Bitcoin Forum
December 03, 2016, 01:44:57 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Alternative Indications of Price Trends  (Read 3187 times)
GoWest
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 543


betwithbtc.com


View Profile WWW
July 24, 2011, 02:36:58 PM
 #1


June 1st was the beginning of the run from approximately $8 to $30 which took place over eight days.



Member sign-ups on this forum have fallen to the level they were at around May 12th, so we can say that interest in Bitcoin is currently around mid-May levels.  Member sign-ups actually rose to the high two-hundreds and above four hundred on May 31st (not shown) before the big price increase to $30, so we should expect to see a comparable rise before the next big up trend.



Google Insights for Search indicates that current interest in Bitcoin continues to slump and is around the May 15th level.  You could also say that we're at the May 28th level, but based on the number of forum signups we're seeing right now, interest seems to be more in line with what we were seeing back in the middle of May.



I would conclude, therefore, that an immediate spike over the next few days is highly unlikely (unless one of the big online players suddenly announces that they're accepting Bitcoin), and that we probably have two more weeks of consolidation left before the next big price increase, which could take us to the mid-40 range sometime around August 8th.  Don't expect a straight line up either, it will probably be a bumpy ride through the 20's as we grapple with several levels of yet-to-be challenged resistance from early to mid June.


1480772697
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480772697

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480772697
Reply with quote  #2

1480772697
Report to moderator
1480772697
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480772697

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480772697
Reply with quote  #2

1480772697
Report to moderator
1480772697
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480772697

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480772697
Reply with quote  #2

1480772697
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1480772697
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480772697

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480772697
Reply with quote  #2

1480772697
Report to moderator
1480772697
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480772697

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480772697
Reply with quote  #2

1480772697
Report to moderator
afro25
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 123


View Profile
July 24, 2011, 11:28:02 PM
 #2

So, to sum it up into three words....

Buy, Buy, Buy!


Right?
I wish i had some more money i could invest lol.

nmat
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 602


View Profile
July 24, 2011, 11:56:43 PM
 #3

So, to sum it up into three words....

Buy, Buy, Buy!


Right?

Not really. I think it was more like: nothing is really happening right now so let's wait and see.
Smalleyster
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 70


I yam what I yam. - Popeye


View Profile WWW
July 24, 2011, 11:59:18 PM
 #4

Very interesting analysis, thank you!

Feel like investing in a Miner?:
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=30044.msg377773#msg377773
A soup to nuts newbee system for a secure, portable USB wallet (free instructions):
NoobHowTo: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=27088.msg341387#msg341387
afro25
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 123


View Profile
July 25, 2011, 12:12:01 AM
 #5

So, to sum it up into three words....

Buy, Buy, Buy!


Right?

Not really. I think it was more like: nothing is really happening right now so let's wait and see.

He talks about a potential price increase to $40+ around August 8th...

netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
July 25, 2011, 03:14:53 AM
 #6

Thanks for sharing the forum registration (and google) trends. However, your conclusion rests on the premise that new liquidity comes from new members. This may be correct, and certainly new blood would help, but it does not logically follow from the trends.

As a falsifying case, because of the recent collapse and plateau I no longer suggest that ignorant friends buy bitcoin. Indeed one friend sold his positions and despite my arguments does not intend to buy again until prices increase. None the less, I am buying modestly.

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
error
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 574



View Profile
July 25, 2011, 03:27:22 AM
 #7

Thanks for sharing the forum registration (and google) trends. However, your conclusion rests on the premise that new liquidity comes from new members. This may be correct, and certainly new blood would help, but it does not logically follow from the trends.

As a falsifying case, because of the recent collapse and plateau I no longer suggest that ignorant friends buy bitcoin. Indeed one friend sold his positions and despite my arguments does not intend to buy again until prices increase. None the less, I am buying modestly.

I hope you didn't advise him to follow the "buy high, sell low" strategy!

15UFyv6kfWgq83Pp3yhXPr8rknv9m6581W
netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
July 25, 2011, 04:33:07 AM
 #8

Thanks for sharing the forum registration (and google) trends. However, your conclusion rests on the premise that new liquidity comes from new members. This may be correct, and certainly new blood would help, but it does not logically follow from the trends.

As a falsifying case, because of the recent collapse and plateau I no longer suggest that ignorant friends buy bitcoin. Indeed one friend sold his positions and despite my arguments does not intend to buy again until prices increase. None the less, I am buying modestly.

I hope you didn't advise him to follow the "buy high, sell low" strategy!

In effect $17-$14, but I tried to argue "...if I may say, history
has shown bitcoin/dollar cycles of steady plateau, slight declines
before surging up, overshooting, and steady again at new plateaus in
roughly 2-3 month time series. Buying high and selling low is not a
winning strategy on a volatile asset. Despite Mt. Gox getting hacked a
few weeks ago (unfortunately just before your buy in), we're..."

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
GoWest
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 543


betwithbtc.com


View Profile WWW
July 25, 2011, 04:33:55 AM
 #9

Thanks for sharing the forum registration (and google) trends. However, your conclusion rests on the premise that new liquidity comes from new members. This may be correct, and certainly new blood would help, but it does not logically follow from the trends.

As a falsifying case, because of the recent collapse and plateau I no longer suggest that ignorant friends buy bitcoin. Indeed one friend sold his positions and despite my arguments does not intend to buy again until prices increase. None the less, I am buying modestly.

