new bitcoin difficulty to 263,358,983 and future profitability of mining

[vulgartrendkill]

Mining is becoming a fools game. I know, because I'm one of the fools.

 , Invidiuals should not be involved in this game from now and in the future.

Difficulty would fall and those left would gain more coin but coin would be worth less.  Not only that but because miners are the ones who confirm transactions this will take longer than it does currently

[Leehoya]

Mining is becoming a fools game. I know, because I'm one of the fools.

 , Invidiuals should not be involved in this game from now and in the future.

Difficulty would fall and those left would gain more coin but coin would be worth less.  Not only that but because miners are the ones who confirm transactions this will take longer than it does currently

I feel that the statement is not completely true. Bitcoins is estimated to grow past $200 by end of year. If people stop mining, people who want to get bitcoins would need to buy. Thus, bitcoin demand will grow higher, the price would rise.

[DontMineMe]

Mining is becoming a fools game. I know, because I'm one of the fools.

Precisely !

[lightfoot]

More of a Queen's Race, where you have to run faster and faster just to stay in place.

For details on why people would continue to do this, see "sunk cost fallacy" and "Dollar auction".

C

[macsga]

For what it's worth; I think you people didn't think about difficulty degrading at some point. I've read it somewhere here (I believe it was in the hardware/computer sales section) and didn't quite believe it to be honest. But watching the Computation/difficulty graph over here:



I begin to understand the guy's point...
Maybe I'm wrong; but maybe I'm not.

[ajw7989]

I think the difficulty will still increase dramatically since all the new machines coming out UNLESS they all somehow get pushed back months. This will only slow the growth, I doubt the difficulty will go down in the next few months though

[lightfoot]

The difficulty will simply follow the overall hashing power. If every asic were to implode tomorrow, the difficulty would drop to pre-asic levels.

The more asics that come online, the greater the difficulty. If someone figured out how to do quantum bitcoins or something the difficulty would just jump to that level.

Difficulty will go down when there is less hashing power. Which will not happen, as when people quit diff will go down and more people will get back into the game. And people will mine at a loss to minimize their investment loss.

Queen's race.

[Puppet]

For what it's worth; I think you people didn't think about difficulty degrading at some point. I've read it somewhere here (I believe it was in the hardware/computer sales section) and didn't quite believe it to be honest. But watching the Computation/difficulty graph over here:

I begin to understand the guy's point...
Maybe I'm wrong; but maybe I'm not.

We are no where near the point where hashrate will level off. You are reading tea leaves. The "drop" is either due to statistical variance or perhaps a DDoS or KnC datacenter struggling, but this is not a reversal by any means. You will see it level off eventually, but not this year. Here is a 7 day average that eliminates the statistical noise:

https://blockchain.info/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

[nwfella]

Agreed.  With increased difficulty comes increased bitcoin price.

 

I think not. Every 10 days, are mined about 2450 blocks, for a total of 61,250 bitcoins; The whole bitcoin exctracted until now, are more then 11,000,000
a so small mined quantity every 10 days (61,250) cannot influence the bitcoin price considering on the market there are more then 11,000,000 bitcoins

I think I more pointing towards the increased demand for bitcoins being the deciding factor.  I could be wrong, but I see btc going above £120 soon.

yes, you are right. It is the bitcoin demand, who regulates the price on the market. Mining activities, have a small influence on the price

The real question is, at which point do people start powering off their equipment because its just not worth it anymore because its too expensive compared to income.

I'm wondering this myself. It's starting to look as though we will have an answer to this question very soon.

[Batshit]

Well, the MISTAKE miners are making is they are calculating break-even using current or near-term BTC prices.  5-10-20 years from now, assuming mass acceptance, a BTC might be worth several orders of magnitude more than it is today.  So, taking that perspective, BTC .00001 tomorrow might be worth the same as BTC 1 today.  It is a risk, for sure.  It is a stretch, for sure.  It means mining at "losses" today, for sure.   But years from now, continuing to mine at a loss today will be seen as having been a brilliant move when BTC .0001 pays for your grandchild's university education.

