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Author Topic: [2018-03-15] Effects of Mt. Gox Trustee's $400 Mln Sale on Bitcoin Market  (Read 70 times)
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March 15, 2018, 10:08:43 AM
 #1



On March 7 a report addressed to the Tokyo District Court revealed that a Mt. Gox bankruptcy trustee – Nobuaki Kobayashi – may have contributed to the three month downtrend in the cryptocurrency market.

Over the past three months, Nobuaki Kobayashi has sold over $300 mln in Bitcoin on two public exchanges. Some critics believe Kobayashi's sales put so many Bitcoin back into circulation, that the sales contributed to severe drops in the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has declined 51.6 percent since its Dec. 17 peak of almost $20,000, and it is suspected that Kobayashi was a significant factor in the decline.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/effects-of-mt-gox-trustees-400-mln-sale-on-bitcoin-market
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March 15, 2018, 01:35:28 PM
 #2



I agree that the release of those Bitcoin back into circulation by no less than this man from Mt. Gox became the main factor for the on-and-off decline happening right now in Bitcoin. Who would have imagine that a big and historical fall of Mt. Gox years ago will still be indirectly affecting the fortune of Bitcoin in 2018. Sadly the market is reacting to the increase of supply negatively...hopefully this can be soon arrested and people will see this as a great opportunity to enter or re-enter Bitcoin.

 
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March 15, 2018, 01:40:48 PM
 #3

The short-run effect is indeed not very much felt at the time the sell offs happened in January and February. However, the sear number of bitcoins they are offloading has really caused a great increase in the supply of bitcoins after they unloaded for already three straight months in effect that has offset the initial demand for it hence the price drops. I guess everybody had their fill when Mt. Gox trustees started to sell the bitcoins.
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March 15, 2018, 02:10:12 PM
 #4

Even though $400mn is just some percentage  of bitcoin , it did affect the bitcoin price for sure .
At the time Mt. Gox trustees were selling off their bitcoin , bitcoin was at its peak and not only did the Mt. Gox trustees but also the people like us were selling off , being the best time for the sell off . It was quite predictable that bitcoin would fall every time it comes to its peak due to this sole reason . People would sell off at the best time , and that was the best time tbh !

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March 15, 2018, 06:49:23 PM
 #5

People should look at things from a different perspective. I believe that these MtGox dumpings are the best thing that could have happened to Bitcoin in a very long time. It's much better to have them dump their coins in current stage, than at whatever later point when the market would be hovering over $100,000 levels, which would cause a lot more damage overall. It's not healthy to have one or more large holders forming more of a problem with every year that goes by. The sooner these MtGox get dumped, the better it will be for the market in the long run. It will have very negative short term consequences for the market, but after that things will be different where investors will gain more confidence.

Do people remember this thread? What if this guy with 96,651 BTC suddenly cashes out?

My reply;
In the same way, you could ask what would happen if;

Satoshi with his assumed 1,000,000BTC cashes out.
Mark Karpeles with his assumed 300,000BTC cashes out.
Roger Ver with his assumed 300,000BTC cashes out.
Jihan Wu with his assumed 200,000BTC cashes out.

Depending on the exchange, especially in case of Satoshi, it would cause a flash crash tanking the price down to sub $10 levels.
Mark Karpeles stood up! Cheesy

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March 15, 2018, 06:58:45 PM
 #6

and it is suspected that Kobayashi was a significant factor in the decline.

Kobayashi was a significant factor in the decline. Btw, is this the guy from "The Usual Suspects"?
And end of year - new year tax was a significant factor in the decline.
And everybody knew that after such a fantastic growth the correction had to happen. So the growth in November and December was a significant factor in the decline.
And the traders cashing out their gains over a year that had over 17x growth had a significant factor in the decline.
The "bad news factory" also had a significant factor in the decline.

If we sum them up, you can see that Kobayashi was only one factor of the many. And I may have missed some.

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March 15, 2018, 07:33:09 PM
 #7

I say that he is one of the factors. But it looks like its clear now, the ghost of the past still haunting us. LOL. But then again, he's either dumb or just really doing his job offloading the coins from who knows when he started in up to March of last week. But the latest news is that he needs some court order before he can offload anew and the next court appearance is in September, so its safe to assume that no dumping should occur from today up to that court hearing. But the damage has been done, and to add fuel to the already volatile market, the G20 meeting will be another contributing factor (either positive or negative). So another critical event we need to monitor and see how will affect us in the next couple of days.

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March 15, 2018, 09:18:46 PM
 #8

Reading this makes me angry every time. I don't get why it always has to be Gox. First Gox allowed itself to be hacked, then it faked transactions to pump the price, it kept its insolvency a secret for months taking people's money and all that happened while Karpeles was getting fatter and fatter living in his Tokyo apartment and paying for hookers with embezzled money! That fat prick not only got away with all of it, but it's even possible that he will get some more money out of it.
And now this idiot dumps coins during a correction, instead of doing it while the prices are growing or simply do it at an auction. Have mercy!

 
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March 16, 2018, 02:40:21 AM
 #9

FFS did anyone actually READ the article? OP did a horrible job of summarizing:

Quote
Conclusion: Kobayashi’s actions not so significant

The rebound in the price of Bitcoin from the alleged declines caused by Kobayashi may have also been induced by Kobayashi.

It’s possible that investors bought more Bitcoin after Kobayashi drove the price down, which moved the price of Bitcoin back up and caused the cryptocurrency to finish in the green four out of the five sale days.

The correlation between Kobayashi selling Bitcoin and the return on Bitcoin for the day is negatively correlated at -.655240891. This means that the movements in the price of Bitcoin and the amount of coins that Kobayashi unloads on the market move independently of each other.


https://cointelegraph.com/news/effects-of-mt-gox-trustees-400-mln-sale-on-bitcoin-market

Please stop feeding the bears and perpetuating self-fulfilling FUD.

- Goxees are actually receiving settlements?! Wowee. How much of that will come right back into crypto? Kobayashi may be an idiot, and a short-lived one at that, but the fact that Bitcoin has appreciated so frucking much that the trustee only needed to liquidate 15% of the recovered stash to pay back ALL the creditors' claims is a miracle in and of itself. That's not exactly how the story ended with Bernie Madoff's clients. This fact is being WAY under-reported. I can't believe the market is focused so much more on slippage instead of Bitcoin's incredible asset appreciation since then. The real idiots in this story are the judge and creditors who insisted on being paid back in fiat-equivalent at the time of Gox's collapse instead of Bitcoin, just because the price of BTC continued to collapse post-Mt Gox. Oh ye of little faith, careful what you ask for and now eat your frucking cake!
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