I hope you didn't advise him to follow the "buy high, sell low" strategy!

I bought at 25, 23, 20, 18, 16, 15, 14, 13.... each time with more money.  Looks like I finally caught the dagger!!


Bitcoin Swami
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168


View Profile
July 25, 2011, 04:35:24 AM
 #10

I've never heard the buying high selling low strategy.. seems like that isn't very smart?
SlipperySlope
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 686

Stephen Reed


View Profile
July 25, 2011, 03:39:51 PM
 #11

It may be that the proposed indicators are not predictive, but rather coincident or lagging.  If the rally of the past couple of days persists, it will be interesting to align the turning points of the proposed alternative indicator data series with the bitcoin price series to see whether the rally was indeed predicted, or perhaps merely confirmed.

I put more stake in the indicators that track active bitcoin wallet nodes and transaction bitcoin-days, as proposed elsewhere.
error
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 574



View Profile
July 26, 2011, 04:17:38 PM
 #12

I've never heard the buying high selling low strategy.. seems like that isn't very smart?

It's not, but that doesn't stop people from doing it. In fact, somewhere close to half (give or take) of the people trading Bitcoins do it.

15UFyv6kfWgq83Pp3yhXPr8rknv9m6581W
spruce
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 140


View Profile
July 26, 2011, 04:20:13 PM
 #13

I've never heard the buying high selling low strategy.. seems like that isn't very smart?

It's not, but that doesn't stop people from doing it. In fact, somewhere close to half (give or take) of the people trading Bitcoins do it.

Not necessarily. You may find there are a bunch of people who bought high and haven't sold (like me), and a bunch who mined long ago who "sold low," where it would be low for me but not for them.
GoWest
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 543


betwithbtc.com


View Profile WWW
July 26, 2011, 11:20:59 PM
 #14

Just a quick note that today we hit a one-week high for new member registrations on this forum. 

Yesterday, Google Insights for Search reported high interest from France - it was the first time I've seen France on the top 10 list.

The overall global search popularity still remains low compared to the last two months.

I will keep an eye on the stats and continue to report in this thread.


spruce
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 140


View Profile
July 27, 2011, 09:10:31 AM
 #15


I will keep an eye on the stats and continue to report in this thread.


Thank you. It will be interesting to see how your theory pans out. 
GoWest
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 543


betwithbtc.com


View Profile WWW
July 29, 2011, 04:43:07 AM
 #16

Yesterday, July 28th, there were only 142 registrations, which is the lowest since May 15th, two-and-a-half months ago. 

Assuming this is one of the leading indicators, as I'm postulating, then we're going to be headed lower in the near term.

Tronlet
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 224



View Profile
July 29, 2011, 03:19:41 PM
 #17

I've never heard the buying high selling low strategy.. seems like that isn't very smart?

It's not, but that doesn't stop people from doing it. In fact, somewhere close to half (give or take) of the people trading Bitcoins do it.

Are you serious? How do you know this and why on earth do they do this, as a charitable service to the rest of us? Cheesy

error
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 574



View Profile
July 29, 2011, 06:32:19 PM
 #18

I've never heard the buying high selling low strategy.. seems like that isn't very smart?

It's not, but that doesn't stop people from doing it. In fact, somewhere close to half (give or take) of the people trading Bitcoins do it.

Are you serious? How do you know this and why on earth do they do this, as a charitable service to the rest of us? Cheesy

Remember, you can only buy what someone else is selling, and only sell when someone else is buying. It takes two to tango. Cheesy

15UFyv6kfWgq83Pp3yhXPr8rknv9m6581W
Tronlet
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 224



View Profile
July 29, 2011, 07:16:54 PM
 #19

I've never heard the buying high selling low strategy.. seems like that isn't very smart?

It's not, but that doesn't stop people from doing it. In fact, somewhere close to half (give or take) of the people trading Bitcoins do it.

Are you serious? How do you know this and why on earth do they do this, as a charitable service to the rest of us? Cheesy

Remember, you can only buy what someone else is selling, and only sell when someone else is buying. It takes two to tango. Cheesy

Ah, excellent point. I was a bit distracted in my previous post. In the end no one wins or loses overall except the exchanges, since the money someone earns was lost by someone else, of course.

GoWest
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 543


betwithbtc.com


View Profile WWW
July 29, 2011, 11:43:44 PM
 #20

24hr volume on MtGox is currently at 7439BTC - I have never seen it so low.  Also it looks like today's registration count on the forum is going to be in the 120s, even lower than yesterday.

To put it succinctly, we are in a major lull.  Volume has essentially dried up, and new interest in Bitcoin has waned significantly.

The question is, are we at a trough in the trend or are we headed lower?

My recommendation would be to continue accumulating at this level.  On a daily basis, we're seeing breakthroughs in accessibility and easy of use.  The "green address" approach that was introduced today effectively eliminates transaction delays altogether - that's huge.

Additionally, on a recent Bitcoin Show, the CEO of CampBX mentioned that they're in negotiations to allow for credit-card purchases of Bitcoins, which would be another huge breakthrough, opening the market to a whole other demographic.

I would not be surprised to see other announcements in the coming weeks which will re-invigorate interest in Bitcoin - resulting in a large increase in Bitcoin value.

Until then, we trudge along...

Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!