Why we may be stuck in the current range for long

[TheQuin]

Then your reference to being a professional trader is meanigless.

Your ignorance of what it takes to consistently make a living from trading in no way diminishes what I have pointed out. Go back to drawing pretty lines on your charts and see how far that gets you.

[1714807262]

1714807262

[1714807262]

1714807262

[1714807262]

1714807262

[spikyz]

Serious question, does G20 meeting will have any effect towards bitcoin price?

[talkbitcoin]

The ATH was brought by (in order) the Forks (more are buying BTC and withdrawing those out of exchanges to get more forked coins), News about being maintream and FUD brought by the crazy price surge.

.....and the uncontrollable spam in the Bitcoin Discussion Board,
for example: Will you still buy at 17k?/20k? - with 100 Replies like: bdsbx rberbYESbdbsajdsd snd!

1. forks: they may have affected bitcoin price but any effect would have been temporary, because if you believe that people bought bitcoin only to get those coins, then the same people would have dumped what they have bought + the profit they gained as soon as fork was done so price should have dropped bigger and as soon as forks were done. for example right after BCH fork, BTG fork and so on depending on their fork-size.

2. i don't think you know what FUD means. FUD is not something that brings price surge!

3. if you think spaming bullshit on bitcointalk can change anything about price then you know nothing of the price

[Hell-raiser]

I thought and stated that a carnage would start in January 2018 but I was wrong. This downturn started in February 2018 and will continue for a long time, maybe until end of 2019. We will see $2000 by then. Why? Because the fundamentals are weak, governments around the world have started to crack down, and investors have become wiser.

The carnage started as early as December. But it took a month before people realized how deep in trouble they were. In February, the price crashed below 10k but just in January it went down half of its December highs. Though I don't think we will see prices below 3k, at least not for long. Other than that, I'm going to say there are no fundamentals in the stock market sense. This is all speculation, and we may be past its peak already.

Then your reference to being a professional trader is meanigless.

Your ignorance of what it takes to consistently make a living from trading in no way diminishes what I have pointed out. Go back to drawing pretty lines on your charts and see how far that gets you.

That's pathetic. Someone who claims to be an allegedly successful "professional trader" for a dozen years is posting for money on a forum.

[TheQuin]

That's pathetic. Someone who claims to be an allegedly successful "professional trader" is posting for money on a forum.

I went past the paid posts count this week ages ago. I've got time to kill until US markets open. I'm also a Bitcoin enthusiast and have been involved for a long time. I get a lot out of participating on this forum and the bit of extra coin I get for renting out my sig is inconsequential.

What is really pathetic is how you turned my disagreeing with your analysis into a personal attack on me.

[Hell-raiser]

That's pathetic. Someone who claims to be an allegedly successful "professional trader" is posting for money on a forum.

I went past the paid posts count this week ages ago. I've got time to kill until US markets open. I'm also a Bitcoin enthusiast and have been involved for a long time. I get a lot out of participating on this forum and the bit of extra coin I get for renting out my sig is inconsequential.

What is really pathetic is how you turned my disagreeing with your analysis into a personal attack on me

You didn't disagree with my analysis in any constructive way, to begin with. You came up with contrived arguments like who was selling when the market was trading near December highs and ended up with references to your "professional trading career", as if it could give more substance and weight to your argument. And then it turned out that you have essentially nothing to be bragging about, either.

And now a scar-riddled and battle-hardened trader whines about some personal attacks. Now stop crying kiddie and get a life!

[TheQuin]

You didn't disagree with my analysis in any constructive way, to begin with. You came up with contrived arguments like who was selling when the market was trading near December highs

A reminder that it was a constructive counterargument.

I would have to disagree that the resistance at 12k is "an impenetrable selling wall". There is a consolidation taking place which has found that resistance at 12k and also support around 8.3k. When that happens many traders will play the range and buy the bottom and sell the top repeatedly until it breaks out. That means if it does try and breakout upwards there will be many shorts trapped that will need to buy to cover, that will be the fuel for the next spurt upwards. Equally the opposite is true if it breaks down. Anyone who thinks they can predict which of those two things will happen is fooling themselves. Trading isn't about predicting which way it will breakout but rather recognising it when it happens and then reacting quickly to that.

..and ended up with references to your "professional trading career", as if it could give more substance and weight to your argument.

After you just dismissed my reading of the situation with this.

Honestly, I think you are clutching at straws here.

And then it turned out that you have essentially nothing to be bragging about either.

When you chuck a well paying IT career in and start off with $50k trading capital you saved and then support yourself from the income. Then do that for at least 3 years you'll have something interesting to say on that. Until then you're just another wannabee playing with TA that is as reliable as astrology.

And now you complain about personal attacks. Don't cry!

I'm not crying, I'm trying not to laugh at you as I'm actually starting to feel sorry for you.

