Worst losing streak at bitcoin dice with 1.4 or 1.5 payout and possible settings

[luca1073]

Hi Guys i know every roll is independent and about gamblers fallacy but the odds are certainly in our favour a bit more when we have 60-63 % chance . so i ask: what, on your opinion (out of experience or else) would be the likely Worst losing streak at bitcoin dice with 1.4 or 1.5 payout?

i heard 1.4 payout would need a 300 % increase on loss to be "profitable" and that :
   a       1.5 payout would only need a 210 % increase on loss
im testing it with rainbot money and it seems interesting.

Let me know your opinion if you can

[HCP]

Hi Guys i know every roll is independent and about gamblers fallacy but the odds are certainly in our favour a bit more when we have 60-63 % chance .

You may know about the gamblers fallacy, but apparently you choose to ignore it!!?! The odds are NEVER in your favour unless you have a +EV... as far as I'm aware... EVERY dice game available is -EV.

You can "massage" the numbers all you want... The house edge will beat you in the end.

As for loss streaks, this page has a good explanation on calculating expected losing streaks:

The longest expected losing streak (or winning streak) can be calculated using the following formula:


n = number of trials (i.e. total number of bets)
ln = natural logarithm
P = probability
| .. | = absolute value or ‘modulus’

NOTE: For winning streak calculations use the positive value (i.e. the probability of winning). For losing streak calculations use the negative probability value. For example, if the probability to win the bet is 33% then the probability that the bet loses (negative probability) is 67%.

The formula can be typed into Google to get the answer... for instance, over 1,000,000 rolls... a 60% win chance (40% loss chance) would use the formula: abs(ln(1000000)/ln(0.4)) = ~15.08

So your max expected loss streak would be ~15 over 1,000,000 rolls (personally, I wouldn't be surprised if you hit 20 )... Anyway if your increase is 3x... you'd better have one hell of a bankroll!

Code:

Roll    Wager           Total Loss
1	0.00000001	0.00000001
2	0.00000003	0.00000004
3	0.00000009	0.00000013
4	0.00000027	0.00000040
5	0.00000081	0.00000121
6	0.00000243	0.00000364
7	0.00000729	0.00001093
8	0.00002187	0.00003280
9	0.00006561	0.00009841
10	0.00019683	0.00029524
11	0.00059049	0.00088573
12	0.00177147	0.00265720
13	0.00531441	0.00797161
14	0.01594323	0.02391484
15	0.04782969	0.07174453

Also... the Gambling subforum and all the other degen's are over there --> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=56.0 Enjoy!

[luca1073]

Thanks a lot for your answer. it is very helpful!