Gox coins dumpage - what the screeching hell?

[Tzupy]

...
I hate to say it, but sentiment now truly is like 2014. If we're entering a bear market, everyone seems to be in denial about it.

My feeling is that it's like June 2013.

[1713486807]

1713486807

[exstasie]

I hate to say it, but sentiment now truly is like 2014. If we're entering a bear market, everyone seems to be in denial about it.

Gimme a blow by blow rundown of why this is 2014 redux. Where are the parallels? There's been a bubble of course. What else about the current scene convinces you we're in for years of grind again?

I didn't say this is a 2014 redux. As I've said, the price fractals are more representative of mid-2012 or early 2013.

I was just commenting on the bullish sentiment. Very few people believe we can be entering a bear market (mostly permabears who never profit from BTC upside). Sentiment has been extremely hopeful and dismissive of bearish scenarios for the past few months. Up until yesterday, Crypto Twitter has been exuberant, even though the alt market has been dismal. And unfortunately, shorts have been closing into this drop, so there's not much to squeeze. Bulls are just hoping that knife catchers show up. Bears are in control.

I sure hope bulls make a stand off the $9,000 area because it will be technically meaningful. But I traded heavily the entire year of 2014 and I hate to say it, but recent sentiment is reminiscent.

[followmenot]

This is possibly one of the dumbest ideas I have ever seen. Dumping coins in this big batches is also making him lose money. What was he thinking? (if its true). And yeah sadly we are truly in bear market now which will be very hard to recover.

[TheQuin]

This is possibly one of the dumbest ideas I have ever seen. Dumping coins in this big batches is also making him lose money. What was he thinking? (if its true). And yeah sadly we are truly in bear market now which will be very hard to recover.

Most of it it seems to be idle speculation. Having read the official document https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20180307_report.pdf all it actually confirms is that they sold 35,841.00701BTC at an average price of $10,0026.92 between 27th September 2017 and 7th March 2018. My guess is that would have happened in a number of OTC deals staggered over that time period. If they had got around the 18k mark then yes you could conclude they dumped on the highs and started the sell-off but that doesn't really add up when the only got 10k.

[arpon11]

And he have more than 100k coins to dump still.

The bears are probably loving this.

No matter what he is doing the time will come when bitcoin will get to from this bearish stage some of this guy has put it.  I think we have more things to think about than what those fellow can do.  The bears are having the best days today because  there is a lot of FUD being created and we most understand that most of this type of act are be done by the greedy individual.

[m.vina]

This pic was very revealing to me:



I can't believe this dumbass logged in to some exchange and sold an insane amount of bitcoin in batches instead of going OTC like he should. There must be some sort of insider trading going on. This guy has to be an agent hired to crash the bitcoin price because governments were getting scared at the bull run. If it wasn't for this, we would be at 30k by now.

I don't believe in coincidences when it comes to big money flows. Someone has made a lot of money out of this. Insider trading has happened im sure. This is insane.

I believe this is a good theory, conspiring with large entities before selling BTC through exchanges in order. Could be the largest PUMP and DUMP ever.
But in the end its still a theory, we have no way of verifying that the amounts sold in red font are from mt. gox wallets.

[TheQuin]

I believe this is a good theory, conspiring with large entities before selling BTC through exchanges in order. Could be the largest PUMP and DUMP ever.
But in the end its still a theory, we have no way of verifying that the amounts sold in red font are from mt. gox wallets.

If you read my post 2 above yours you'll see we have a very good way of verifying that those sales were NOT Mt. Gox coins. That would give a much larger average price than the 10k they actually got.

[cryptokwuk]

This was Karpeles plan all along, he knew he would go to jail shortly, he knew the settlement could only legally be done in fiat.

Anybody that thinks this is just lucky coincidence for him hasn't been around long enough and has never talked personally with this narcissistic criminal.

[btcone111]

Excellent thread - love the info - not all confirmed but i guess it's pointing in the right direction.

[Tzupy]

... My guess is that would have happened in a number of OTC deals staggered over that time period...

No, the Trustee did no OTC deal, he sold on an (yet unknown) exchange. His own answer:

We sold them at the market price through the cryptocurrency exchange service provider from December 2017 through February 2018.
The difference between the sales figures for BTC and BCH was just the timing of suspending sales; therefore, we did not have any particular intention.

[TheQuin]

... My guess is that would have happened in a number of OTC deals staggered over that time period...

No, the Trustee did no OTC deal, he sold on an (yet unknown) exchange. His own answer:

We sold them at the market price through the cryptocurrency exchange service provider from December 2017 through February 2018.
The difference between the sales figures for BTC and BCH was just the timing of suspending sales; therefore, we did not have any particular intention.

Until we know the exchange those things are not mutually exclusive. Bitfinex, for example, offers OTC services. For large transactions like this that would be a sensible way to proceed.

BTW. Can you give a link to the source of that quote?

