Everyone is saying BTC ganna go up, but

[fattypig]

Most of the people in the forum including me is quite optimistic about Bitcoin.

But after so many weeks why didn't it go up but difficulty is shooting up?

[tutkarz]

Most of the people in the forum including me is quite optimistic about Bitcoin.

But after so many weeks why didn't it go up but difficulty is shooting up?

looks like some people got used to constant growth in the first half of the year. But to me stable price is good for bitcoin and can bring more people who would like to invest in it or create a business. Which in the long term will make price higher too.

[Birdy]

Don't forget there is a constant supply of new coins, especially with the network power skyrocketing.
So at the moment every day 4-5k new coins are flooding in, if the price stays the same the market cap is still rising.
The big supply of new coins will vanish soon enough ^^
First drop once the difficulty doesn't increase like crazy anymore, second one when the reward halves again (about 2.5-3 years from now)

[theonewhowaskazu]

Don't forget there is a constant supply of new coins, especially with the network power skyrocketing.
So at the moment every day 4-5k new coins are flooding in, if the price stays the same the market cap is still rising.
The big supply of new coins will vanish soon enough ^^
First drop once the difficulty doesn't increase like crazy anymore, second one when the reward halves again (about 2.5-3 years from now)

Don't forget that the crazy difficulty increases actually brings about the halving sooner. Super-fast difficulty increase has an effect similar to shortselling. In the short-term it may increase the supply, but it can cause an even greater supply squeeze in the future.

[Birdy]

Don't forget there is a constant supply of new coins, especially with the network power skyrocketing.
So at the moment every day 4-5k new coins are flooding in, if the price stays the same the market cap is still rising.
The big supply of new coins will vanish soon enough ^^
First drop once the difficulty doesn't increase like crazy anymore, second one when the reward halves again (about 2.5-3 years from now)

Don't forget that the crazy difficulty increases actually brings about the halving sooner. Super-fast difficulty increase has an effect similar to shortselling. In the short-term it may increase the supply, but it can cause an even greater supply squeeze in the future.

Exactly what I'm saying :3
That's why I wrote 2.5-3 years ^^

[viboracecata]

because most of us are speculators, but not investors, so the price go up and down frequently, right?

[pand70]

When i see the bitcoin price to be so stable i cant help but worry that something fishy is going on...

[notme]

When i see the bitcoin price to be so stable i cant help but worry that something fishy is going on...

Nothing fishy.  Big players are getting a feel for the market before they decide which way it will go.

[fattypig]

Don't forget there is a constant supply of new coins, especially with the network power skyrocketing.
So at the moment every day 4-5k new coins are flooding in, if the price stays the same the market cap is still rising.
The big supply of new coins will vanish soon enough ^^
First drop once the difficulty doesn't increase like crazy anymore, second one when the reward halves again (about 2.5-3 years from now)

Don't forget that the crazy difficulty increases actually brings about the halving sooner. Super-fast difficulty increase has an effect similar to shortselling. In the short-term it may increase the supply, but it can cause an even greater supply squeeze in the future.

Exactly what I'm saying :3
That's why I wrote 2.5-3 years ^^

Forget about the halving, looks like I have to keep 3 years to really see a big increment. hm...

[BitCoiner2012]

Don't forget there is a constant supply of new coins, especially with the network power skyrocketing.
So at the moment every day 4-5k new coins are flooding in, if the price stays the same the market cap is still rising.
The big supply of new coins will vanish soon enough ^^
First drop once the difficulty doesn't increase like crazy anymore, second one when the reward halves again (about 2.5-3 years from now)

Don't forget that the crazy difficulty increases actually brings about the halving sooner. Super-fast difficulty increase has an effect similar to shortselling. In the short-term it may increase the supply, but it can cause an even greater supply squeeze in the future.

Exactly what I'm saying :3
That's why I wrote 2.5-3 years ^^

Forget about the halving, looks like I have to keep 3 years to really see a big increment. hm...

I think you'll see a lot of momentum long before the next halving..

