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Author Topic: Any ASIC worth for Investment?  (Read 3817 times)
eZc
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October 18, 2013, 06:24:07 PM
 #1

Hi
Is there any ASIC out there worh as an Investment?

I was thinking about buying a KNC miner. When I assume the delivery in mind-end Nov this device gets obsolete in End of feb when Black Arrow Prospero X-3 arrives. So I expect a yield of 2000USD in this period. Manybe you get 500-1000 USD afterwards. So when I buy I would probably get a loss of 2000USD+
This scenario repeats and repeats; just look at the amount of avelon miner which will never get they're return.
WHY? Cuz the Investment in ASIC is currently stupid! Just do the math:

A 12 inch 28nm Waver costs around 2-3 k USD in production. However is sold from the fab for 10k (high quantitys).

So a typical Waver would be:
2.4 GH/s / mm2 at 28nm a 12inch Waver has 70000 mm^2 = 170TH

yield is not 100%-> 150TH

so the price would be 6 cents/GH!!!!!

Of course everithing has to be tested and packed and this produces significant costs. The R&D+initial production cost must be covered as well as PCB and PSU, MCU etc....
So lets say production costs are 30 cent/GH. Best offer ATM 1.5 USD/GH. There is huge potential in cost reduction, and this will probably also happen from generation to generation of asic's making the old ones obsolete before they returned the investment. This will happen over and over again until prices reached very close to production prices (when will this be??). Until then its better to invest in directly in bitcoin than in mining.

PS: I'm not blaming any ASIC company for ripping customers off. They probably have higher production prices, this just shows how low it can and probably will go in pricing.
So to me an investment in any offered ASIC seems completely nonsense. How do you see this?
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October 18, 2013, 06:38:50 PM
 #2

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October 18, 2013, 09:21:24 PM
 #3

Sure Cex.io is worth it (My knowledge so this is a referral link)

Gator-hex
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October 18, 2013, 09:41:27 PM
 #4

Eventually you reach the limits of thermodynamics then you buy because they won't be anything faster coming out later.

22 nm — 2012
14 nm — 2013
10 nm — est. 2015
7 nm — est. 2017
5 nm — est. 2019

Not sure how many bitcoins will be left by 2019 though? 21m - 17m (2019 est.) =  4m? Wink

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October 19, 2013, 03:44:56 AM
 #5

avalon 60Ghash for 6BTC = $900 = £570

i ordered it wednesday night and got my tracking number today (friday night/saturday morning) so i expect it to arrive on wednesday. from estimates

hardware breakeven = 36 days Cheesy cha ching

I DO NOT TRADE OR ACT AS ESCROW ON THIS FORUM EVER.
Don't take any information given on this forum on face value. Please do your own due diligence & respect what is written here as both opinion & information gleaned from experience. If you wish to seek legal FACTUAL advice, then seek the guidance of a LEGAL specialist.
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October 19, 2013, 07:05:17 AM
 #6

Eventually you reach the limits of thermodynamics then you buy because they won't be anything faster coming out later.

22 nm — 2012
14 nm — 2013
10 nm — est. 2015
7 nm — est. 2017
5 nm — est. 2019

Not sure how many bitcoins will be left by 2019 though? 21m - 17m (2019 est.) =  4m? Wink
Have you forgotten the halvings or is this just me..

Have you forgotten how technology works or is it just me.

Intel and the big computer companies are just barely beginning to scratch 20 nm in marketable products, their R&D are working on 14 nm.  If billion dollar companies/industries take this long to drop nm's, what makes you think bitcoin mining hardware is just going to sail through them?

We'll be at 28 nm for 5 years at least.
eZc
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October 19, 2013, 10:32:08 AM
 #7

Eventually you reach the limits of thermodynamics then you buy because they won't be anything faster coming out later.

22 nm — 2012
14 nm — 2013
10 nm — est. 2015
7 nm — est. 2017
5 nm — est. 2019

Not sure how many bitcoins will be left by 2019 though? 21m - 17m (2019 est.) =  4m? Wink
Have you forgotten the halvings or is this just me..

Have you forgotten how technology works or is it just me.

Intel and the big computer companies are just barely beginning to scratch 20 nm in marketable products, their R&D are working on 14 nm.  If billion dollar companies/industries take this long to drop nm's, what makes you think bitcoin mining hardware is just going to sail through them?

