new bitcoin difficulty to 263,358,983 and future profitability of mining

[Davyd05]

No where near the leveling off point, to think that is already happening before jan pre orders are met makes me laugh. We haven't even seen them start to deliver mass amounts of 1th/s systems.

Reguarding the mining I'm all for people running their rigs until profitability disappears, of course you could bank on a rise in btc but then you saw more appreciation from owning in before hand due to there being no sunk hardware costs besides the fee on buying from an exchange or maybe variance at local bitcoin exchanges.

However after looking at the return on machines that might've got here on preorder before November, I've yet to find one that returns.

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ for example what I was thinking of buying into. ( cointerra )

however I'm now set on buying BTC, imagine today I bought the equiv hardware cost in BTC (3500/147.71 = BTC23.6950 ) bitstamp avg price from bitcoinity @ 6:23pm est. That amount of BTC is without exhange costs so knock of another .46% (bitstamp fee sched @ <2k  usd volume). The fact the money has to sit in pre order while the BTC could be appreciating or depreciating would drive me insane at this point.

Estimates from the gensisblock calc link gives me 1340 usd in revenue before incurring costs instead of profit, so 1340/147.71 = BTC9 mined before unprofitability. BTC9 isn't priced at the future possible price of btc @ Jan 2014 but if my logic is correct it doesn't matter, unless the difficulty drops out like a hidden floor. Buying into btc now would net you 23.6950 - 9.07 = BTC14.6231 meaning you be better able to take advantage of a price gain.

[Batshit]

My calculations project leveling at ~1.2-1.5 B difficulty sometime Dec/Jan.  It will flatten until the ASIC gen2s hit the market mid-2014, but the impact of those will be incremental, not dramatic as we have seen when the technology has lept from CPU to GPU to FGPA to ASIC. 

Call me crazy now, but mark this post and call me a prophet in Jan/Feb when the leveling is proven.

[macsga]

...And it popped again (this time to 3PH/s)...



sigh...

[hulk]

...And it popped again (this time to 3PH/s)...



sigh...

Blame KNCminer for shipping their products on time .

[lightfoot]

Holy cow. I think they're going to start rating returns on the position you are in the US Postal guy's delivery route plus the speed of her truck.....

This is hilarious. And Eclipsemc has had the worst luck (45% and spent the last 22 hours doing a block) in the world. Would have been much better to mine PPS, but Oh well, no time machine.

C

[corsaro]

well, we are at bitcoin difficulty rate of 390,928,788 now.

some numbers:

46.02% increase from last difficulty increase;
4.80% increase every day

Historical difficulty variations, here
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B6a17Qe3LReURF91ZE1HdTFsRE0/edit?usp=sharing

Be careful when buying an asic mining equipment. Considering actual difficulty increases, I suggest you to avoid to pay more then 5 USD per Gigahash. Besides, consider that when you buy an asic mining equipment, delivery times, are very important, cause every 10 days difficulty will increase by around 40% (or more).

This web site can help you in taking a decision before losing your money in buying asic mining equipment
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

[amencon]

Well, the MISTAKE miners are making is they are calculating break-even using current or near-term BTC prices.  5-10-20 years from now, assuming mass acceptance, a BTC might be worth several orders of magnitude more than it is today. 

The one making the mistake is you, not the miners.

I think Batshit is correct, and you're wrong, Rannasha.  My mining equipment has paid for itself - every BTC I've mined in the last year has paid for it's replacement.  My HD5870 paid for my HD6970, which paid for the first HD7950, and the 6970 and 7950 together paid for the second 7950.  The three GPUs paid for my 11 Block Erupters.  I then sold the GPUs for either what I paid for them, or more than I paid for them, and that paid for my two Blades.  They're just about to ROI on the power used since I started mining (helped by my PV array).

During the summer my mining rig will be making BTC and costing absolutely nothing to run, thanks to the solar panels.  During the winter the heat from the mining rig is heating two rooms in my house, saving heating oil, and using less than 500W from the wall.

