600k, 27k FBI seizure theories

[Elwar]

In theory, if DPR had 600k of BTC and will not have access to it or be able to give access to it for a long time that should mean the the short term price should go up 5% (5% of the BTC are essentially out of circulation).

Also, if the FBI sells 27k BTC all at once that would drive the price down quite a bit. While 27k is not a huge percentage of the bitcoin network it would be a huge percentage of trade volume, all in the sell direction. A current drop of 27k BTC on MtGox would drop the price $20/BTC (which would likely spark a larger dive). Even if they sell it at public auction, someone will buy it for less than the dollar value and would turn around and sell most of it to recoup their investment.

How do you think this will all affect the price now and in the future?

[adamstgBit]

the FBI isn't going to sell the bitcoins... thats like saying they will smoke the weed they confiscate      wait a min    

[BitChick]

the FBI isn't going to sell the bitcoins... thats like saying they will smoke the weed they confiscate      wait a min    

Hopefully they hold them for a long time and then pay off the national debt when they are worth $1,000,000 each. 

Of course, they may never be able to access them though.

[derpinheimer]

the FBI isn't going to sell the bitcoins... thats like saying they will smoke the weed they confiscate      wait a min    

Hopefully they hold them for a long time and then pay off the national debt when they are worth $1,000,000 each. 

Of course, they may never be able to access them though.

If theyre ever worth 1,000,000 USD, its because the USD crashed. Not that BTC rose that much. LOL

[ArticMine]

I would be very surprised if DPR had 10% of the 600000 BTC left when he was arrested. What many forget is that the 600000 BTC represent the gross income from SilkRoad between January 2011 and September 2013. For most of this time the BTC / USD was in the single digits, or low double digits and for some time even in the double cents. The site had expenses not only servers and hosting but also employees and other expenses typical of this type of business. An example of the latter is, if the allegations made are proven correct, hitmen to deal with employee theft. Then there is also DPR's expenses which given the nature of his business would likely have included "sampling the merchandise".

Now what will the US government do with the seized BTC? First before the US government can do anything with the BTC the wheels of justice have to finish turning. This will not happen for months if not years. The one certain thing is that governments are not known for acting fast at the best of times. Now present the government bureaucracy with an asset for disposition for which they have no policy or precedent and the most likely response of the bureaucracy is inaction. Who knows the private keys for 1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX might just end up in Fort Knox for the "time being".

[mp420]

Now present the government bureaucracy with an asset for disposition for which they have no policy or precedent and the most likely response of the bureaucracy is inaction. Who knows the private keys for 1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX might just end up in Fort Knox for the "time being".

Would be really funny if the next whistleblower leaked the top secret documents that include the keys.

[TERA]

I'm going to place a bid around $1 on bitstamp just in case...

[derpinheimer]

I'm going to place a bid around $1 on bitstamp just in case...

Funny, but I feel the better choice is a higher, but still very low bid. Like $50. Still snatching an incredible deal, but dont have to deal with, "OMG, it wont went to $1.01!"

Of course this is nonsense because the govt wouldnt market sell on bitstamp [Or would they... top dollar with market sells on all exchanges  ]

[LHB]

seems they couldn't have found all the working funds, not profit/commission money....the actual funds on deposit user wallets $3.8mil wouldn't cover these outstanding escrow. top ten sellers lost a LOT of BTC, especially one's shipping worldwide. a mega-vendor like supertrips or any international bulk seller who stays in escrow would have had WEEKS worth of orders cycling thru ...

example: even if the average international mail turnover figured as 2 weeks, (bet 20 days closer is to truth) and orders averaged $750. in this example the wallet would hold almost 800K alone and I'd expect any bulk Coke, MDMA, Meth..etc.... vendors all could easily have had 500K in escrow. even domestic.

at the most the funds seized were 1/2 to 1/3 of the operating funds (escrow and balances).

who could guess how many coins DPR had as his own, or where they are deposited. he could have been Private a Financial Backer in BFL and lost it all even after receiving commissions from the sales feeding Josh's rampant Cocaine and dildo addiction... he could have had every satoshi coded then hidden within Yakuza style tattoo's covering his arms, back neck and penis....or maybe "Yakuza style tattoo's covering his arms, back neck and penis" is the passphrase to his brain wallet

[600watt]

I would be very surprised if DPR had 10% of the 600000 BTC left when he was arrested. What many forget is that the 600000 BTC represent the gross income from SilkRoad between January 2011 and September 2013. For most of this time the BTC / USD was in the single digits, or low double digits and for some time even in the double cents. The site had expenses not only servers and hosting but also employees and other expenses typical of this type of business. An example of the latter is, if the allegations made are proven correct, hitmen to deal with employee theft. Then there is also DPR's expenses which given the nature of his business would likely have included "sampling the merchandise".

this. all this talk about this virtual super treasure is nonsense. the press just loves those astronomical figures.


ot but funny: here is a real super treasure waiting for you...

http://www.businessinsider.com/report-26-billion-left-at-moscows-sheremetyevo-airport-2013-9

[ElectricMucus]

They gonna auction them off, like anything else they confiscate which isn't cash.

The 600k would either be traded by DPR with the curt for a deal or if not he'd be the first prisoner with $80mil onin his head, I can't wait to see how that would turn out.
Every outcome would be hilarious.

[viboracecata]

I'm going to place a bid around $1 on bitstamp just in case...

hehe, can not buy bit cents now

[painlord2k]

They gonna auction them off, like anything else they confiscate which isn't cash.

The 600k would either be traded by DPR with the curt for a deal or if not he'd be the first prisoner with $80mil onin his head, I can't wait to see how that would turn out.
Every outcome would be hilarious.

If the 80 M become 8 billions or maybe 80 billions (USD), I suppose this is enough to pay the POTUS and the concerned Governnors to pardon him for 1 B. Or promise 1 B for the individual(s) freeing him from jail and moving him on a safe harbour (just to continue the "pirate" narrative).

[ElectricMucus]

They gonna auction them off, like anything else they confiscate which isn't cash.

The 600k would either be traded by DPR with the curt for a deal or if not he'd be the first prisoner with $80mil onin his head, I can't wait to see how that would turn out.
Every outcome would be hilarious.

If the 80 M become 8 billions or maybe 80 billions (USD), I suppose this is enough to pay the POTUS and the concerned Governnors to pardon him for 1 B. Or promise 1 B for the individual(s) freeing him from jail and moving him on a safe harbour (just to continue the "pirate" narrative).

Unlikely, but cooperation with the prosecutor can go a long way. Possibly between an effective lifetime sentence or a "mere" decade behind bars.

[clock27]

It'll definatly be a long time before those BTC are back in circulation if ever lol

[kcud_dab]

Final balance of 1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX is now 29,496.74824864 BTC
-> http://blockchain.info/address/1F1tAaz5x1HUXrCNLbtMDqcw6o5GNn4xqX

[Scott J]

Another 136.47811354 BTC just hit the address..

[Zaih]

They caught the founder. They didn't catch the bloke who took over in mid 2011 (The guy in the Forbes interview).

Even if they didn't sell any coins they profited, the bloke who got caught wouldn't have the 600k.

[ElectricMucus]

They caught the founder. They didn't catch the bloke who took over in mid 2011 (The guy in the Forbes interview).

Even if they didn't sell any coins they profited, the bloke who got caught wouldn't have the 600k.

You don't know that.

so... bullshit