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Author Topic: Removing old coin uncertainty  (Read 5022 times)
Nancarrow
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October 14, 2013, 02:08:28 PM
 #21

No need to know how many coins have been lost.. What's the point ?  Why you think it's important to know about how many coins are lost/remaining ?

Quote from: The Original Post
Every market thrives on information.  I would argue that large uncertainty about the amount of lost coins is hurting bitcoin adoption, especially its use as a store of value.  I think this proposal would help bitcoin adoption by providing a count of the number of controllable coins, and it would do so in a manner that would not unfairly penalize anyone.

If I've said anything amusing and/or informative and you're feeling generous:
1GNJq39NYtf7cn2QFZZuP5vmC1mTs63rEW
go1111111
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October 14, 2013, 07:30:35 PM
 #22

No need to know how many coins have been lost.. What's the point ?  Why you think it's important to know about how many coins are lost/remaining ?

Quote from: The Original Post
Every market thrives on information.  I would argue that large uncertainty about the amount of lost coins is hurting bitcoin adoption, especially its use as a store of value.  I think this proposal would help bitcoin adoption by providing a count of the number of controllable coins, and it would do so in a manner that would not unfairly penalize anyone.

People who understand Bitcoin well enough to be uncertain about the lost coin situation aren't the type of people who are on the fence about adoption. Go ask 1000 people who haven't started using Bitcoin yet, and I bet no one will tell you that their sticking point is the lost coin issue. Either they won't know anything about Bitcoin, or they'll say "it's not backed by anything", "isn't that a pyramid scheme?", etc.

Restatement of the problem: Assume in the future lots of people hold a lot of their wealth in Bitcoin. Some previously inactive huge store of bitcoin comes onto the market, and the price of BTC falls 5%, hence the value of everyone's bitcoin holdings fall by 5%.

A couple reasons why this isn't a huge problem:

-Once bitcoin is mature, people will no longer need to hold large amounts of it for speculation purposes, the same way that wealthy people today don't generally hold huge amounts of cash. Anyone who has invested their wealth in stocks would be relatively protected. Bond contracts can be written so that payouts are inflation adjusted.

-If people are really concerned about this, companies will offer 'inflation insurance', removing your uncertainty about your own bitcoins value if new bitcoins come into the market. The price of this inflation insurance will reveal what the market thinks about this risk.

-As long as bitcoin is in its growth mode (i.e. until it takes over as the default world currency), any reduction in BTC value caused by coins that were assumed to be lost coming into the market will likely be negligible compared to forces stemming from speculation about Bitcoin's eventual level of success.
alp
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October 14, 2013, 09:27:50 PM
 #23

Problem:  Coins are out of circulation.
Solution:  Remove those coins from circulation, along with anyone unfortunate enough not to move a wallet around.

Excellent proposal.

I am looking for a good signature. Here could be your advertisement
zachcope
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October 14, 2013, 09:44:51 PM
 #24

I am usually quite polite but...

Fuck off with your stealing from the early adopters and miners.  Angry

Seriously the whole point of bitcoin is that it is a neutral currency.

It doesn't care if it is sent from USA to Somalia; it doesn't care about bankrupt banks and governments wanting a bail out at the expense of pensioners; and it sure as he'll doesn't give a flying fuck about your opinions on the early adopters' coins.

If you want a currency that changes the rules frequently to suit those in power, or with the majority of power, there are a few hundred fiat currencies you can join.


/rant

OP - I am going to apologise in advance but feel it is would be useful for you to really consider the true advantages of bitcoin, then decide if you can support it. Many of the perceived disadvantages and inflexibilities are in fact it's greatest strengths.
 Cool

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October 14, 2013, 10:10:01 PM
 #25

But currently there is no mechanism for knowing if coins have truly been lost or not unless they have been sent to the genesis block.

Coins sent to the genesis block are not lost. Only the 50BTC block reward from the first coinbase transaction cannot be spent.

Syke
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October 15, 2013, 03:20:04 AM
 #26

I think it could be helpful to remove some of the uncertainty around old coins, to see if they are truly lost or not.


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go1111111
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October 15, 2013, 05:21:20 AM
 #27

-Once bitcoin is mature, people will no longer need to hold large amounts of it for speculation purposes, the same way that wealthy people today don't generally hold huge amounts of cash.

