Why we may be stuck in the current range for long

[gatti]

It may be due many reasons,one among that is Full time trader.Some of the people in bitcoin trading are full time trader.If they need money means,they will sell at any price.So buy this the price of bitcoin will further decrease.

[1714166891]

1714166891

[1714166891]

1714166891

[STT]

I would have to disagree that the resistance at 12k is "an impenetrable selling wall". There is a consolidation taking place which has found that resistance at 12k and also support around 8.3k. When that happens many traders will play the range and buy the bottom and sell the top repeatedly until it breaks out. That means if it does try and breakout upwards there will be many shorts trapped that will need to buy to cover, that will be the fuel for the next spurt upwards. Equally the opposite is true if it breaks down. Anyone who thinks they can predict which of those two things will happen is fooling themselves. Trading isn't about predicting which way it will breakout but rather recognising it when it happens and then reacting quickly to that.

Well, maybe I should have clarified it a little further in OP. I don't mean that 12k itself is impenetrable. It is what sits above this mark which may be quite hard to pass through. Look, people have been buying all the way down from like 15k. Now many of them will be eager to sell at or slightly above their entry points, that is anywhere in between 12-20k. In other words, it is not like you break out of the resistance at this price level and then there will be no more significant resistance. To the contrary, I'm strongly inclined to think that there will be even more resistance building when (if) we manage to get above that price somehow.

No resistance is absolute I agree.    It varies on volume of selling also.   (also demand subsequently to pass that ceiling later)  The chart in full candlestick would be more accurate in its conclusions but its more clear as a plain closing price line I guess.   Is it daily prices used ?
The double top is not exactly right as the second price is lower, so a declining trend in play there not as much a double top showing resistance to the same price twice.

I gave one of your posts merit as requested anyhow

Patterns : https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_top_reversal
It should be like a M I think

[nightmanisrightman]

It may be due many reasons,one among that is Full time trader.Some of the people in bitcoin trading are full time trader.If they need money means,they will sell at any price.So buy this the price of bitcoin will further decrease.

Yeah but full time traders don't outright control the markets. If enough people are buying Bitcoin the price will surely go up, no matter how many shorters or full time traders are selling. Maybe I am being naive here and underestimating their power, but I don't believe they have that power.

[Jet Cash]

I suspect we are going to have to cope with extreme volatility until a lot of major issues are resolved

Trump vs. Clinton
The reduction in power of the Rothschilds
The collapse of the EU
The establishment of the Petro-Yuan or Petro-Ruble
The release of the major world digital currencies released by Governments.

and so on..........

As the Chinese say - we are entering interesting times.

and don't forget Brexit.

[xfaqs01]

I would have to disagree that the resistance at 12k is "an impenetrable selling wall". There is a consolidation taking place which has found that resistance at 12k and also support around 8.3k. When that happens many traders will play the range and buy the bottom and sell the top repeatedly until it breaks out. That means if it does try and breakout upwards there will be many shorts trapped that will need to buy to cover, that will be the fuel for the next spurt upwards. Equally the opposite is true if it breaks down. Anyone who thinks they can predict which of those two things will happen is fooling themselves. Trading isn't about predicting which way it will breakout but rather recognising it when it happens and then reacting quickly to that.

wow this amazing coZ i thinking the same way, though im seeing a support level at 8.2k or 7.4k if 9k cant support the sell wall in still bullish on the trend right now overall, itll just take sometine to revisit the highs maybe july or august, i think were long way to go for consolidations as lot of shorters and bot are playing this time. just my sent.

[magneto]

As I've stated previously, don't expect a lot of price movement out of this year. Most likely we ain't going anywhere, just staying put between $7k-15k. I'd be surprised if bitcoin breaks that lower support or the resistance. And only if it does move below or above those figures will the markets start to become super volatile like last year, whether in the upwards or downwards direction.

Of course we've tried to break $12k two times now, with no success either time.

If we do break 5 figures again which I think we will soon, $12k will be the immediate resistance. If we can't break it a third time then we may be going lower. It's a huge resistance that has been building up, and actually strengthening due to psychological reason as well because of the failed attempts of breaching it, but it's not impossible or impenetrable.

[UnDerDoG81]

I suspect we are going to have to cope with extreme volatility until a lot of major issues are resolved

Trump vs. Clinton
The reduction in power of the Rothschilds

Explain!

I am not watching news or TV. I thought Trump vs. Clinton is decided? Trump won.
When I hear Rothschild, I feel sick. What ya mean by reduction of power? Sounds good to me.

[RamonBTC]

Fud or not. This rally is over. Prepare for the slumber.

That’s better be the best strategy to go. Ignore negativity and continue to be positive whatever comes. Do encourage oneself to be not affected from such fuds that can’t even help on deciding about your assets. This range is stable or stuck after a big dip and lower increase as the investors is just observing movement and won’t just jump faster without analysing the market.

[nc50lc]

I suspect we are going to have to cope with extreme volatility until a lot of major issues are resolved

Trump vs. Clinton
The reduction in power of the Rothschilds

Explain!