We'll be at 28 nm for 5 years at least.

Well the problem is, that process shrinking does no more shrink the relative transistor costs in the amount we have seen a few years ago. If its no more possible to shrink the relative costs of a transistor this would mean the end of moors law. Thats why the whole industry is in panic: See this famous NVIDIA flame for ex: http://www.extremetech.com/computing/123529-nvidia-deeply-unhappy-with-tsmc-claims-22nm-essentially-worthless

However this freeze are basically good news for miners. Since it would mean a halt in cost saving advancements, and makes they're mining gear longer profitable operational. The only problem is, that the current products are highly overpriced and there is a huge cost saving potential.
eZc
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October 19, 2013, 10:51:55 AM
 #8

avalon 60Ghash for 6BTC = $900 = £570

i ordered it wednesday night and got my tracking number today (friday night/saturday morning) so i expect it to arrive on wednesday. from estimates

hardware breakeven = 36 days Cheesy cha ching

Good luck with that! You get 0.0878 BTC a day. In begining. Diff inc 40% each time... so do the math. So even when diff would not increase you would use 68 days for HW break even. When you consider diff and elec you probably never get your 6 BTC back.... -> fail investment
eZc
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October 19, 2013, 10:55:45 AM
 #9

Sure Cex.io is worth it (My knowledge so this is a referral link)

Well it seems to me like a GH/S exchange. But i don't understand how long you get this GH/s when you buy. However Price per GH is even higher as with Avalon.
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October 19, 2013, 01:45:14 PM
 #10

avalon 60Ghash for 6BTC = $900 = £570

i ordered it wednesday night and got my tracking number today (friday night/saturday morning) so i expect it to arrive on wednesday. from estimates

hardware breakeven = 36 days Cheesy cha ching

Good luck with that! You get 0.0878 BTC a day. In begining. Diff inc 40% each time... so do the math. So even when diff would not increase you would use 68 days for HW break even. When you consider diff and elec you probably never get your 6 BTC back.... -> fail investment

such a noob response.. if only you knew lol,

ill be getting more then that, but goodluck with your calculations

I DO NOT TRADE OR ACT AS ESCROW ON THIS FORUM EVER.
Don't take any information given on this forum on face value. Please do your own due diligence & respect what is written here as both opinion & information gleaned from experience. If you wish to seek legal FACTUAL advice, then seek the guidance of a LEGAL specialist.
eZc
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October 19, 2013, 02:09:08 PM
 #11

avalon 60Ghash for 6BTC = $900 = £570

i ordered it wednesday night and got my tracking number today (friday night/saturday morning) so i expect it to arrive on wednesday. from estimates

hardware breakeven = 36 days Cheesy cha ching

Good luck with that! You get 0.0878 BTC a day. In begining. Diff inc 40% each time... so do the math. So even when diff would not increase you would use 68 days for HW break even. When you consider diff and elec you probably never get your 6 BTC back.... -> fail investment

such a noob response.. if only you knew lol,

ill be getting more then that, but goodluck with your calculations

Huh?
When the gear arrives the diff will be (or very soon be) 345158085 (next est.). So with 60GH/s you're getting 0.0874 BTC/day. 

1. Why was my response noob?
2. Well you're getting probably less than that not more since there are pool fees etc (go to allchains if you don't believe).
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October 19, 2013, 02:40:11 PM
 #12

My personal recommendation is, Do not direct contact with ASIC unless you intended to obtain at least 20Th/s. Use cex.io or cloudhashing first.

To start,

You will need to wait not more than 72 hours if you new to use the virwox way (Linden to bitcoin, which is my case due to AML issues), Which is still a reasonable way as this is known as golden hours.

Secondly, Use coinbox.me while you wait. You will see the effects immediately once you receive the bitcoin bought from virwox and the coinbox.me I personally use this to remove transfer errors as No one wants to wait more than 10 seconds if in small sum (Bigger sum like 1 grand, may be worth to wait)

Why pryamining is discouragement? You deposit, You need to wait more than 24 hours before adding up. I personally not to use this on early stage in order to chop.





