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Author Topic: Why the loss of confidence in litecoin?  (Read 13701 times)
laowai80
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November 21, 2013, 08:28:49 AM
 #161

And the LTC miners won't be greedy?

It actually isn't greed on the part of BTC miners.  The orphan cost for a BTC miner is 3.3 mBTC per kB of block size.  Most tx pay less than that.  Miners are reluctant to make significantly larger blocks because it means they actually lose money.  If you get 0.1 mBTC per kB of block size and lose 3.3 mBTC per kB of block size due to increased orphans it doesn't make much sense to increase the block size.

LTC has the exact same economics.  It just so happens right now it is used for absolutely nothing and thus blocks have a negligible amount of txs.   If its tx volume grew it would be looking at the exact same outcome.

Yes, please read what I posted above. LTC will take over just for some time, LTC miners will also be greedy. Then some other alt-coin takes over, until its miners become too greedy, and users switch to another alt-coin for micro-payments. I don't have illusions about human nature, and knowing it, this is the most natural development to occur.
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November 21, 2013, 08:32:04 AM
 #162

Well it is a theory.  A dubious one best on wishes and hopes but it is a theory.  Read again, BTC miners aren't being greedy it just doesn't make sense to radically expand block sizes.   Average fees on paying Bitcoin txs have actually gone down over the last two years.  The issue is the large number of free tx and a reluctance on miners to expand block sizes especially for free tx only to have them lose money to higher orphan rates.

Miners actually have very little pricing power.  If one miner won't accept a paying tx then another one will and the first just makes less money.  With pools it means the first pool is less profitable and miners switch to pools which accept more paying txs.
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November 21, 2013, 08:37:06 AM
 #163

Well it is a theory.  A dubious one best on wishes and hopes but it is a theory.  Read again, BTC miners aren't being greedy it just doesn't make sense to radically expand block sizes.   Average fees on paying Bitcoin txs have actually gone down over the last two years.  The issue is the large number of free tx and a reluctance on miners to expand block sizes especially for free tx only to have them lose money to higher orphan rates.

Miners actually have very little pricing power.  If one miner won't accept a paying tx then another one will and the first just makes less money.  With pools it means the first pool is less profitable and miners switch to pools which accept more paying txs.
Yes, it's a theory, but this theory is based on knowing human nature, and human nature has been the same for thousands of years, so it's safe to assume it'll stay the same for a while.

BTC miners aren't being greedy? Yeah, right Smiley They are into mining for a profit or for fun? Some are for fun, I am sure, but most are for profit. I don't want to blame miners here, please don't get me wrong. Users are as greedy as miners. I am just outlining what is most likely to happen next, based on what used to happen previously with other money systems that mankind had invented.

See, you just said it yourself, miners don't want to lose money. Current number of transactions is still too low compared to credit card transactions rates. Just wait for it to increase and you'll see what I mean.

If one miner will accept and process it at a loss, that miner will soon be out of business. Again, just common sense.
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November 21, 2013, 08:40:35 AM
 #164

Ok have fun with that.
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November 21, 2013, 04:23:15 PM
 #165

Wall Street Journal (Germany): From Litecoin to Freecoin

"Es ist kein Zeichen geistiger Gesundheit, gut angepasst an eine kranke Gesellschaft zu sein."
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November 21, 2013, 05:42:59 PM
 #166

Wall Street Journal (Germany): From Litecoin to Freecoin

translate pls?
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November 21, 2013, 05:49:32 PM
 #167

Bitcoins already take too long to transfer.
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November 21, 2013, 05:53:08 PM
 #168

Bitcoins already take too long to transfer.

Over the internet, the delay is usually fine, because it is quicker than any other way.

At point of sale transactions, other hard money alternatives are better suited.
Don't buy your cup of coffee with virtual bitcoin, use a 1/10 ozt silver piece bitcoin specie.
(coming soon)

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November 21, 2013, 06:47:03 PM
 #169

Bitcoins already take too long to transfer.

I've never had to wait more than 5 seconds. Did you report the problem to devs?

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November 21, 2013, 08:35:56 PM
 #170

There is no loss in confidence the volume in china on 3 exchanges is huge check it out, gox bitcoin volume is weak. The high has been 78 yuan (~USD 13) currently it is over 10USD
Only Goxes inability to function as a money exchange slowing the expansion in other parts outside of china and india.
What options have you got to trade on gox? Bitcoin with bitcoin and bitcoin with dirt (fiat).
Lots of people would give the left nut to be able to buy some litecoins on gox as long as they are so cheap. long term the price will be about a quarter of bitcoins price.
Darkside, russian equivalent of silkroad accepting LTC too now

https://www.okcoin.com/
https://www.fxbtc.com/s/ltc_cny
edit:http://www.btctrade.com/ltc/

Indian exchange dealing with bitcoin/litecoin (just opening)
https://buysellbitco.in/
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November 24, 2013, 02:30:26 PM
 #171

Physical point of sales do not wait for credit card confirmations. They don't wait for the bank to accept your check. They don't check the bills aren't fake.

