Is There Any Cyclicality in BTC Prices

[OROBTC]

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I have long wondered if there are any exploitable patterns in BTC price, like lower price (for example) late on a Saturday night in the USA.

I certainly understand that any obvious patterns will be picked up by trading bots as well as alert human traders, but perhaps there might be structural reasons for prices, on the average, to be a little lower or a little higher (eg, fewer people worldwide active at certain times, etc.).

My *guess* is that there are NO such patterns.  If there are such patterns, my next guess is that they would be small, probably hard to exploit...

The *reason* I started this thread would be to gain any insights as to when might be a relatively good time to buy BTC.

Thoughts?

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[magneto]

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I have long wondered if there are any exploitable patterns in BTC price, like lower price (for example) late on a Saturday night in the USA.

I certainly understand that any obvious patterns will be picked up by trading bots as well as alert human traders, but perhaps there might be structural reasons for prices, on the average, to be a little lower or a little higher (eg, fewer people worldwide active at certain times, etc.).

My *guess* is that there are NO such patterns.  If there are such patterns, my next guess is that they would be small, probably hard to exploit...

The *reason* I started this thread would be to gain any insights as to when might be a relatively good time to buy BTC.

Thoughts?

Depends on how long of a cycle you are talking about.

If you're talking about years then 0-1 year after halving is where most gains in BTC price are made. And then year 2-3 after the block reward halving is usually when the market is overall quite bearish, just like this year and probably the next year as well.

However if you are talking about a shorter amount of time, like days, then I'm not sure.

There are people out there claiming that BTC prices generally crash over the weekend and recover throughout the week. There is some evidence for this but it doesn't mean it'll continue forever since we don't know what the cause for this is. You could try to trade this but it's a gamble if you invest for the short run.

[davis196]

The only btc price pattern i know about is the "outumn-winter" price pattern.The bitcoin price might rise and fall during the year,but around November-December it increases rapidly.I still don`t know why this happens,but   
it happens every year.Let`s hope that it will happen again this year.I plan to buy more bitcoins ,when the price goes under 9K USD and HODL for a few months.

[Pursuer]

good question and I have also been thinking about this myself for a while.
my conclusion is that there are patterns out there but they are not reliable and also they may not be repeated. for example the first months of every year are known to be slower and we see drops in those months but at the same time it doesn't mean every year it has to be repeated.
same with short term and weekends. for a long time people have been saying price drops during weekends but that is not always t rue. so it is not reliable.

[slaman29]

...

I have long wondered if there are any exploitable patterns in BTC price, like lower price (for example) late on a Saturday night in the USA.

I certainly understand that any obvious patterns will be picked up by trading bots as well as alert human traders, but perhaps there might be structural reasons for prices, on the average, to be a little lower or a little higher (eg, fewer people worldwide active at certain times, etc.).

My *guess* is that there are NO such patterns.  If there are such patterns, my next guess is that they would be small, probably hard to exploit...

The *reason* I started this thread would be to gain any insights as to when might be a relatively good time to buy BTC.

Thoughts?

The weekend pattern has been brought up before, since it has been a pattern established since the December failures to hold on to highs. But if all the bots out there were good at picking this up, then they will also be responsible for this pattern outplaying itself. In trading, patterns are apparent to those looking for them, and in some cases, self fulfilling (people say now it drops on weekend before recovering Monday, so they don't buy until Friday if prices are low, and as they buy, of course demand fuels the increase).

[tokeweed]

If what ORO means is if there are small edges that some traders have over others, I'm pretty sure there is.  There's a good reason why there are some who make more over others trading these markets...  But asking exactly what they are is kinda stupid imo.  Why would anyone give up their edge on you?

Simply put, there are some who win consistently a lot, then there's the rest of us who suck.

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

I've observed the following pattern, everytime there is a dump, the price recovers somewhat, only to get dumped back again. Recently we went to 11.4-5k right? Then we dropped hard to 8.4, we recovered above 10, got dumped again, now it seems to happen again, we recovered to 9.3 and as of typing this, we are at exactly 9000 with prospect for it to drop lower, again.

[Nick Abimanyu]

After I see the arrangement of a large transaction which happens on MTGox. The decline that occurs this time the contrast is closely related to the pattern of exploitation, which has been planned and arranged so that the conditions resemble the cycle. While the actual cycles haven't worked as in previous years, Because blocked the engineering cycle of whales.

[pereira4]

I've observed the following pattern, everytime there is a dump, the price recovers somewhat, only to get dumped back again. Recently we went to 11.4-5k right? Then we dropped hard to 8.4, we recovered above 10, got dumped again, now it seems to happen again, we recovered to 9.3 and as of typing this, we are at exactly 9000 with prospect for it to drop lower, again.

We may be in another period similar to 2013-2015 where "nothing" happened, which means, an excellent opportunity to stack up on cheap bitcoins for a long time. Im sure that anyone that has been here for a long time will see it as good news. We were getting to carried away too fast with too many idiots getting on board, specially the ones that buy bitcoin to buy shitcoins. All of these guys need to be shaken out of the market and these coins re-distributed again into the hands of the smart, long term holders, until the next bull run which I expect will be to around $100k in the next 2 to 3 years, perhaps triggered by a big financial crisis which is already looming on the horizon.

