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Author Topic: Explain the current BTC / USD trend.  (Read 2814 times)
pletharoe
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October 19, 2013, 05:43:26 AM
 #1

What is behind the current price trend for BTC?

I'm starting this thread just after the USA just avoided hitting the debt ceiling, which I guess was the reason for the rapid BTC price rise.  However now that they've dodged the bullet (at least for a couple of months), why is the price still rising?

Hopefully this thread will continue to run during further economic changes and people will be able to speculate on current trends.
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October 19, 2013, 05:51:46 AM
 #2

What is behind the current price trend for BTC?

I'm starting this thread just after the USA just avoided hitting the debt ceiling, which I guess was the reason for the rapid BTC price rise.  However now that they've dodged the bullet (at least for a couple of months), why is the price still rising?

Hopefully this thread will continue to run during further economic changes and people will be able to speculate on current trends.

They raised the debt limit and diluted the Dollars again. I heard there is also no real debt ceiling anymore and they can print at will until January. Even more dilution and hence devaluation.

Short term the price fluctuations of Bitcoin? Just like bitches, mr. Market be crazy! Grin
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October 19, 2013, 06:33:44 AM
 #3

People are speculating, Baidu started accepting btc and as wacht said, the USD is uncertain.
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October 19, 2013, 06:58:53 AM
 #4

I think a lot of people are thinking, "The FBI took down a huge drug marketplace, but they can't* confiscate the owner's millions?  What the hell is a bitcoin and where can I get some!?!"


*or so they want us to believe...

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October 19, 2013, 08:13:59 AM
 #5

15 big reasons for the October surprise:

  • China
  • Second Market Bitcoin Investment Trust delayed effect
  • SR had 100,000 users engaging in active commerce, proving Bitcoin is a very real medium of exchange
  • SR shutdown caused only a flash crash, proving the current price level is solid*
  • SR shutdown generated a lot of Bitcoin publicity, the trial guarantees more, plus feds have Bitcoin wallet
  • DPR's huge cold wallet is reportedly untouchable; off-shore account holders' ears are perking up
  • SR shutdown proved SR was not a critical part of the Bitcoin ecosystem, not even for price support (see above)
  • SR shutdown cleaned the image of Bitcoin up in many people's minds, even though others like it will sprout
  • Global financial market turmoil coming to a head; Jim Rogers: "this Fall is probably the beginning of the end"
  • US government shutdown silliness, people are worried and the US is showing serious signs of imminent meltdown
  • China-EU agreement to cut out USD in trade, a huge blow to USD reserve currency status - one of many
  • Ultra-loose Janet Yellen appointed as next Fed chief, QE to infinity!
  • 6 months since last bubble, dust settled, now finally clear to people that it was a legit price correction (upwards)
  • Talk of more Cyprus-style "haircuts" on depositors, taking the Keynesian "hoarding=bad!" to its logical endpoint
  • Last bubble was cut short by major failure at MtGox; those fiery embers may not have died but just kept smoldering

*Remember March 11? Slow orphan blocks, hard fork, double-spend --> FLASH CRASH --> price ultimately unaffected, proving in people's minds that the growth from January through March 11 wasn't just silly speculation and vapors but real support, so then people threw caution to the wind and piled in without reservation. Result: Price recovered fully, then proceeded to quintuple in less than a month.
tutkarz
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October 19, 2013, 08:21:32 AM
 #6

there is another thing, its just not enough bitcoins on the market anymore

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October 19, 2013, 08:28:57 AM
 #7

The difficulty has gone mental. Most people have been priced out of mining. Mining is really something for someone with deep pockets, and even then they are taking a large risk not just buying coins.

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October 19, 2013, 10:00:48 AM
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October 19, 2013, 10:30:23 AM
 #9

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303680404579142850162694282

Looking to review Bitcoin / Crypto mining Hardware.
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October 19, 2013, 10:40:03 AM
 #10

Market Cap Bitcoin = $2.2 Billion   Cool

$ 2,264,725,674 USD

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October 19, 2013, 10:51:25 AM
 #11

Where is the "im shorting because of this thread" post?

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
RationalSpeculator
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October 19, 2013, 10:53:20 AM
 #12

Price went up because demand is higher than supply.

All the rest is speculation at best, but mostly just rationalization.

Wish I sold less coins though. :/


Is it possible that demand becomes lower than supply? In the long run, years, unlikely, in the short run it is possible.

I have my hopes on the asic miners. I think it is likely that many of them did not liquidate their btc since most of them until now made huge profits. But I also don't think they reinvested these btc. ASICMINER comes to mind who mostly distributed the btc to stockholders if I am correct. Only part got liquidated for reinvestment and living expenses.

But what will happen when asic miners start to lose money? Can they just keep a big part of their mined btc like before? No, they must liquidate most of them to pay the bills. And if they run at a loss they must even liquidate their stash of btc they have build up.