So, I'm pretty happy to continue mining for as long as I can, and will probably invest more of my mined BTC in to new hardware in the future.  I'm keeping my eye out for used Jalapenos and Blades all the time...

No Rannasha is correct.  If a mining rig won't mine as many BTC as it cost, then it's a bad investment vs just buying the BTC.  If your graphic cards minted more BTC than you would have gotten by buying BTC then you are in agreement with Rannasha and you made a good investment calculating ROI in BTC terms.

[corsaro]

Well, the MISTAKE miners are making is they are calculating break-even using current or near-term BTC prices.  5-10-20 years from now, assuming mass acceptance, a BTC might be worth several orders of magnitude more than it is today. 

The one making the mistake is you, not the miners.

I think Batshit is correct, and you're wrong, Rannasha.  My mining equipment has paid for itself - every BTC I've mined in the last year has paid for it's replacement.  My HD5870 paid for my HD6970, which paid for the first HD7950, and the 6970 and 7950 together paid for the second 7950.  The three GPUs paid for my 11 Block Erupters.  I then sold the GPUs for either what I paid for them, or more than I paid for them, and that paid for my two Blades.  They're just about to ROI on the power used since I started mining (helped by my PV array).

During the summer my mining rig will be making BTC and costing absolutely nothing to run, thanks to the solar panels.  During the winter the heat from the mining rig is heating two rooms in my house, saving heating oil, and using less than 500W from the wall.

So, I'm pretty happy to continue mining for as long as I can, and will probably invest more of my mined BTC in to new hardware in the future.  I'm keeping my eye out for used Jalapenos and Blades all the time...

No Rannasha is correct.  If a mining rig won't mine as many BTC as it cost, then it's a bad investment vs just buying the BTC.  If your graphic cards minted more BTC than you would have gotten by buying BTC then you are in agreement with Rannasha and you made a good investment calculating ROI in BTC terms.

You are 100% right: "If a mining rig won't mine as many BTC as it cost, then it's a bad investment vs just buying the BTC"
People would check http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ before buying an asic mining equipment.

[rpg]

if the difficulty continues to go up in the 40% range every 10 days its the end of the average joe mining fortunes. BTC is a business and we small guys have not been invited to the party. I'll personally continue to mine with my army of erupters I can afford $20 a month in power but I will not be paying anything over $500 just to stay competitive, probably the price of BFL 60 gig in a couple of month

[lightfoot]

Pretty much. This weekend I spent some time building 12 volt buck converters for my shed's 24 volt power system. At the next jump I'm moving my JP out to the shed with the laptop. Then it can mine on the batteries+solar panels through the winter; 50*24=1200 watts per day, panels can put out 1,500+ watts in the winter, so it should be able to run on 100ah of batteries through the evening/night/rain.

Never dull.

C

[waltermot321]

if the difficulty continues to go up in the 40% range every 10 days its the end of the average joe mining fortunes. BTC is a business and we small guys have not been invited to the party. I'll personally continue to mine with my army of erupters I can afford $20 a month in power but I will not be paying anything over $500 just to stay competitive, probably the price of BFL 60 gig in a couple of month

Pretty much this, people are quitting this mining game but the rate is too slow comparing to the one entering the market..

[TheDragonSlayer]

if the difficulty continues to go up in the 40% range every 10 days its the end of the average joe mining fortunes. BTC is a business and we small guys have not been invited to the party. I'll personally continue to mine with my army of erupters I can afford $20 a month in power but I will not be paying anything over $500 just to stay competitive, probably the price of BFL 60 gig in a couple of month

Pretty much this, people are quitting this mining game but the rate is too slow comparing to the one entering the market..

At one point I will think that the one leaving the market is faster then new miners...

[lalakies23]

That's why you should consider mining alternative cryptos like Betacoin

[lightfoot]

Ah, the days of 390. Life was so simple then....

I don't think it's ever going to stop going up by 20% a shot.