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Author Topic: Price rise or fall this weekend?  (Read 2658 times)
Bitman_Begins
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July 23, 2011, 12:19:09 AM
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Well we're entering the weekend and the Gox price hasn't altered much over the last 24 hours, or even the last couple of days. So who's guess is it?.. Will it go up from this price on Saturday/Sunday or down? If you look at the wider picture over the last few days it's still rising!!
Who knows where it is going??

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July 23, 2011, 01:57:13 AM
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Well we're entering the weekend and the Gox price hasn't altered much over the last 24 hours, or even the last couple of days. So who's guess is it?

This is another week where conditions for the "weekend dip" are in place.  The weekend dip happens when the high for the week (as-of Wednesday evening / Thursday morning) is lower than the previous week's high.  When that happens, it has been, more often than not, profitable to sell at that time, and then buy back on Sunday once the price appears to start rising.  The weekend dip usually returns between five and twenty percent profit.

Now this rule doesn't state the optimum time to buy or sell.  For instance, The price could rise after Thursday evening, causing the sell from Thursday morning to be premature.  Or perhaps the low was on Friday and waiting until Sunday will mean it is too late to re-enter with a profit.  And there are exceptions -- for example, because of holiday, the soonest Mt. Gox will be able to accept EU deposits is on Tuesday so the price rise might come not on Sunday but on Monday.

However, week after week a pattern occurs.  One reason this could be is because selling is possible 24x7, yet bank transfers don't clear on the weekend, thus there is selling pressure.

At some point, enough speculators will trade, expecting this cycle, and it will level out.  Last weekend there was just about 5% profit.  Or there may be no recovery, ... the dip just keeps dropping.   Or, we have a weekend like Easter weekend in April which caught many traders flush with cash and no bitcoins anywhere near the price they sold them for a couple days earlier.

Zem
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July 23, 2011, 03:59:23 AM
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Probally will be stagnate or take a dip this weekend. Pretty safe to assume it's always a good idea to have some play money available through weekends just in case.
Bitman_Begins
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July 23, 2011, 04:41:06 AM
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Thanks for the replies. I am studying...  Wink

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July 23, 2011, 07:02:47 AM
 #5

Probally will be stagnate or take a dip this weekend. Pretty safe to assume it's always a good idea to have some play money available through weekends just in case.

Yea nothing like a good 'sell-off' to get the speculative juices flowing again  Grin

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July 23, 2011, 07:35:47 AM
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Are there any other volatile stocks we can play with?
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July 23, 2011, 08:32:19 AM
 #7

Looks like so many people anticipate the weekend dip that it's currently doing absolutely nothing.  Still trading in the $13.50-$13.70 range.

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July 23, 2011, 08:39:21 AM
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The bulls know that people want to take advantage of the dip, so they wait for people to sell instead of moving up the price.

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July 23, 2011, 08:55:05 AM
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This weekend the price will oscillate between daily highs and lows, raising and falling as it does so. So to answer your question: Yes.
Bitman_Begins
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July 23, 2011, 11:22:59 AM
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This weekend the price will oscillate between daily highs and lows, raising and falling as it does so. So to answer your question: Yes.
A good answer. However I generally mean will it make a big high this weekend or take a large-ish dip? For a high, can it reach over 14.5?? For a low, will it go below 12.5??

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July 23, 2011, 11:42:25 AM
 #11

I will tell you on Monday.

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July 23, 2011, 12:38:54 PM
 #12

It'll dip.

Miners need to party and banks are closed on weekend but

Slowly the dips will become less as investors take advantage of them.


Right now I still see dip in our future. And rain on Sunday a high of 101f.


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July 23, 2011, 12:52:48 PM
 #13

This weekend the price will oscillate between daily highs and lows, raising and falling as it does so. So to answer your question: Yes.
A good answer. However I generally mean will it make a big high this weekend or take a large-ish dip? For a high, can it reach over 14.5?? For a low, will it go below 12.5??

Hehe, yeah just being a smartass  Cheesy

With regard to ranges.......I really can't see any true indicators to say what will happen, everyone's wise to the weekend trend at the moment so volumes are low in the hope that selling on Monday will give better returns. Also, what's quite interesting is that volumes are high on either side of the order book, but that little trading is being done, this indicates that both sides of the market are in agreement that the value of a bitcoin is 12 - 15 range, but neither side is seeing an opportunity to trade in either direction hence low volume......or that would be my uneducated guess.


chodpaba's analysis is about as close as you'll get to a calculated range around here:
https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=22685.msg390162#msg390162

Also worth keeping an eye on these two feeds also with ranges:
https://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinAnalyst
http://twitter.com/#!/Bitcoin_Trading

Please keep in mind that each analysis comes with it's own strengths and weaknesses, but average mean between the three is a good way to get a feel for what might be going on.
FreeJAC
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July 23, 2011, 03:05:24 PM
 #14

Well it's trending up against the caddie. It did that last weekend as well. That is when I bought thinking that would be the low.  Huh

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July 23, 2011, 03:17:52 PM
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Why are people talking about trends and fluctuations of bitcoin? Isn't it more important to discuss the efficacy, development, and acceptance of bitcoin? These things will directly influence the price itself. Speculating on the rise or fall of bitcoin price without the reasons for the fluctuations is pure guesswork. Opining is fine, but all I'm asking is to show your work.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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July 23, 2011, 04:02:21 PM
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Why are people talking about trends and fluctuations of bitcoin? Isn't it more important to discuss the efficacy, development, and acceptance of bitcoin? These things will directly influence the price itself. Speculating on the rise or fall of bitcoin price without the reasons for the fluctuations is pure guesswork. Opining is fine, but all I'm asking is to show your work.

This is the speculation sub-topic, this is what we discuss in this section. There are plenty of areas you can discuss those topics you mentioned.


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July 23, 2011, 05:09:30 PM
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I flipped a coin. It came up heads, therefore bitcoin will go up. Then I asked my dog and he barked once, so that means it is going up also. He is correct nearly 50% of the time. I will keep track of these over a period of time and let you know what the indicators say after the cat comes home for dinner.

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July 23, 2011, 06:40:16 PM
 #18

chodpaba's analysis is about as close as you'll get to a calculated range around here:

After which he said, "There is one thing that has worked better than anything I have come up with for predicting the day's price, at least lately... That is, yesterday's price."

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July 23, 2011, 07:23:43 PM
 #19

Well we're entering the weekend and the Gox price hasn't altered much over the last 24 hours, or even the last couple of days.

Mt. Gox, last 30 days.

We've now had several weeks of stability, with an overall slow downtrend.

Probably time to sell, slowly. Which is what seems to be happening.
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July 23, 2011, 07:47:07 PM
 #20

Oh Smokey Bear...what will you do....the embers of my fire lie deep in the forest and will set this market alight despite all your best efforts..... Tongue
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