(This isn't necessarily a good thing, there are some ways of fixing it etc.)

You are forgetting that CC and check also use ID and 3rd party verified?
With those, bitcoin point of sale will likely follow the same path.
However there is strong resistance to implementing them for many reasons.

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Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
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November 25, 2013, 02:33:14 PM
 #172

I hope litecoin holders do understand they're taking much more risks, and thus should watch their holdings very closely.

and yet the price of ltc just keeps going up. I think you are confusing your obsessive opinion (that there should only be one cryptocurrency) for fact. The price (fact) proves that most people disagree with you.
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November 25, 2013, 02:52:59 PM
 #173

and yet the price of ltc just keeps going up. I think you are confusing your obsessive opinion (that there should only be one cryptocurrency) for fact. The price (fact) proves that most people disagree with you.
Shocked Shocked Shocked
How strong is your delusion?
Unless you're playing the "let's look at only the last few weeks" trick, litecoin has been slowly going down.


How strong is YOUR delusion? I bought litecoins when they were 1/5 of a penny back in 2012 - I'd say they went up - A LOT.

The downtrend against bitcoin coincides with a lot more new scrypt coins taking market share from LTC. While BTC really only has Peercoin competing against it in SHA-256.

Quote
BTW my opinion isn't "there should be only one", but "there should be only one of a kind", and Litecoin fails to distinguish itself from Bitcoin, except in aspects it is actually worse.

Being mined on GPUs instead of ASICs is all the difference I need, and a lot of people agree.
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November 25, 2013, 02:55:52 PM
 #174

and yet the price of ltc just keeps going up. I think you are confusing your obsessive opinion (that there should only be one cryptocurrency) for fact. The price (fact) proves that most people disagree with you.
Shocked Shocked Shocked
How strong is your delusion?
Unless you're playing the "let's look at only the last few weeks" trick, litecoin has been slowly going down.

This statement is delusional: http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=1-year&resolution=day&pair=ltc-usd&market=btc-e

You do understand that it has to be compared to holding bitcoins, which are less likely to go to zero? (see the bolded part of my quote)
Litecoin has just as much as a chance to go to 0 as Bitcoin has.

BTW my opinion isn't "there should be only one", but "there should be only one of a kind", and Litecoin fails to distinguish itself from Bitcoin, except in aspects it is actually worse.
This statement is just that, your OPINION. It is obvious there are others that share a very different opinion of Litecoin, as can be seen in the market.

-------------------------

I like both Bitcoin and Litecoin and use both, but my honest opinion is that I prefer to use Litecoin for transactions because they are confirmed faster. BTC fanatics love to say this is also less secure than the same number of confirmations compared to a Bitcoin confirmation, which is technically true. However, after over a year using Litecoin I haven't once had any problems with the security of confirmations or been scammed in this way.

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November 25, 2013, 03:03:56 PM
 #175

From another thread. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

rpietila, would you also suggest this kind of plan for Litecoin (perhaps on a smaller scale right now)?

It is the standard plan for all kinds of high-risk events that can be reduced to either going up or crashing. For LTC it works exactly same way, you just need to do your homework to find the target value for LTC (or make the plan open-ended so that you always sell if it goes up more, and always hold some of the bag if it goes to zero).

I think LTC is overvalued at 0.01344, it does not offer anything compared to BTC, and it cannot be used anywhere. The whole community seems to consist of pump and dumpsters. I think the risk/reward is just not there compared to BTC.

- With Bitcoin (compared to fiat), you have (nearly) unlimited reward, compared to limited risk (all of your investment, but not more).

- With Litecoin (compared to Bitcoin), you have limited reward (small potential of a sustained LTC/BTC rate increase), compared to unlimited risk (much higher probability of going to zero, or orders of magnitude down).


I hope litecoin holders do understand they're taking much more risks, and thus should watch their holdings very closely.

we are not arguing about the nature of bitcoin being good or not, but the thing that you don't realize is that when Bitcoin gets mainstream its Blockchain will need some tweeking, we have been discussing the Block size limit for so long and all debates point to not increasing the Block size limit for a good reason, soon Bitcoin will be so valued that it would not make any sense sending $10 equal of bitcoins, more people will start making transactions, and many of them will make small ones. they will spam the blockchain with small transactions.

that being said, here where comes the litecoin part, I saw big attention lately around Litecoin from developers and entrepreneurs, hell even Bitpay was tweeting about the easiest way to buy Bitcoin and Litecoin, this attention wasn't brought just for fun or to scam people. think of the support that Litecoin offers to Bitcoin eco-system, How? follow me...

when Bitcoin price hits $1000 it will raise much faster, I don't know if you agree but most likely it will hit it and continue raising fast, people will start making really small transactions and I mean do allot of them, in 10 minutes (the average block target) the network will get really spammed.