I realized I was wrong about this. If Bitcoin was the default world currency, holding large quantities of bitcoin would be similar to holding a fixed percentage of global wealth. It would basically be the simplest way to hold a "world wealth index fund." It's fundamentally different from holding cash in that respect, and therefore much more attractive than holding cash.
theonewhowaskazu
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October 15, 2013, 05:25:05 AM
 #28

What does this have to do with anything?

If BTC goes up in value and old coins are removed from circulation then BTC goes up more. Problem? Not really.

Cubic Earth (OP)
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October 15, 2013, 08:39:52 AM
 #29

Fuck off with your stealing from the early adopters and miners.  Angry

Seriously the whole point of bitcoin is that it is a neutral currency.

It doesn't care if it is sent from USA to Somalia; it doesn't care about bankrupt banks and governments wanting a bail out at the expense of pensioners; and it sure as he'll doesn't give a flying fuck about your opinions on the early adopters' coins.

If you want a currency that changes the rules frequently to suit those in power, or with the majority of power, there are a few hundred fiat currencies you can join.

Bitcoin's rule have changed and will change again.  The only question is, what kind of client do YOU run?  Yep, it doesn't even take a majority, it just takes two computers to fork.  Even considering mainstream bitcoin and the supermajority of users, there have been and will be hard forks.

I don't know why you think this would be a change to 'suit those in power'.  Do you think I am in power?  But a rule change to suit the majority or super majority or bitcoin users?  Of course!  This is open software.

And, where did you see that I was interested in targeting early adopters?  The dates I gave were hypothetical.  My only target is coins that have been lost forever.  How can you steal something that belongs to no one?

What does this have to do with anything?

If BTC goes up in value and old coins are removed from circulation then BTC goes up more. Problem? Not really.

Several of you have asked this, or suggested that it is not my business. My answer is that the size of the money supply is everyones business.  There have been many threads on these forums that have touted bitcoins ability to survive deflation by pointing out that even just one coin would be sufficient to run the world economy thanks to the magic of moving the decimal place to the right.  Lets say in the future this is the case, that between the years 2140 and 2150, only one bitcoin in total is in active circulation.  It seems that the other 20,999,999 BTC have been lost.  Then all of a sudden, Satoshi's addresses become active, showing that the usable monetary base is 1,000,000x larger than people thought.

Well yes and no. I don't agree with the OP's proposal but leaving your coins forever and ever is also not an option. At some point in time EC cryptography is going to be broken and then people will have to migrate their coins over to some thing else or loose them entirely.

I think that people will always need to stay on the ball and keep up with the world if they want to preserve there wealth.  This includes knowing about laws, finance, wars, culture, technology, etc.  What if the cryptography gets broken?  Of course we can agree to add new encryption to bitcoin so that it remains usable, but what about the previously lost coins?  Will they just be open to plunder and reintroduced into the supply?  Or will the community make a decision to block all of the coins that have not migrated to the new crypto by a certain date?

I'm not entirely sure, but I do feel that there would be some fear of someone hitting pot of 10k BTC in future.

Just think about how much that would mess up things in 100 years time or so...

I don't know if the situation is even fixable with bitcoin... Likely unless there is periodic resets it will always exist...

Either way, things don't look good from this perspective for bitcoin in very long run.

If this is a bigger issue in 50 years, we could still do it then.
Atm it would most likely do more harm than good.

I am very sympathetic to idea that this may do more harm than good at the moment.  And yes, it could still be done at any point in the future.  Bitcoin can die either because it is not managed at all, or because it is managed poorly.  Some people think Bitcoin should never be managed and just left alone.  I can certainly see the appeal in this.  Good for those folks that they can keep running bitcoind 8.5 forever and it will never change.

The rest of the community will adopt sensible innovations and management as they see fit.  Bitcoin is powerful not because it will never change, but because the ability to make changes rest in the hands of its users.
Sukrim
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October 15, 2013, 09:39:40 AM
 #30

Well, copyright laws for example deal with the idea that there is wealth in something immaterial that needs to be saved + preserved and can be inherited.