Just something to think about.

On another note, I do think eventually BTC mining will be essentially centralized as the cost of machines required for big BTC mining (I'm suggesting 1+ BTC per day will qualify as big mining) continues to increase in power and price.  Then, as per design, "old technology" miners will profit from transaction fees, instead.

Just my 2 satoshi...

[Rannasha]

Well, the MISTAKE miners are making is they are calculating break-even using current or near-term BTC prices.  5-10-20 years from now, assuming mass acceptance, a BTC might be worth several orders of magnitude more than it is today.  So, taking that perspective, BTC .00001 tomorrow might be worth the same as BTC 1 today.  It is a risk, for sure.  It is a stretch, for sure.  It means mining at "losses" today, for sure.   But years from now, continuing to mine at a loss today will be seen as having been a brilliant move when BTC .0001 pays for your grandchild's university education.

Just something to think about.

On another note, I do think eventually BTC mining will be essentially centralized as the cost of machines required for big BTC mining (I'm suggesting 1+ BTC per day will qualify as big mining) continues to increase in power and price.  Then, as per design, "old technology" miners will profit from transaction fees, instead.

Just my 2 satoshi...

The one making the mistake is you, not the miners.

If you assume that the BTC price will increase, you can simply buy BTC. Instead of buying mining equipment for $1000, you could buy ~7 BTC. The mining equipment will most likely not produce 7 BTC over its lifetime, so you're better of just holding those BTC. It's also easier and less risky.

[User705]

Mining is becoming a fools game. I know, because I'm one of the fools.

 , Invidiuals should not be involved in this game from now and in the future.

Not sure how good that is.  It's bad enough that a couple of major pools are well over 50% but if there will be a few entities with well over 50% I can easily imagine the following statement sometime around next reward halving.  "Due to high mining fiat costs both ongoing and initial capital invested and a not high enough exchange rate we decided to not reduce the block reward.  Signed the miners that control the majority of hashing power."  Everyone's holding just tanked and there's nothing you can do about it.

[HellDiverUK]

Well, the MISTAKE miners are making is they are calculating break-even using current or near-term BTC prices.  5-10-20 years from now, assuming mass acceptance, a BTC might be worth several orders of magnitude more than it is today. 

The one making the mistake is you, not the miners.

I think Batshit is correct, and you're wrong, Rannasha.  My mining equipment has paid for itself - every BTC I've mined in the last year has paid for it's replacement.  My HD5870 paid for my HD6970, which paid for the first HD7950, and the 6970 and 7950 together paid for the second 7950.  The three GPUs paid for my 11 Block Erupters.  I then sold the GPUs for either what I paid for them, or more than I paid for them, and that paid for my two Blades.  They're just about to ROI on the power used since I started mining (helped by my PV array).

During the summer my mining rig will be making BTC and costing absolutely nothing to run, thanks to the solar panels.  During the winter the heat from the mining rig is heating two rooms in my house, saving heating oil, and using less than 500W from the wall.

So, I'm pretty happy to continue mining for as long as I can, and will probably invest more of my mined BTC in to new hardware in the future.  I'm keeping my eye out for used Jalapenos and Blades all the time...

[corsaro]

Well, the MISTAKE miners are making is they are calculating break-even using current or near-term BTC prices.  5-10-20 years from now, assuming mass acceptance, a BTC might be worth several orders of magnitude more than it is today.  

The one making the mistake is you, not the miners.

I think Batshit is correct, and you're wrong, Rannasha.  My mining equipment has paid for itself - every BTC I've mined in the last year has paid for it's replacement.  My HD5870 paid for my HD6970, which paid for the first HD7950, and the 6970 and 7950 together paid for the second 7950.  The three GPUs paid for my 11 Block Erupters.  I then sold the GPUs for either what I paid for them, or more than I paid for them, and that paid for my two Blades.  They're just about to ROI on the power used since I started mining (helped by my PV array).