I am not watching news or TV. I thought Trump vs. Clinton is decided? Trump won.
When I hear Rothschild, I feel sick. What ya mean by reduction of power? Sounds good to me.

Based on what he said "and so on.........." it must be a timeline of events that affect traders' decisions.

But I don't think that Trump vs Clinton presidential election made a huge impact to the 2017 Q4's Bubble.
The ATH was brought by (in order) the Forks (more are buying BTC and withdrawing those out of exchanges to get more forked coins), News about being maintream and FUD brought by the crazy price surge.

.....and the uncontrollable spam in the Bitcoin Discussion Board,
for example: Will you still buy at 17k?/20k? - with 100 Replies like: bdsbx rberbYESbdbsajdsd snd!

[removebeforeflight]

Bitcoin trending around $10k is a healthy sign as per my knowledge, last year same period Bitcoin was trending around $1k and this years it is x10 times. Next year we can assume it would be trending around $50k. This is actually a good trend in fact, I agree with your data and graph but still I would say the peak is yet to come probably in July and my expectation is around $60k.

[poplolnman]

As I've stated previously, don't expect a lot of price movement out of this year. Most likely we ain't going anywhere, just staying put between $7k-15k. I'd be surprised if bitcoin breaks that lower support or the resistance. And only if it does move below or above those figures will the markets start to become super volatile like last year, whether in the upwards or downwards direction.

Of course we've tried to break $12k two times now, with no success either time.

If we do break 5 figures again which I think we will soon, $12k will be the immediate resistance. If we can't break it a third time then we may be going lower. It's a huge resistance that has been building up, and actually strengthening due to psychological reason as well because of the failed attempts of breaching it, but it's not impossible or impenetrable.

We've achieved a lot of great things last year , and now we would only see a correction that mostly considered as a normal situation that shows how healthy crypto market , is it what u mean? Great things would remain keep coming this year , Bitcoin has turned mainstream and we just need some breakthrough to completely change the 12k resistance to 12k as support and we move up again. What could make this breakthrough are A clear regulation from the biggest crypto market like China , or a superpower country like Russia officially legalize Bitcoin that could change the way common people look at investment and currency into how crypto could be the perfect option without fear to start get to know and use Bitcoin as investment or a payment tool. Did u know how big money build the resistance ? It's breach just like that , waiting for various trader around the world build this resistance wouldn't surprise me if we stuck at the current range for long time. We need something big and I think almost every year it's happened in crypto.

[Lieldoryn]

Now a few large investors are selling their bitcoins. For this reason, the price is kept at a stable level. This is a good sign. This means that the trend is positive and only large volumes of sales keep prices. As soon as the process of selling large sums will be completed prices will soar to the moon. I think it will be in 2-3 months.

[BitHodler]

It's going to be an interesting time for sure. If we look at last year, then we dipped slightly under $900 around March 25, where from that point the market kept going up like there is no tomorrow.

I don't say that we'll experience the same sort of market movement, and especially with how mtgox is playing an important role, but it just shows that even at current levels, we are doing excellent, even if some people don't feel it.

People are so much used to staring at $20,000, that they completely ignore how exactly one year ago we were hovering under the $1000 mark. In other words, back then below $1000, and now below $10,000. How bad can that be?

Do you guys even understand how much of an increase that is? And how ridiculously bad and fake that $20,000 peak looks? Speculative nonsense, nothing more.

[Weawant]

Now a few large investors are selling their bitcoins. For this reason, the price is kept at a stable level. This is a good sign. This means that the trend is positive and only large volumes of sales keep prices. As soon as the process of selling large sums will be completed prices will soar to the moon. I think it will be in 2-3 months.

Some of them sold their shares due to that MT.Gox shares dumping issues happened this past days. Those events really brought bitcoins go a huge hell dump which people afraid to handle with, But if things will became silent and certain good developments will came then provably we might gonna see a huge price pump comes on the bitcoins on the next following months.

[Hell-raiser]

Honestly, I think you are clutching at straws here.

You're welcome to think that. I've been a professional futures trader for over 12 years and that is how I read the situation. I didn't say that the drop from 20k was "due to massive shorts". That was naturally started by profit taking and that then induces the shorts to come in. I'm saying that there are a lot of traders short right now with an entry price of less than 12k. If that gets tested they'll panic and buy to cover. That then causes a pop that induces the longs to come back in and chase it. Rinse and repeat, that's how markets move.

No offense intended but it just doesn't feel right. You say that you've been a professional trader for a dozen of years, but how successful were you really? So many years of a successful trading career would make you into a multimillionaire who wouldn't give a fuck about posting here. Further, you didn't say that the fall from 20k was due to shorts. That's what you meant. Anyway, the price didn't get there overnight, someone had been buying all the way up and this necessitates someone else should have been selling. Besides, it seems to be universally recognized already and even confirmed by the trustee himself that the recent price crash was exactly due to off-loading of the Gox coins in the open market.