If you want a time frame after which it would be OK to either redistribute or invalidate coins, I'd recommend looking at the time frames a book is still protected under copyright, even if the author used a pseudonym or is otherwise unknown. This is not in the range of months or years, rather in decades!

Something like reclaiming coins after 100 years (or 25 block reward changes...) after their last move might be an option - you would not live to see it in action though. Anything below that is VERY short sighted and again there are alternative coins out there that do this and that you can use right now instead of Bitcoin.

https://www.coinlend.org <-- automated lending at various exchanges.
https://www.bitfinex.com <-- Trade BTC for other currencies and vice versa.
Syke
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October 15, 2013, 05:41:37 PM
 #31


Several of you have asked this, or suggested that it is not my business. My answer is that the size of the money supply is everyones business. 

Do you own my bitcoins or do I? What I do with my bitcoins is none of your business. If I want to have them sit untouched in a cold wallet for 40 years until my grandkids are old enough to manage them theirselves, then that's what I'll do and I'll fight you trying to steal them from me till the day I die.

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October 15, 2013, 05:49:37 PM
 #32

No. Didn't your mom tell you stealing is wrong?

What part of don't violate the social contract is hard to understand?

If people like the OP had their way this would be a future ad for Bitcoin.

Quote
Bitcoin never worry about fraud again.  Transactions are irreversible*

*Except when we aribtarily and unilaterially decided to steal your coins.  We are in control of your money so you have no recourse

Maybe the "new-Bitcoin" slogan can be "Bitcoin because its worse than a bank".
theonewhowaskazu
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October 15, 2013, 06:04:28 PM
 #33

@Op,

Looks like a job for timetostartyetanotherretardedaltcoin man!

jl2012
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October 15, 2013, 06:05:44 PM
 #34

That would be okay if we started with this rule at the very beginning. You may start an alt-coin with this feature but that won't be bitcoin. We had rule changes in bitcoin, but only technical, not economical.

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theonewhowaskazu
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October 15, 2013, 06:06:29 PM
 #35

You may start an alt-coin with this feature but that won't be bitcoin. We had rule changes in bitcoin, but only technical, not economical.

Damn I can call this shit

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October 15, 2013, 06:56:33 PM
 #36

I think it would be better to leave Bitcoin just as it is and stop trying to come up with ways to steal from others.
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October 15, 2013, 07:04:44 PM
 #37

I think it would be better to leave Bitcoin just as it is and stop trying to come up with ways to steal from others.
The wanna-be thieves will never give up.

This topic comes up about every six months, as soon as they think there are enough newbies around who they might fool this time around.
Cubic Earth (OP)
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October 15, 2013, 08:16:26 PM
 #38

Do you all realize this idea would need a hard fork to implement?  Do realize that participation on a new fork is voluntary?  Do you therefore understand that no one can or will steal your bitcoins?  If you don't like a new fork (call it an alt-coin if you will), don't participate.
theonewhowaskazu
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October 15, 2013, 08:23:15 PM
 #39

Do you all realize this idea would need a hard fork to implement?  Do realize that participation on a new fork is voluntary?  Do you therefore understand that no one can or will steal your bitcoins?  If you don't like a new fork (call it an alt-coin if you will), don't participate.

Stealing is stealing, even if it is by 'majority vote.' Hence why the Bitcoin protocol should never be changed to modify the owner/value of coins.

If 60% of the population voted to forcibly confiscate & redistribute the wealth of the other 40% of the population, you think that wouldn't be theft?

Cubic Earth (OP)
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October 15, 2013, 08:33:08 PM
 #40

Stealing is stealing, even if it is by 'majority vote.' Hence why the Bitcoin protocol should never be changed to modify the owner/value of coins.

If 60% of the population voted to forcibly confiscate & redistribute the wealth of the other 40% of the population, you think that wouldn't be theft?
If you are using the current version of bitcoin, you can keep using it.  It wouldn't matter if 99% of people decided to use a different version, no one could or would steal your coins, no matter what changes the different version contained.

Now, if you are complaining because 99% of people decide they don't want your coins, and hence, they become almost worthless, well I'm *not* going to let that bother me.

Stealing is one thing, and it is foul; accusing people of stealing (or wanting to steal) just for valuing an asset differently than you might is another, and, also foul.

*edited because I forgot the word *not*
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