During the summer my mining rig will be making BTC and costing absolutely nothing to run, thanks to the solar panels.  During the winter the heat from the mining rig is heating two rooms in my house, saving heating oil, and using less than 500W from the wall.

So, I'm pretty happy to continue mining for as long as I can, and will probably invest more of my mined BTC in to new hardware in the future.  I'm keeping my eye out for used Jalapenos and Blades all the time...

yes, you are right for old mining equipment bought in the past months, that extensively worked, and made profit, it is fine to keep it still working (now and for the following months).

But if someone plans to buy "today" a new mining equipment, and he will put it working "this evening", considering actual difficulty level and that difficulty will go up 30-40% every 10 days, he cannot pay more then 0.03~0.04 bitcoins for 1 GH/s otherwise he will certainly make a very low profit, and over 0.09 bitcoins per GH/s he will lose money. At this point, if he has to spend more then 0.09 bitcoins for 1 Gh/s it is better just "to buy" some bitcoins, and to wait price goes up.

Please consider that if someone put today 100GH/s to work, mining hardware will produce in 1 month ~ 4.35 bitcoins, and in successive 8 months, ~ 5.58 bitcoins

So, if someone pays today 4.35 bitcoins for the 100 GH/s mining equipment, he will earn 5.58 bitcoins in a total of 9 months. After 9 months, for the next 24 months, 100 GHS will produce not more then a total of 0.10 bitcons

if someone pays today 9.98 bitcoins for the 100 GH/s mining equipment, he will earn 0 bitcoins for the following 9 months

Sincerely I do not understand people that is actually buying on auction web sites sites, asic mining equipment, paying for 1 gigahas more then 0.10 bitcoins (~14.5 usd).
If someone wins an auction for a 5.5 Gh/s mining equipment and pay more then 79.75 usd (0.55 bitcoins) he is just making a very bad business and who sells him the asic equipment, is mining from buyer's wallet a lot of money with a very low difficulty rate ).
Probably, in these cases, it is better to buy 0.55 bitcoins, and wait some months for a probable increase in value

[lightfoot]

People are irrational. I demonstrate this myself in that I have *not* put my 7.25gh Jally up for auction. They seem to go for $300-$400, and there is no way in God's green heaven that I will make that much in bitcoin going forward. My decision not to put it up for sale *NOW* is equally irrational.

Ah well.

C

[Amph]

all those mining things, remembered me this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBDi0iM2kcU

[macsga]

@Puppet: First of, I believe that I have right:


The thing IS stabilizing and I have a perfect understanding for it. Small range miners just have to quit. The gap will be filled with bigger, better, faster TH/s rigs but; NOW it's getting lower. I find it interesting.

@Amph: Insanity and genius are separated by a thin (pretty thin) line... keep that in mind. 

[lightfoot]

Well, if you want to see the impact of the "small miners" (I'm thinking FPGA and lower) take a step back in time and look at that report from say March/April, before the ASICs hit.

That level of hashing should be all of the inefficient miners, and in an optimal world if they all quit total hashing would drop by that amount. Yes, it's significant, and yes you can finally get a BFL FPGA for your collection (that's why they are all over Ebay), but it's not that much compared to emerging ASICs.

So difficulty will not slow down from that. Nailing all the BFL ASICs might make more of a difference (my Jally will age out in Jan or so) but by then the 500-600gh things should be out.

We shall see. Block creating might be slower due to the doubling of difficulty, but it will probably recover. I wonder when the 10gh/s erupters will go out of style. Probably Jan/Feb as well.

[macsga]

@lightfoot: True story; and nicely put. Thing is that this time there's a HUGE amount of erupters out there that will (probably) quit. I don't count the VGA rigs, those in perfect sanity should have packed and sell them half a year ago. As you've said:

"We shall see"

[mogrith]

Well I found a wallet.dat on an old HD and it had 2BTC I had bought @ $.97.  I used them to Buy USB erupters. Yes my max profit would have been to trade them for USD ~$125 when I restored the wallet. But am having alot more fun this way. And have gotten a lot more than $1.98 worth of fun out of it.