Bearish Scenario

[600watt]

It's not coming back guys...

Police Arrest 8 In International Silk Road Busts [npr.org]

drug trade cannot be killed. when they took down pablo escobar (which enterprise dwarfes sr), what had the us and columbian prohibitionists achieved ? columbian drug trade split up into thousands of small scale enterprises. they took out the big guy and ended up with a much harder to control hoard of little guys. more drugs were produced/sold/smuggled then before.

[ElectricMucus]

It's not coming back guys...

Police Arrest 8 In International Silk Road Busts [npr.org]

drug trade cannot be killed. when they took down pablo escobar (which enterprise dwarfes sr), what had the us and columbian prohibitionists achieved ? columbian drug trade split up into thousands of small scale enterprises. they took out the big guy and ended up with a much harder to control hoard of little guys. more drugs were produced/sold/smuggled then before.

Yeah that is entirely the same thing as sending drugs to the consumer via postal service.

[mp420]

It's not coming back guys...

Police Arrest 8 In International Silk Road Busts [npr.org]

drug trade cannot be killed. when they took down pablo escobar (which enterprise dwarfes sr), what had the us and columbian prohibitionists achieved ? columbian drug trade split up into thousands of small scale enterprises. they took out the big guy and ended up with a much harder to control hoard of little guys. more drugs were produced/sold/smuggled then before.

Yeah that is entirely the same thing as sending drugs to the consumer via postal service.

What made Silk Road so useful was not Silk Road in and of itself but the concept of using Bitcoin and Tor to do mail order drug trade. Even though it's likely most of the bigger players on SR will get caught, I'm sure there are already vendors on other tor market sites who never used SR. And more will emerge.

The ecosystem will adapt. There's an immense demand for illegal substances all over the world.

[Scott J]

It's not coming back guys...

Police Arrest 8 In International Silk Road Busts [npr.org]

drug trade cannot be killed. when they took down pablo escobar (which enterprise dwarfes sr), what had the us and columbian prohibitionists achieved ? columbian drug trade split up into thousands of small scale enterprises. they took out the big guy and ended up with a much harder to control hoard of little guys. more drugs were produced/sold/smuggled then before.

Yeah that is entirely the same thing as sending drugs to the consumer via postal service.

This was happening long before SR and has been ongoing since the bust.

What SR did was put this all out in the open and made tor/bitcoin use compulsory.

The pot-smoking public now know about this and will just be moving to existing sites or waiting for another to pop up.

[ElectricMucus]

I'm sure there are already vendors on other tor market sites who never used SR

sure

I think there aren't.

[adamstgBit]

I'm sure there are already vendors on other tor market sites who never used SR

sure

well ya... someone even listed some the dark urls yesterday.

[ElectricMucus]

I'm sure there are already vendors on other tor market sites who never used SR

sure

well ya... someone even listed some the dark urls yesterday.

so what?

[adamstgBit]

I'm sure there are already vendors on other tor market sites who never used SR

sure

well ya... someone even listed some the dark urls yesterday.

so what?

exactly!

[ElectricMucus]

The sellers there gonna get busted eventually if they did business on SR recently. Then, who do you think gonna buy there now, under these conditions?

[ElectricMucus]

well?

[Adrian-x]

It's not coming back guys...

Police Arrest 8 In International Silk Road Busts [npr.org]

What is more interesting is no drug busts scheduled for machinegun carrying killers or drug pushers at schools.
just the high profile, non violent elusive soft targets.

[adamstgBit]

ElectricMucus

have you ever bought any drugs?

[rampantparanoia]

It's not coming back guys...

Police Arrest 8 In International Silk Road Busts [npr.org]

What is more interesting is no drug busts scheduled for machinegun carrying killers or drug pushers at schools.
just the high profile, non violent elusive soft targets.

everyone knows gandhi was a terrorist. so was martin luther king jr.

EVERYONE KNOWS.

come on man, get with the program.

[Adrian-x]

The ecosystem will adapt.

The untold story is:
You can't push drugs if you are on tor.
You don't use violence to compete for market access.
Your success is dependent on honest and reputable behaviour.
Civilians are safer for it.

[600watt]

It's not coming back guys...

Police Arrest 8 In International Silk Road Busts [npr.org]

drug trade cannot be killed. when they took down pablo escobar (which enterprise dwarfes sr), what had the us and columbian prohibitionists achieved ? columbian drug trade split up into thousands of small scale enterprises. they took out the big guy and ended up with a much harder to control hoard of little guys. more drugs were produced/sold/smuggled then before.

Yeah that is entirely the same thing as sending drugs to the consumer via postal service.

what i was trying to get across was that it will not get stopped by police action. in less than a year there will be more sophisticated ways to buy/sell drugs online. to use hillary´s words: "there is just too much money in it"
technology will serve.

[Adrian-x]

But Bitcoin is something else also, it's a proof of concept, more academic work rather than what it is made out to be now. That alone doesn't have to be a bad thing, but that it wasn't made to handle the requirements very well is. The distributed blockchain for example is prohibitive expensive, it doesn't suit to store every transaction ever made on every node. The list goes on, proof of work consumes too much energy, transaction conformation time is to long to be suited for a POS system, etc...

It's a immature concept in every way, and one way or the other it is going to be replaced by a successor which was made with those things in mind, not just patched.
OK enough digressions.

This idea is not digression in the long term bear scenario, just a digressions short term.
But honestly you don't need Bitcoin to be a POS system to be successful, it would be better used as a means of settlement much like gold was in the early 1900's and the excessive energy usage really just results in waste heat, and in any efficient system waste provides food for another part of the system, so it isn't waste but an available resource.  

So while I agree it is a proof of concept I don't share your pessimism.  

[ElectricMucus]

ElectricMucus

have you ever bought any drugs?

there are illegal coffeshops where I live.

[ElectricMucus]

But Bitcoin is something else also, it's a proof of concept, more academic work rather than what it is made out to be now. That alone doesn't have to be a bad thing, but that it wasn't made to handle the requirements very well is. The distributed blockchain for example is prohibitive expensive, it doesn't suit to store every transaction ever made on every node. The list goes on, proof of work consumes too much energy, transaction conformation time is to long to be suited for a POS system, etc...

It's a immature concept in every way, and one way or the other it is going to be replaced by a successor which was made with those things in mind, not just patched.
OK enough digressions.

This idea is not digression in the long term bear scenario, just a digressions short term.
But honestly you don't need Bitcoin to be a POS system to be successful, it would be better used as a means of settlement much like gold was in the early 1900's and the excessive energy usage really just results in waste heat, and in any efficient system waste provides food for another part of the system, so it isn't waste but an available resource. 

So while I agree it is a proof of concept I don't share your pessimism.   

The optimists also advertise Bitcoin as a tool which supposedly has those characteristics, and while it hasn't much of the speculation is based on these misinformed decisions. 

[Adrian-x]

there are illegal coffeshops where I live.

Do they sell illegal coffee, or is coffeeshop a euphemism for something else?  

[TERA]

A website going down was one thing but if the MERCHANTS keep getting busted left and right, then the network of trust will be broken and fear will take over,. Some business may continue but the average joe will drop out, decreasing volume/demand. Get your fiat ready.