[Tzupy]

... My guess is that would have happened in a number of OTC deals staggered over that time period...

No, the Trustee did no OTC deal, he sold on an (yet unknown) exchange. His own answer:

We sold them at the market price through the cryptocurrency exchange service provider from December 2017 through February 2018.
The difference between the sales figures for BTC and BCH was just the timing of suspending sales; therefore, we did not have any particular intention.

Until we know the exchange those things are not mutually exclusive. Bitfinex, for example, offers OTC services. For large transactions like this that would be a sensible way to proceed.

BTW. Can you give a link to the source of that quote?

Report of the creditors meeting on March 7th 2018, Q&A Session, answer 4
https://mtgox-creditors.com/

[samson]

Doesn't this mean that the 'correction' was not real and is yet to come, maybe we're only seeing the 'real correction' now.....

The 'whales in charge' of the markets must have been caught off guard by this.

MtGox only sold 38k out of 202k Bitcoin, a lot more were dumped than that. I guess the sells triggered stop losses all the way down to $6k.

[TheQuin]

Report of the creditors meeting on March 7th 2018, Q&A Session, answer 4
https://mtgox-creditors.com/

There wasn't any more useful information in there but thanks for the link.

I still can't see how they could have caused the decline in price though from looking at the prices in that time period and the average price they attained. If they had been selling the highs to trigger this thing then they should have got much more than 10K average.

[Tzupy]

Report of the creditors meeting on March 7th 2018, Q&A Session, answer 4
https://mtgox-creditors.com/

There wasn't any more useful information in there but thanks for the link.

I still can't see how they could have caused the decline in price though from looking at the prices in that time period and the average price they attained. If they had been selling the highs to trigger this thing then they should have got much more than 10K average.

The Trustee didn't sell the highs, the worst part being the sale of up to 18,000 BTC on the 5th February. But he depressed the market further.
If this was incompetence or malice (like insider trading), it's hard to tell, we have to wait for precise data and compare dumps on various exchanges.
To trigger a bearish channel you have to sell a lot at an inflection point, where the market is undecided about the direction.

[TheQuin]

The Trustee didn't sell the highs, the worst part being the sale of up to 18,000 BTC on the 5th February. But he depressed the market further.
If this was incompetence or malice (like insider trading), it's hard to tell, we have to wait for precise data and compare dumps on various exchanges.
To trigger a bearish channel you have to sell a lot at an inflection point, where the market is undecided about the direction.

Again where is this data coming from?

Also, a quick look at the chart shows that the market went up higher on 19th and 20th than it was on the 18th. The next down move didn't start until the 21st.

[alyssa85]

I still can't see how they could have caused the decline in price though from looking at the prices in that time period and the average price they attained. If they had been selling the highs to trigger this thing then they should have got much more than 10K average.

Actually $10k is a pretty decent average. Remember that bitcoin has only really been above $10k for one month, in December 2017. So the trustee did well to wait as long as he did (since 2014) and then cash out.

[TheQuin]

I still can't see how they could have caused the decline in price though from looking at the prices in that time period and the average price they attained. If they had been selling the highs to trigger this thing then they should have got much more than 10K average.

Actually $10k is a pretty decent average. Remember that bitcoin has only really been above $10k for one month, in December 2017. So the trustee did well to wait as long as he did (since 2014) and then cash out.

Oh yeah, I wasn't saying from that standpoint. I'm just pointing out if they caused the sell-off they would have to have sold the highs and probably got 15-18k range. Getting an average 10k in the time period they did tells me that's all a load of FUD.

[gabmen]

I still can't see how they could have caused the decline in price though from looking at the prices in that time period and the average price they attained. If they had been selling the highs to trigger this thing then they should have got much more than 10K average.

Actually $10k is a pretty decent average. Remember that bitcoin has only really been above $10k for one month, in December 2017. So the trustee did well to wait as long as he did (since 2014) and then cash out.

Well they haven't sold it until recently, hence the significant drop and what's interesting is that this probably won't be the last dump that's going to happen so probably a stagnant 10k value is already a positive scenario. Bears are basically overpowering the bulls right now

[exstasie]

If the liabilities to creditors can be repaid now (in fiat), why is the trustee saying he plans to liquidate more coins? Is there some legal reason that assets need to be liquidated to cash before the case enters civil rehabilitation (or the proceeds get transferred to Karpeles' companies)?

This was Karpeles plan all along, he knew he would go to jail shortly, he knew the settlement could only legally be done in fiat.

Anybody that thinks this is just lucky coincidence for him hasn't been around long enough and has never talked personally with this narcissistic criminal.

For what it's worth, he publicly stated he advised the trustee against selling on the spot market. And that makes sense because you're right. The higher BTC goes, the better his situation. He's long known that the liabilities in bankruptcy would be calculated in fiat (same as any other country), hence his celebratory posts on Reddit when the 2017 bubble took off.