Litecoin will be Ideal, 4x blocks in 10 minutes can release some unnecessary load on the bitcoin blockchain, $10,20,30,40,100 is not that problem now but it will be in the future and Litecoin will solve it, now you can argue about why Litecoin why not "put your desired coin" ? well I can answer this really easy, Litecoin is the most secure Alt and one of the few without Insta-mine or Pre-mine and maybe the only Alt with really active development which its developers also help developing Bitcoin, and the most accepted alt, and at this point there is no chance for existing alts to compete with its network or technology, everything I saw was a bad copy cat that they cant maintain.


most important, I will re-post this here, this analyses was over the weekend, and Chinese exchanges were excluded for some reason, but yet it is interesting to watch.


someone on the Wall Observer BTC/USD thread mentioned that Bitcoin price at BTC-e is $100 shorter   comparing to Gox and Bitstamp, so I remembered that I once wanted to deposit some Fiat in order to try arbitrage between Bitstamp and BTC-e (buy at BTC-e and sell at stamp), the surprising thing was that they acquire so much fee and they ask you to mark the deposit as it was meant for advertisement.... when I calculated what I would make of it I found out at the time it would cost me more to buy Bitcoins at BTC-e than at Bitstamp ( price was only $30 shorter than Bitstamp).


the point is that I was checking again, and the BTC-e Bitcoin order book was so small, so I made some research and I was amazed:


BTC-e Volume the last 24 hours combined on all pairs (alts) Is almost equal to Gox and stamp together:





Litecoin Trading Volume is the biggest and most surprising that Today comparing to the last few days is really small





so based on these charts I went and looked for transactions on both networks and again I was amazed when I looked to the last 24 hours Transactions, compare these charts

Litecoin




Bitcoin







now I believe that Strong Alts such Litecoin are really necessary for the long Term health of the eco-system, and even when I start thinking about the block size limit, we would not like to spam Bitcoin with worthless transaction when it goes more mainstream, as Litecoin can handle 4 blocks in 10 minutes it would make more sense to use the smaller transaction with Litecoin and Keep the big ones for Bitcoin.











  
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November 25, 2013, 03:05:06 PM
 #176

And I get two butthurt replies about... LTC/USD, not LTC/BTC.
Keep being dumb!

You sir look to be the one thats butt hurt. The reason why Bitcoin is going up faster in value is simply because of the "network effect". It has nothing to do with whether it is better or worse than Bitcoin.

Litecoin has just as much as a chance to go to 0 as Bitcoin has.
You can't possibly be serious. Do you think there's an actual possibility of a Bitcoin fork to be worth more than Bitcoin itself?

Yes, it is certainly a possibility, not an impossibility like you imply. If a vulnerability is found in SHA256, perhaps a Scrypt coin would become more valuable than Bitcoin because it is likely to crash in this scenario. There are a few other scenarios where I could see this happening as well, perhaps due to constricting government regulation of Bitcoin, implementation of black lists, etc.

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November 25, 2013, 03:38:54 PM
 #177

If a vulnerability is found in sha256:
- the world collapses - seriously. much more than Bitcoin is at stake.
Yes I know this, but to say it is an impossibility is silly.

- bitcoin devs switch to a new PoW.

By the way, it's double SHA256.
It's not as easy to switch to a new PoW as you make it seem. First of all, all ASICs would be paperweights and the network would be very vulnerable to attack during the switch. Before they could get it switched, the devs would need to fix the code, users would need to download new clients and obtain majority, miners would have to get their old GPU rigs back up and running (if they still own them) and/or configure them for Bitcoin mining instead of scrypt. Simply switching to a new PoW would not neccessarily be the white knight bullet proof back up plan you seem to think it might be.

The reason it is less likely to go to zero than Litecoin is exactly what you just mentioned, the "network effect". Litecoin is offering nothing compelling to compromise on that network effect.
Again, this is just your opinion.

Blacklists and blockchain surveillance are are extremely easy to do, and can be retroactive too. Given that altcoins have even less activity and mixing services or tools readily available, they are more vulnerable. It is true, however, than an altcoin implementing a working version of ZeroCoin or any similar idea could fix it.
If it's so easy to do, then why don't you get a contract with the government and go for it? To setup a black list is actually very complicated. There are many ways one could launder BTC to make it untraceable. Including exchanging for another crypto currency then back to Bitcoin. Or selling Bitcoin via localbitcoins and then buying clean Bitcoins with cash. I'm not sure how you would track this, but according to you it is easy so I will await your reply.

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November 25, 2013, 03:50:20 PM
 #178


"Es ist kein Zeichen geistiger Gesundheit, gut angepasst an eine kranke Gesellschaft zu sein."
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November 25, 2013, 03:59:32 PM
 #179

Eh, I've got to get to work. I'll respond later.

Just so everyone knows, Pankkake runs this service: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=240677.0

Roll Eyes

There's no way to tell if he's being paid for his services at this very moment, but it is certainly a possibility.

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November 25, 2013, 11:53:00 PM
 #180

There is some confidence booster.
Litecoin on Businessinsider
New high ($11.56) and still cheap.
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