I know some folks out there , would probably start talking about resistance/support or some kind of technical analysis.
But guys! technical analysis is just there to formulate what is happening in the past and try its best to predict future.
They never ever say "why" a certain asset change of value (and besides, majority believe bitcoin/crypto don't follow  usual
technical indicators).

Some people say they are big bitcoin-holders who manipulate the market. Ok!.... that's one idea!
But then it means such thing doesn't applicable to Ethereum. Right?

So any good thoughts , so that we can learn something for the next time.....

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BrewMaster
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March 05, 2018, 05:06:55 PM
 #2

Why does volatility/change of bitcoin differ from big altcoins like ethereum?

because you are not looking at the correct picture here and your numbers are also wrong. for example in Feb 10 alone ETH price went down from $914 to $830 (-9%).
also you took some arbitrary dates. for example why not look at prices from January till now? ETH drop from $1430 to $850 (-40%).

you see altcoins are MORE volatile if not the same.

but nevertheless, if we look back to the last 2 weeks , we see ethereum remained almost constant in value (versus $$) ,
but bitcoin is soaring up like crazy (and steadily  Huh ).

not really.
in past two weeks ETH has gone from $976 down to $794 and then up to $850 again. that is a HUGE volatility and remember that percentage of change is important not amount. from $2 down to $1 is 50% drop so is drop from $10000 to $5000

and bitcoin is not soaring either. it is mostly sideways. it is stuck behind the $12k resistance and goes up and down until it breaks it

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March 05, 2018, 05:32:15 PM
 #3

There is no golden rule to follow when we are talking about the correlation of Bitcoin to altcoins price.
Don't try to find some hidden formula behind it, it is all depending on current market sentiments and state of crypto-economy.
Please remember that newer of better technology is not always translates into greater momentum or price gain. It is not that simple with altcoins.
Bitcoin is, for now, the main benchmark of the crypto world and for now, I can't imagine the situation when BTC dominance will cease.


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tiny_bits
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March 05, 2018, 05:35:21 PM
 #4

Hi BrewMaster,

My numbers might be a little up or down (within 5% accuracy), but in general sense they are correct. I double checked.
The point here is that the ethereum/bitcoin ratio is going down almost steadily.
I don't want argue here the difference percentage/relative or absolute values. I think both of us understand this.

I don't know how to add a picture to this text, otherwise I would take a snapshot of ether/bitcoin ratio from Feb-1 to today.
You can easily see it is dropping . And apart from one peak (around Feb 26), it has been almost monotonically dropping.

Fluctuation of Ethereum itself also doesn't count. Because basically we are referring here to ether/btc ratio, not the absolute price of ether itself.

(source coinmarketcap.com)
ether/bitcoin = 0.1225 Feb 1, 2018
ether/bitcoin = 0.7455 Mar 5, 2018

From 0.1225 to 0.7455, there is quite a difference.
My question (as the title says) is about this ratio. 

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March 05, 2018, 07:24:17 PM
 #5

From a logical point of view I think it's this. Bitcoin over the last few months, let's say since beginning of November has increased less than 2x in price whereas ethereum is about 3x its price. I feel that the larger growth Ethereum had means that it's more in a period of consolidation whereas bitcoin is still clambering to get back to the price where it was previously. Also bitcoin tends to perform better in slow periods than ethereum, ethereum's growth is very burst like.

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March 05, 2018, 07:41:55 PM
 #6

Here is the picture you requested OP, and I believe the reason ETH has slipped from 12 million sats to 7 million sats is because Bitcoin has been growing the past couple of weeks. That generally means people will leave their altcoin positions, in order to ride the BTC bullish train. Now there are more variables than just one, but I believe this to be the main one.


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tiny_bits
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March 05, 2018, 09:30:22 PM
 #7

Thanks for the picture.
tiny_bits
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April 10, 2018, 02:56:22 PM
 #8

Hi there,

I posted this like one month ago. Having one month passed, nice to look at this post again:

Although in such a low market, probably nobody cares about ethereum anymore ,
(and this low crypto-market was expected as I said somewhere else. 
Without creating a real value (and I mean "real") , btc is doomed to fail , but people here are too young and exuberant to care much about this
)

nevertheless it is good to look back at this post to have a better understanding

I started this post on March 5, asking why eth/btc ratio is systemically falling. Some said it was just ups and downs of market and Ethereum will rise again. I think now it is safe to say (having the last 2.5 months) that Ethereum will never rise again, unless a very substantial thing happen in market (and to Ether).

My observation back then was correct and Ethereum was on a roll-off road . Now having looked back, it is pretty obvious what happened:

In the beginning of this year, we had a ICO-bubble, everybody bought Ether to participate in so many existing ICOs. That raised the price of Ethereum big time. later this year (starting from Feb 1) the cypto market goes into recession (i.e. not many ICOs or not much interest in them) while a lot of Ether was on the hand of ICO-holders. They also have their own costs and needs. So they started selling their Ethers, while there was no buyer. This pushed the price of Ether more and more down. Basically the same usual story when a lot of sellers exist but few buyers.

Nowadays, ether is not so hot anymore and among other altcoin is relatively falling (in respect to BTC) and all together (with BTC) falling because crypto is not in the spotlight anymore (partially due to new market turbulence because of the ongoing trade-war, but also partially due to not delivering a real value by crypto).

What I missed here, is somebody who back then on March 5 could have come up with a good explanation for this. But there was none. Pity.
After that, I rarely come to this forum.


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April 10, 2018, 03:28:18 PM
 #9

As i see if bitcoins price goes down etherium also goes down back in december the price of bitcoin os almost 20,000$ and etherium also following bitcoin price at 1000$ and now bitcoin price is 6000$ to 7000$ And etherium also fall down to 300$ to 400$.
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April 10, 2018, 03:35:17 PM
 #10

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/

Looks like the graphs meet again after the big correction, but then again, this was the case with basically all cryptos, since the Bitcoin crash crashed everything else as well. Now notice how Ethereum is bleeding again against Bitcoin (orange graph is starting to diverge again upwards while green graph is going down) which could be an indicator of a Bitcoin bottom and the start of the next run towards ATH for the summer, which would result in another alt-pocalypse (people dumping alts to not miss BTC going to Pluto)
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