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October 19, 2013, 08:10:58 PM
 #13

avalon 60Ghash for 6BTC = $900 = £570

i ordered it wednesday night and got my tracking number today (friday night/saturday morning) so i expect it to arrive on wednesday. from estimates

hardware breakeven = 36 days Cheesy cha ching

Good luck with that! You get 0.0878 BTC a day. In begining. Diff inc 40% each time... so do the math. So even when diff would not increase you would use 68 days for HW break even. When you consider diff and elec you probably never get your 6 BTC back.... -> fail investment

Nah, he's golden.  0.1 BTC/gigahash was an excellent buy.  He may be one of the few late buyers that makes ROI Tongue
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October 20, 2013, 12:25:39 AM
 #14

avalon 60Ghash for 6BTC = $900 = £570

i ordered it wednesday night and got my tracking number today (friday night/saturday morning) so i expect it to arrive on wednesday. from estimates

hardware breakeven = 36 days Cheesy cha ching

Good luck with that! You get 0.0878 BTC a day. In begining. Diff inc 40% each time... so do the math. So even when diff would not increase you would use 68 days for HW break even. When you consider diff and elec you probably never get your 6 BTC back.... -> fail investment

such a noob response.. if only you knew lol,

ill be getting more then that, but goodluck with your calculations

n00b response? hardly, eZc is not wrong.

where are your calculations that show a 36 day roi? i'd love to see them. please dont use http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ its maths wrong. just to begin with profitabilty decline of .61 per year? 61% per year?!? its droping by 30% per 10 days... http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

try this http://www.bitreturn.com/ put in your avalon that draws 650W for 65gh/s and change the network growth rate to 82% per month which is what it has been over the last 8 changes in difficulty. Then tell us all how delicious humble pie tastes.. yummy... pie...

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October 20, 2013, 02:26:03 AM
 #15

My personal recommendation is, Do not direct contact with ASIC unless you intended to obtain at least 20Th/s. Use cex.io or cloudhashing first.

 I was just thinking about this with respect to cex.io; mine there, and reinvest the mined BTC into more GHs for a while and see how that works out for a few weeks...

 I'm hesitant to leave BTCGuild though. Great pool IMO.

 Also, mining difficulty 512 shares with Erupter USB's @ ghash.io gives me indigestion.
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October 20, 2013, 06:19:50 AM
 #16

avalon 60Ghash for 6BTC = $900 = £570

i ordered it wednesday night and got my tracking number today (friday night/saturday morning) so i expect it to arrive on wednesday. from estimates

hardware breakeven = 36 days Cheesy cha ching

Good luck with that! You get 0.0878 BTC a day. In begining. Diff inc 40% each time... so do the math. So even when diff would not increase you would use 68 days for HW break even. When you consider diff and elec you probably never get your 6 BTC back.... -> fail investment

such a noob response.. if only you knew lol,

ill be getting more then that, but goodluck with your calculations

funny because i am hashing at that rate right now and i can tell you that you wont be earning it back in just 36 days.
/facepalm

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October 20, 2013, 08:11:22 AM
 #17

no,

why price it at a range that may be profitable (for the consumer) when you can just mine with it yourself

but you can price gouge

Feel free to join my G2A Goldmine Pyramid Scheme Team, or possibly even buy a Steam game from there.  Maybe. ------- Dacentec Dedicated Servers (Lenoir, NC, USA) from $25/mo & Time4VPS Storage VPS' (Vilnius, Lithuania) from €18/qtr & Hetzner's serverbidding, from ~€20/mo -- had bitcoin nodes & p2pool (dacentec, hetzner) for several years on these.  Only two are affiliate links too, kek!
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October 20, 2013, 10:02:26 AM
 #18

None of them. Buy and hold bitcoins














 

 

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rograz
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October 20, 2013, 02:48:23 PM
 #19

avalon 60Ghash for 6BTC = $900 = £570

Questionable, had you gotten them from the Tradehill auction on the other hand they would be profitable. Captain hindsight has been taunting me the last few days about that, 2.21 btc/unit with free shipping like wtf Sad
eZc
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October 20, 2013, 02:57:51 PM
 #20

None of them. Buy and hold bitcoins

Yes it seems to be the best option atm. The only way to make profit atm with mining is to get a good BTC/GH miner instant on ebay or so ant then instantaneously sell all hash power on cex.io. However it could be risky since affaik you are obligated to offer this hashrate forever. However its likely that you can buyback the hashpower almost free in a few months. So you have the profit of the beginning margin - the elec costs - buyback costs = which is most likely profitable...

Else I didn't find anything which seems to be profitable. Please inform me when you find a way, since I really wanna make profit with mining :-)
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