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Author Topic: BTCChina/Bitstamp discreptency  (Read 2394 times)
dree12
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October 19, 2013, 03:51:22 AM
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It has just occurred to me that the current BTCChina price (974 CNY = 160 USD) is almost $6 higher than the current Bitstamp price (154 USD). This discrepancy isn't sustainable, of course. The two exchanges have been of similar size recently, so which exchange is going to yield? Maybe they will meet in the middle?
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October 19, 2013, 03:53:52 AM
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Great observation, thanks very much!
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October 19, 2013, 03:57:22 AM
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But how do you get fiat out of BTCChina?
dree12
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October 19, 2013, 03:57:54 AM
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But how do you get fiat out of BTCChina?

They only charge a 0.5% fee and it's virtually instant. It's not the same situation as with Mt. Gox.
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October 19, 2013, 04:20:25 AM
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Wow, this is actually a really good arb opportunity for someone in China. BTCChina's withdraws are ultra-fast.

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October 19, 2013, 05:11:55 AM
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Seems pretty obvious to me that the same pressures which are driving desperate sellers off of Mt. Gox are driving them on to Bitstamp.  So the artificial spot inflation at Mt. Gox kind of implies an artificial spot deflation at Bitstamp.  I wouldn't expect things to last indefinitely (if either or both exchanges survive at all), and some people are already complaining about Bitstamp starting to 'gox'.  I never had an inclination to use them so I wouldn't know.

BTCChina looks to me like the most 'natural' market.  Some Chinese have been saying that it's not a problem to deal with fiat there.  Whenever I check, it seems to be the case that BTCChina is about in the middle of Mt. Gox and Bitstamp.  That would lend some strength to my argument about equal (or at least related) and opposite artificial forces impacting the two Western exchanges.


Zangelbert Bingledack
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October 19, 2013, 06:20:16 AM
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BTCChina looks to me like the most 'natural' market.  Some Chinese have been saying that it's not a problem to deal with fiat there.  Whenever I check, it seems to be the case that BTCChina is about in the middle of Mt. Gox and Bitstamp.  That would lend some strength to my argument about equal (or at least related) and opposite artificial forces impacting the two Western exchanges.

That makes a lot of sense. If Gox is inflated, somewhere else has to be deflated to compensate.
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October 19, 2013, 04:30:50 PM
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some people are already complaining about Bitstamp starting to 'gox'.
Nope, that was just some whiners complaining because they had to submit proof of residence.

Their only valid point was that Bitstamp didn't send an email to warn about that, though apparently they warned about it in their site 1 month in advance.

Or you have found reports of actual wires not going through for other reasons?

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October 19, 2013, 05:32:47 PM
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some people are already complaining about Bitstamp starting to 'gox'.
Nope, that was just some whiners complaining because they had to submit proof of residence.

Their only valid point was that Bitstamp didn't send an email to warn about that, though apparently they warned about it in their site 1 month in advance.

Or you have found reports of actual wires not going through for other reasons?

Seems like there have been a variety of complaints about general suckage, and I think that to 'gox' means to suck in a variety of ways...not just whatever Mt. Gox's primarly current failure mode might be.

Now, it is well worth note that in the case of Bitstamp and almost every other business, one needs to look for a pattern of complaints, or from complete information from a reputable complainer in order to gauge the level of 'goxage'.  Over the years that I've been watching, Mt. Gox has fucked with people who in some cases probably do kind of deserve it.  I will not look down on an action which interferes with a criminal's activities, particularly if the activities involve use of the companies services.

It should be noted that sometimes the attempted harassment by companies is misplaced.  Like when Mt. Gox tried their hand at taint analysis and started locking up people's coins who were completely innocent.  My own BTC (which passed through Tradehill) would have been impacted had I been using Mt. Gox at the time.  To Mt. Gox's credit, they understood and remedied the problem quickly in that case.

Secondary observations can also be of value.  If Bitstamp has achieved a high 'Gox Index', the downward pressure on their spot price would subside.  Of course these sorts of things are only observable with a lag time though.


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October 19, 2013, 06:41:12 PM
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and I think that to 'gox' means to suck in a variety of ways...not just whatever Mt. Gox's primarly current failure mode might be.

Now, it is well worth note that in the case of Bitstamp and almost every other business, one needs to look for a pattern of complaints, or from complete information from a reputable complainer in order to gauge the level of 'goxage'.
I agree.

Seems like there have been a variety of complaints about general suckage,
Didn't notice.

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theonewhowaskazu
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October 19, 2013, 06:47:03 PM
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some people are already complaining about Bitstamp starting to 'gox'.
Nope, that was just some whiners complaining because they had to submit proof of residence.

Their only valid point was that Bitstamp didn't send an email to warn about that, though apparently they warned about it in their site 1 month in advance.

Or you have found reports of actual wires not going through for other reasons?

Seems like there have been a variety of complaints about general suckage, and I think that to 'gox' means to suck in a variety of ways...not just whatever Mt. Gox's primarly current failure mode might be.

Now, it is well worth note that in the case of Bitstamp and almost every other business, one needs to look for a pattern of complaints, or from complete information from a reputable complainer in order to gauge the level of 'goxage'.  Over the years that I've been watching, Mt. Gox has fucked with people who in some cases probably do kind of deserve it.  I will not look down on an action which interferes with a criminal's activities, particularly if the activities involve use of the companies services.

It should be noted that sometimes the attempted harassment by companies is misplaced.  Like when Mt. Gox tried their hand at taint analysis and started locking up people's coins who were completely innocent.  My own BTC (which passed through Tradehill) would have been impacted had I been using Mt. Gox at the time.  To Mt. Gox's credit, they understood and remedied the problem quickly in that case.

Secondary observations can also be of value.  If Bitstamp has achieved a high 'Gox Index', the downward pressure on their spot price would subside.  Of course these sorts of things are only observable with a lag time though.



What if it was an inverse gox? For example, you'd agree that due to the original definition of 'goxage' equating to suckage in a variety of ways, then wouldn't, for example, making withdrawing BTC overly difficult equate to goxxage all the same, despite it having an inverse effect of the price? As such, the downward pressure on their spot price would not subside, it could potentially increase, despite an increased gox index.

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