[Nagle]

Don't forget there is a constant supply of new coins, especially with the network power skyrocketing.
So at the moment every day 4-5k new coins are flooding in, if the price stays the same the market cap is still rising.
The big supply of new coins will vanish soon enough ^^
First drop once the difficulty doesn't increase like crazy anymore, second one when the reward halves again (about 2.5-3 years from now)

Don't forget that the crazy difficulty increases actually brings about the halving sooner.

It doesn't work that way. The number of new Bitcoins generated each day is roughly constant at 3600 until the reward drops by 50% in December 2016, 2020, 2024, etc.

All Bitcoin miners are thus in competition for a fixed resource.

[Birdy]

Don't forget there is a constant supply of new coins, especially with the network power skyrocketing.
So at the moment every day 4-5k new coins are flooding in, if the price stays the same the market cap is still rising.
The big supply of new coins will vanish soon enough ^^
First drop once the difficulty doesn't increase like crazy anymore, second one when the reward halves again (about 2.5-3 years from now)

Don't forget that the crazy difficulty increases actually brings about the halving sooner.

It doesn't work that way. The number of new Bitcoins generated each day is roughly constant at 3600 until the reward drops by 50% in December 2016, 2020, 2024, etc.

All Bitcoin miners are thus in competition for a fixed resource.

False, it does work that way. Atm nearly 5k coins are generated daily, because blocks are found way faster than they are supposed to be found.
Difficulty only adjusts after a certain amounts of blocks.
The reward halving will be earlier than december 2016, you will see.

[oneidentity]

Don't forget there is a constant supply of new coins, especially with the network power skyrocketing.
So at the moment every day 4-5k new coins are flooding in, if the price stays the same the market cap is still rising.
The big supply of new coins will vanish soon enough ^^
First drop once the difficulty doesn't increase like crazy anymore, second one when the reward halves again (about 2.5-3 years from now)

Don't forget that the crazy difficulty increases actually brings about the halving sooner.

It doesn't work that way. The number of new Bitcoins generated each day is roughly constant at 3600 until the reward drops by 50% in December 2016, 2020, 2024, etc.

All Bitcoin miners are thus in competition for a fixed resource.

False, it does work that way. Atm nearly 5k coins are generated daily, because blocks are found way faster than they are supposed to be found.
Difficulty only adjusts after a certain amounts of blocks.
The reward halving will be earlier than december 2016, you will see.

Interesting..
Sorry for being NOOB, but why will BTC be half in 3 years time?

[Birdy]

Interesting..
Sorry for being NOOB, but why will BTC be half in 3 years time?

At the moment there is a additional reward for mining (using computing power to confirm transactions) for two reasons:
- to have a way to bring Bitcoins in circulation
- to increase the motivation to do mining (later on it will be financed by the transaction fees)

As the currency is supposed to have a limited supply this cannot go on forever.

[Kluge]

Most of the people in the forum including me is quite optimistic about Bitcoin.

But after so many weeks why didn't it go up but difficulty is shooting up?

The way it used to work, difficulty (rather, hashrate) was generally determined by the price of coins. This is no longer true, because all of the powerful ASICs can only be obtained through preorders (or buying second-hand), so now you get to speculate a lot more. In the GPU days, when price was down and difficulty up, you just shut the GPUs down until the situation improved. Now, when that situation occurs, it's still profitable to run ASICs - just not as much, and it makes it that much more likely you won't see a RoI. For now, ASIC costs are almost entirely upfront (hardware), instead of recurring electricity costs. ASIC manufacturers are still charging markups in the (tens of?) thousands of percent, so they can just mark down their hardware a bit and the preorder volume will stay strong. Basically - no matter what happens, all those huge unbelievable numbers you see for 2014 difficulty projections are going to come true, because BTC price isn't a factor when ASIC manufacturers can just sell cheaper.

[theonewhowaskazu]

Most of the people in the forum including me is quite optimistic about Bitcoin.

But after so many weeks why didn't it go up but difficulty is shooting up?