[raven7886]

I also think bitcoin will be in range for a very long time. Bitcoin has done very well last year and I think it will take more time before we can actually see another great progress. I don't think the price will go down more than $6,000 this time around and we may also see the high it can go now is $12,000. If any positive things happen then  we may began to see some recovery.

It will be good to have some period of consolidation anyway after the market has been bared out. Over time, this could give time for accumulation, for the market to gather enough momentum and we can then see what happens next from there. I am still very optimistic the market will recover, but we cannot say when and we just have to wait for it anyway, so the little we have to play with now, that is good enough.

The 12k wall can be penetrable but that would be with some high volume and then we may have to need some good news to get that out of the way. I somehow agree with all that you have said, and I want to believe that we may actually end up consolidating for a while now until we are able to gather momentum. However, the more we consolidate, the more we still stand any chance of a 50:50 occurrence in the market of going lower or testing the hard resistances.

[arpon11]

Serious question, does G20 meeting will have any effect towards bitcoin price?

I think it might have infect on bitcoin pricing as there is always a negative reactions when bitcoin price goes down. Bitcoin has been having good days and has strive to remain relevant all over the world but many people especially those that failed to understand how it works keep saying that bitcoin need to be banned or regulated. The G20 meeting are part of the tools that are going to be used to regulate bitcoin price.

[Hazir]

Unless we will have some positive news I doubt that bitcoin price will soar again - we are now entered a deep bear market.
I cannot remember what was a truly positive bitcoin news in mainstream media in 2018 - we only keep hearing about negative things related to BTC.
But honestly, the current price is still better than most people expected we could have prior to that manic rush in December 2017.

[liseff3]

When Bitcoin was going to its ATH in December, many people here assumed that Bitcoin price wouldn't go below 12k. And at first it looked exactly like that. Bitcoin rebounded strongly at a little below 13k and went all the way up to 15-16k. Those who didn't believe in that theory finally became convinced and bought in when the price plunged again. And then we all know what happened. Bitcoin went as low as 6k. Now it seems that 12k turned into an impenetrable selling wall which will be hard to crush because those who bought at that and higher levels will now be trying to close their positions at all costs. And the longer we stay at sub-10k levels, the more resistance will be building above 10k.



So we are kinda stuck in this range of 8-11k.

We are trapped because there is a third party who wants us trapped. Bitcoin prices are currently unpredictable because the market is not running properly (controlled by a third party). But i'm very sure bitcoin will not slip to the same place that is $ 6,000.

[nightfury]

I think we will stuck for this price range for long if there will be no other investors are interested or attracted to bitcoins because other bitcoin investors already dump some of their bitcoin as they buy it for alt coins.

[tbterryboy]

I rather believe technical analysis is more useful to understand the past. Trading predictions massively fail, and that’s why 95% of traders lose money, but when you say traders recognize a pattern and react, I think they contribute to the changes: they believe it will go up, thus, they buy, and price goes up. They believe it will go down, they start selling and more panic comes, dragging down the price.

The title itself it’s quite revealing “Why we may…” So, I think we may or may not.

People would be surprised how little technical analysis professional traders use. Often nothing more sophisticated than using horizontal lines to mark support and resistance levels, not that they are going to trade them, but just as an area of interest to start paying a bit more attention and see if they can see some clues in the order flow.

There is a massive industry in selling TA tools and education based on TA targetted entirely at retail traders. If you visit a prop trading desk you will not see any of it in use.

Personally for me, I got fed up with indicators a long time ago and I started playing price actions on trend lines, support and resistance with my stop loss intact. At least, the insanity of having to draw up so many conclusions with a lot of TA is no longer there and I just prefer trading those candles better. It is a complex and new market, so it seems, one will just have to accept that you have to be extra careful.

[ninabobo]

When Bitcoin was going to its ATH in December, many people here assumed that Bitcoin price wouldn't go below 12k. And at first it looked exactly like that. Bitcoin rebounded strongly at a little below 13k and went all the way up to 15-16k. Those who didn't believe in that theory finally became convinced and bought in when the price plunged again. And then we all know what happened. Bitcoin went as low as 6k. Now it seems that 12k turned into an impenetrable selling wall which will be hard to crush because those who bought at that and higher levels will now be trying to close their positions at all costs. And the longer we stay at sub-10k levels, the more resistance will be building above 10k.



So we are kinda stuck in this range of 8-11k.

maybe. but the main factor of the decline due to several factors over the ban from some countries and follow by facebook and google. this is the domain of the decline. the current situation is so difficult to determine and predict. and right now bitcoin tends to be like what you say.

[Hell-raiser]

When you chuck a well paying IT career in and start off with $50k trading capital you saved and then support yourself from the income. Then do that for at least 3 years you'll have something interesting to say on that. Until then you're just another wannabee playing with TA that is as reliable as astrology.