In any case, buy the dip, ideally buy monthly if you can afford it.

[jimbo2000]

...

I have long wondered if there are any exploitable patterns in BTC price, like lower price (for example) late on a Saturday night in the USA.

I certainly understand that any obvious patterns will be picked up by trading bots as well as alert human traders, but perhaps there might be structural reasons for prices, on the average, to be a little lower or a little higher (eg, fewer people worldwide active at certain times, etc.).

My *guess* is that there are NO such patterns.  If there are such patterns, my next guess is that they would be small, probably hard to exploit...

The *reason* I started this thread would be to gain any insights as to when might be a relatively good time to buy BTC.

Thoughts?

On a weekly basis the trends aren't really reversed but sometimes you can predict how things will move. For example if the price has been sliding over the weekend it often slides most late on a sunday because people can't check so often on a weekday and they sell now instead of potentially the price following further in the week before they can next check, the same thing the other way around. It's not a huge thing.

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

Pretty much happened as I thought it would.

[cindygirl]

Bitcoin like almost anything follows a clear cyclical path going through boom and bust. The difficulty is not in knowing that the price will rise or fall but knowing from which point it will rise or fall. This is where TA can come in useful as it can help you to identify support and resistance levels.

[gentlemand]

As soon as enough people identify and get comfortable with a pattern then someone else'll pop along and blow it apart for their own gain.

The 'weekend dip' has often been taken as an absolute dead cert, but for periods of time there've been weekend pumps for weeks on end too.

I think we're now in a spin cycle where we'll bounce between 6-11 grand over and over until there's some decisive action. That's still a lot of movement to milk without the risk of being flattened by giant moves. We may be in for a wait for one of them again.

[iram1011]

Crypto market is highly amateur and irregular. Most of the times, coins tend to diverge from the pattern that TA presents. There isn't any cyclicity in Bitcoin price. But overall, the basic market sentiments do repeat like the first quarter usually is a bear one, second a bit bullish, third again a bear one and fourth tends to be highly bullish near the end. But there isn't any clear price cyclicity. Also, the MMs and exchanges are playing with market who have records of all the buy and sell orders and thus can easily manipulate the market sentiments.

[jimbo2000]

As soon as enough people identify and get comfortable with a pattern then someone else'll pop along and blow it apart for their own gain.

The 'weekend dip' has often been taken as an absolute dead cert, but for periods of time there've been weekend pumps for weeks on end too.

I think we're now in a spin cycle where we'll bounce between 6-11 grand over and over until there's some decisive action. That's still a lot of movement to milk without the risk of being flattened by giant moves. We may be in for a wait for one of them again.

That in itself is why we have cyclical nature, not only are there obvious patterns which have a cyclical nature (weekly trends for example) there's also a cyclical nature in how these trends move from one to another. Weekends will be pumps for a period until enough people notice it and try and do the opposite to profit and then they will gradually reverse and so on. At the same time there's also a self fulfilling nature with them, if everyone is expecting a pump they'll often cause it themselves by buying in in expectation.

[Crytptohack]

I've researched a little regarding a correlation between BTC and other assets but could not find anything specific. In general, It may be trading opposite of the USD index...

Finding buying opportunities depends on the hodL'ing time frame. Watch the stochastics indicator and when it is under the 20 level on a daily chart which is the 'oversold' area. Once both lines (K and D) are over 20, the trend tends to continue to the upside and often to the overbought area which is over 80.

I speculate that the bottom for 2018 was on Feb 6th.

[Duzter]

Working upon a decentralized platform let the cryptocurrency to be highly unpredictable. In my personal thinking it might be following a cyclic growth pattern. Because, you could find almost similar pattern upon the growth chart of bitcoin which assures of the growth.

[Harlot]

You are right it is hard to put on an exact movement for Bitcoin in any date. Simply saying that March 2017 is a bullish month therefore March 2018 should be a bullish month for 2018 which we shouldn't believe as this is not even part of technical analysis. Simply putting an increase in maket participation every month will have a great effect on its price movement which will not follow a simple cycle to what others are claiming.

[beskid]

The only btc price pattern i know about is the "outumn-winter" price pattern.The bitcoin price might rise and fall during the year,but around November-December it increases rapidly.I still don`t know why this happens,but   
it happens every year.Let`s hope that it will happen again this year.I plan to buy more bitcoins ,when the price goes under 9K USD and HODL for a few months.

I agree with you, but you forgot to add another repetitive trend bitcoin.  Every year, approximately from mid-December to the end of March, bitcoin falls in price, and from about the middle of April begins its growth. Look at the miners who are engaged in bitcoin mining from the very beginning. When around all investors panic, they behave quite calmly as they are accustomed to  to this trend.

[Dagser]

There is some pattern regarding Chinese New Year
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@budz82/coincidence-multi-year-bitcoin-crash-pattern-like-clockwork-btc-has-crashed-25-35-for-4-years-in-a-row-23-24-days-before-chinese

But if most of the people recognize it, it will be expired and something new will happen.