[TheQuin]

No offense intended but

Whatever, think what you want but I gave some good advice about trading there and you're welcome to learn from it or ignore it.

The market is in a consolidation which means that there are traders in long positions and traders in short positions and when it looks like it is going to break out one side will panic. That is what will decide the direction we go next.

Go back and read what I said again. All moves come to an end due to profit taking and that induces others to chase.

Oh, and professional traders are not all multi-millionaires. It's a tough job and most of grind out a living.

Besides, it seems to be universally recognized already and even confirmed (https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-drops-8300-mt-gox-trustee-sell-off-continues-market-drops/) by the trustee himself that the recent price crash was exactly due to off-loading of the Gox coins in the open market.

What the article actually says:

Analysts like WhalePanda have attributed to the recent fall to....

Hmmm...

[talks_cheep]

I thought and stated that a carnage would start in January 2018 but I was wrong. This downturn started in February 2018 and will continue for a long time, maybe until end of 2019. We will see $2000 by then. Why? Because the fundamentals are weak, governments around the world have started to crack down, and investors have become wiser.

[Hell-raiser]

Oh, and professional traders are not all multi-millionaires. It's a tough job and most of grind out a living.

Well, somehow grinding out a living doesn't resonate quite well with being a professional futures trader for 12 years. At least, not in the sense you meant it.

Besides, it seems to be universally recognized already and even confirmed (https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-drops-8300-mt-gox-trustee-sell-off-continues-market-drops/) by the trustee himself that the recent price crash was exactly due to off-loading of the Gox coins in the open market.

What the article actually says:

Analysts like WhalePanda have attributed to the recent fall to....

Did you read the piece in its entirety? It is only one page long, and right after that WhalePanda citation, the Mt. Gox trustee himself says the following:

As a result of the consultation with the court, I considered it necessary and reasonable to sell a certain amount of BTC and BCC at this point and secure a certain amount of money for distribution resources, and thus, I sold the amount of BTC and BCC above. I made efforts to sell BTC and BCC at as high a price as possible in light of the market price of BTC and BCC at the timing of sale. I plan to consult with the court and determine further sale of BTC and BCC

Moreover, he is going to sell more than $1.7 billion worth of Bitcoin in the upcoming months, so everyone should beware of more profound price declines. He still has 160k BTC against 40k already sold.

[TheQuin]

Oh, and professional traders are not all multi-millionaires. It's a tough job and most of grind out a living.

Well, somehow grinding out a living doesn't resonate quite well with being a professional futures trader for 12 years.

Thank you for demonstrating you have no idea what being a professional trader involves. I have made a living from trading for just over 12 years which is far more successful than most that have tried.

Besides, it seems to be universally recognized already and even confirmed (https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-drops-8300-mt-gox-trustee-sell-off-continues-market-drops/) by the trustee himself that the recent price crash was exactly due to off-loading of the Gox coins in the open market.

What the article actually says:

Analysts like WhalePanda have attributed to the recent fall to....

Did you read the piece in its entirety? It is only one page long, and right after that WhalePanda citation, the Mt. Gox trustee himself says the following:

As a result of the consultation with the court, I considered it necessary and reasonable to sell a certain amount of BTC and BCC at this point and secure a certain amount of money for distribution resources, and thus, I sold the amount of BTC and BCC above. I made efforts to sell BTC and BCC at as high a price as possible in light of the market price of BTC and BCC at the timing of sale. I plan to consult with the court and determine further sale of BTC and BCC

Moreover, he is going to sell more than $1.7 billion worth of Bitcoin in the upcoming months, so everyone should beware of more profound price declines.

Yes, I did read it and that quote in no way says what you said it did. He says that he sold them, he does not say that the price drop was caused by that action.

Moreover, he is going to sell more than $1.7 billion worth of Bitcoin in the upcoming months, so everyone should beware of more profound price declines.

Everyone in this case not including traders who will pay far more attention to order flow.

[Hell-raiser]

Oh, and professional traders are not all multi-millionaires. It's a tough job and most of grind out a living.

Well, somehow grinding out a living doesn't resonate quite well with being a professional futures trader for 12 years.

Thank you for demonstrating you have no idea what being a professional trader involves. I have made a living from trading for just over 12 years which is far more successful than most that have tried.

Then your reference to being a professional trader is meaningless.

And the longer we stay at sub-10k levels, the more resistance will be building above 10k.

you can also say that the more we stay at sub 10k and above certain prices like for example above $9000 there is more buy support building up at $9000
that is why price keeps going back to that level again and bounces back up to test $12k again.

It turns out there was no meaningful support at 9k. The price went down 2 thousand dollars to below 8k like nothing, and it doesn't look there is enough support building up there either. From my perspective, the price doesn't go lower simply because no one is actively selling at these prices, not because buying walls are springing up. If there is no volume, after some time Bitcoin will continue falling when last hopes for a massive breakout vanish. And then 12k will become a new 20k.