And now you complain about personal attacks. Don't cry!

I'm not crying, I'm trying not to laugh at you as I'm actually starting to feel sorry for you.

So you are just some random IT dude who claims to be a professional trader. Okay, I got it, now get over yourself and stop whining.

It will be good to have some period of consolidation anyway after the market has been bared out. Over time, this could give time for accumulation, for the market to gather enough momentum and we can then see what happens next from there. I am still very optimistic the market will recover, but we cannot say when and we just have to wait for it anyway, so the little we have to play with now, that is good enough.

The 12k wall can be penetrable but that would be with some high volume and then we may have to need some good news to get that out of the way. I somehow agree with all that you have said, and I want to believe that we may actually end up consolidating for a while now until we are able to gather momentum. However, the more we consolidate, the more we still stand any chance of a 50:50 occurrence in the market of going lower or testing the hard resistances.

I'm not a clairvoyant and don't pretend to be the one but I think there is no real consolidation going on. We slipped past 9 and then 8k like there was no support at all. As stated above, people will get tired of waiting if things keep on moving or rather staying like now. That means there will be downward momentum constantly adding up until prices correct further to a new low. As I previously said too, 12k may then become a new 20k and turn into a literally impenetrable ceiling.

[TheQuin]

So you are just some random IT dude who claims to be a professional trader. Okay, I got it, now get over yourself and stop whining.

A professional trader is someone who makes their living from trading. I'm sorry if that is too complicated for you to understand. I was lucky enough to be working as an IT consultant for various investment banks and learned from many professionals back then. Knowledge passed on from those who do is far more valuable than all the random gurus that make a living selling trading education, they are mostly failed traders. If you don't want to pay any attention to the advice I gave that's your loss, not mine.

Enjoy your charts. /Quin out

[Hell-raiser]

If you don't want to pay any attention to the advice I gave that's your loss, not mine.

Your advice has already been proven wrong and thus pointless. There was no support at 8.3k as you claimed. We easily went past it down to 7.6k the next day you wrote your "advice", and the chances are we will likely go lower in the coming days. So far things look bleak for Bitcoin and crypto as whole. There is neither support nor consolidation at current levels. I think you are way overestimating your predictive powers and understanding of the markets.

Anyway, good luck to you and your trading "career".

[TheQuin]

If you don't want to pay any attention to the advice I gave that's your loss, not mine.

Your advice has already been proven wrong and thus pointless. There was no support at 8.3k as you claimed. We easily went past it down to 7.6k the next day you wrote your "advice", and the chances are we will likely go lower in the coming days. So far things look bleak for Bitcoin and crypto as whole. There is neither support nor consolidation at current levels. I think you are way overestimating your predictive powers and understanding of the markets.

Anyway, good luck to you and your trading "career".

Good luck on learning to read.

Equally the opposite is true if it breaks down. Anyone who thinks they can predict which of those two things will happen is fooling themselves. Trading isn't about predicting which way it will breakout but rather recognising it when it happens and then reacting quickly to that.

Lol

[yrreg ger]

Unless we will have some positive news I doubt that bitcoin price will soar again - we are now entered a deep bear market.
I cannot remember what was a truly positive bitcoin news in mainstream media in 2018 - we only keep hearing about negative things related to BTC.
But honestly, the current price is still better than most people expected we could have prior to that manic rush in December 2017.

Right, the banning news doesn't seem to end and this is is greatly affecting the market prices. I hate to admit it but I am getting worried about my investments and I know that I am not the only one. We really need some good news about bitcoin or cryptos and I hope that it will be this week. The market prices are going on red and I don't want to think that we may be staying at this state for a long time. I know that after dumps, bitcoin and other cryptos will regain their high prices.

[ultrloa]

Unless we will have some positive news I doubt that bitcoin price will soar again - we are now entered a deep bear market.
I cannot remember what was a truly positive bitcoin news in mainstream media in 2018 - we only keep hearing about negative things related to BTC.
But honestly, the current price is still better than most people expected we could have prior to that manic rush in December 2017.

Right, the banning news doesn't seem to end and this is is greatly affecting the market prices. I hate to admit it but I am getting worried about my investments and I know that I am not the only one. We really need some good news about bitcoin or cryptos and I hope that it will be this week. The market prices are going on red and I don't want to think that we may be staying at this state for a long time. I know that after dumps, bitcoin and other cryptos will regain their high prices.

This huge dump are totally creating a huge panic to majority on investor and I can't blame you to get worried for this current situation since the dump is so huge which is so awful to see. But I'm expecting this to be happen since mid year is totally a crazy months for bitcoin and we can expect that huge pump will came on next following days. Remember Crypto whales doesn't allow bitcoin to get dump and reach for its baddest price.