The way it used to work, difficulty (rather, hashrate) was generally determined by the price of coins. This is no longer true, because all of the powerful ASICs can only be obtained through preorders (or buying second-hand), so now you get to speculate a lot more. In the GPU days, when price was down and difficulty up, you just shut the GPUs down until the situation improved. Now, when that situation occurs, it's still profitable to run ASICs - just not as much, and it makes it that much more likely you won't see a RoI. For now, ASIC costs are almost entirely upfront (hardware), instead of recurring electricity costs. ASIC manufacturers are still charging markups in the (tens of?) thousands of percent, so they can just mark down their hardware a bit and the preorder volume will stay strong. Basically - no matter what happens, all those huge unbelievable numbers you see for 2014 difficulty projections are going to come true, because BTC price isn't a factor when ASIC manufacturers can just sell cheaper.

To be fair, the markup is meant to makeup up for the insane development costs associated with producing chips like that. I agree that they're likely to lower their prices, though, since we're already down to like 28nm. There's not much smaller we can go, so they won't have to pay any more development costs.

[RodeoX]

Compare this years growth in bitcoin price to the holdings in your 401K. Bitcoin is exploding far beyond the scale of other investments.

[johnyj]

It is currently rising at a speed of almost 1% per day, that is already insane

[Adrian-x]

But after so many weeks why didn't it go up but difficulty is shooting up?

Difficulty shooting up is the elastic in the catapult stretching.

it's going to snap, or to d' moon

[Zaih]

People still think difficulty & mining stuff actually has any substantial affect on the price..

[theonewhowaskazu]

People still think difficulty & mining stuff actually has any substantial affect on the price..

It has a huge effect on the price. saying mining doesn't affect the price is like saying that shorting doesn't affect a stock's price.

[Kluge]

People still think difficulty & mining stuff actually has any substantial affect on the price..

It has a huge effect on the price. saying mining doesn't affect the price is like saying that shorting doesn't affect a stock's price.

I guess that depends on what you mean. Block rewards have significant impact on price. There are ~11.8M BTC in existence, and ~4k being pumped out each day (higher than 3.6K "target" because of rapidly increasing hashpower on network, which 2-week difficulty adjustment window is too slow to accurately adjust for). That's ~.000339% daily inflation, and I'd guess ~75% of that quickly turns back into cash to purchase more miners or to "cash out" - but that's an out-of-ass guess, no clue what the real numbers are there. Assuming 75% "cash-out rate," and daily exchange volume of right around 40KBTC, they make up ~7.5% of the daily transaction volume.

While that's significant, that simply isn't enough influence (rather, there isn't enough new coin generation) to really determine the price (though it creates downward pressure), so price instead determines how much hashpower is on the network (though this correlation is currently broken due to disruptive ASIC tech - but once upfront ASIC prices are negligible compared to electricity costs again, this correlation will come back). Miners only had a "huge" impact on price - where they alone could set the price - back in the first year or so of Bitcoin, when the number of coins produced per day was really substantial, and Gox would've been majorly impacted by a dump of the day's 7.2K coins.

Mining (rather, block rewards) do still give Bitcoin a high rate of inflation (annually ~2x that of the USD, currently - depending on which numbers you trust), but that impact is steadily decreasing, and will become very small at the next halving (when annual inflation will likely be less than the USD). The halving after that, BTC inflation will be negligible.

[majamalu]

What matters is how many dollars are chasing the bitcoins that are available for sale, not how many bitcoins are generated per day.

[alp]

Most of the people in the forum including me is quite optimistic about Bitcoin.

But after so many weeks why didn't it go up but difficulty is shooting up?

Everyone saying it is going to rain outside today, but why is it getting colder?

(hint: those things aren't related).

[desired_username]

People still think difficulty & mining stuff actually has any substantial affect on the price..

It has a huge effect on the price. saying mining doesn't affect the price is like saying that shorting doesn't affect a stock's price.

Considering the volume on exchanges the newly minted coins cannot really have any effect at all.

[faiza1990]

suddenly going very fast high may be something fishy going to be happening soon big players doing something for this big up

[desired_username]

suddenly going very fast high may be something fishy going to be happening soon big players doing something for this big up

Big up? you must be very new to this

[cowandtea]

It is going to go up, if everyone believe in it then it will.