Fingers crossed.
marcelus
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October 19, 2013, 11:16:14 AM
 #13

http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-internet-giant-baidu-starts-accepting-bitcoin/
geofflosophy
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October 19, 2013, 12:29:01 PM
 #14

I am a short term bear as of yesterday. I sold some coins at just under $150, and when the price kept going up I sold off some more at $166. I fully expect to be able to pick up more coins with the same dollar amount within the week around a $130 price floor. I have a hot wallet for sports betting and an investment in just-dice that I'm hanging onto for the moment as I'm still down, but with the speed at which this price shot up I have to believe that it will be at least tested over the next week before it stabilizes for the longer term, and I'm looking to cash in on this volatility.
geofflosophy
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October 19, 2013, 12:57:57 PM
 #15

I am a short term bear as of yesterday. I sold some coins at just under $150, and when the price kept going up I sold off some more at $166. I fully expect to be able to pick up more coins with the same dollar amount within the week around a $130 price floor. I have a hot wallet for sports betting and an investment in just-dice that I'm hanging onto for the moment as I'm still down, but with the speed at which this price shot up I have to believe that it will be at least tested over the next week before it stabilizes for the longer term, and I'm looking to cash in on this volatility.

Chances are you will surrender and pick em up somewhere around 1300$ and then still have decent gains on top of that.



I doubt it, but I've still got a bunch of coins that are currently illiquid so if the price keeps going up I'll still do alright for myself.
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October 19, 2013, 01:03:50 PM
 #16

15 big reasons for the October surprise:

  • China
  • Second Market Bitcoin Investment Trust delayed effect
  • SR had 100,000 users engaging in active commerce, proving Bitcoin is a very real medium of exchange
  • SR shutdown caused only a flash crash, proving the current price level is solid*
  • SR shutdown generated a lot of Bitcoin publicity, the trial guarantees more, plus feds have Bitcoin wallet
  • DPR's huge cold wallet is reportedly untouchable; off-shore account holders' ears are perking up
  • SR shutdown proved SR was not a critical part of the Bitcoin ecosystem, not even for price support (see above)
  • SR shutdown cleaned the image of Bitcoin up in many people's minds, even though others like it will sprout
  • Global financial market turmoil coming to a head; Jim Rogers: "this Fall is probably the beginning of the end"
  • US government shutdown silliness, people are worried and the US is showing serious signs of imminent meltdown
  • China-EU agreement to cut out USD in trade, a huge blow to USD reserve currency status - one of many
  • Ultra-loose Janet Yellen appointed as next Fed chief, QE to infinity!
  • 6 months since last bubble, dust settled, now finally clear to people that it was a legit price correction (upwards)
  • Talk of more Cyprus-style "haircuts" on depositors, taking the Keynesian "hoarding=bad!" to its logical endpoint
  • Last bubble was cut short by major failure at MtGox; those fiery embers may not have died but just kept smoldering

*Remember March 11? Slow orphan blocks, hard fork, double-spend --> FLASH CRASH --> price ultimately unaffected, proving in people's minds that the growth from January through March 11 wasn't just silly speculation and vapors but real support, so then people threw caution to the wind and piled in without reservation. Result: Price recovered fully, then proceeded to quintuple in less than a month.

+1

It doesn't take many noobs coming into a market this small to start driving the price up..

Media Attention/Publicity > New user/investors > Price goes up

Plenty of room for new investors..
notme
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October 19, 2013, 01:37:07 PM
 #17

Price went up because demand is higher than supply.

All the rest is speculation at best, but mostly just rationalization.

Wish I sold less coins though. :/


Is it possible that demand becomes lower than supply? In the long run, years, unlikely, in the short run it is possible.

I have my hopes on the asic miners. I think it is likely that many of them did not liquidate their btc since most of them until now made huge profits. But I also don't think they reinvested these btc. ASICMINER comes to mind who mostly distributed the btc to stockholders if I am correct. Only part got liquidated for reinvestment and living expenses.

But what will happen when asic miners start to lose money? Can they just keep a big part of their mined btc like before? No, they must liquidate most of them to pay the bills. And if they run at a loss they must even liquidate their stash of btc they have build up.

Fingers crossed.

WRT miners needing to pay costs, keep in mind that even with current difficulty and first gen ASICs, production is around 50x electric costs.  We have a ways to go before they need to sell a significant share to cover ongoing expenses.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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October 19, 2013, 02:38:55 PM
 #18

right now most of  people  bought around 100

in April most of them bought around 10

base on those I am  ready to believe that we will jump to something like 2000 ...

.. in true  I am almost ready to believe this, in reality  the  top will be much  lover

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RationalSpeculator
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!


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October 19, 2013, 02:40:09 PM
 #19

Price went up because demand is higher than supply.

All the rest is speculation at best, but mostly just rationalization.

Wish I sold less coins though. :/


Is it possible that demand becomes lower than supply? In the long run, years, unlikely, in the short run it is possible.

I have my hopes on the asic miners. I think it is likely that many of them did not liquidate their btc since most of them until now made huge profits. But I also don't think they reinvested these btc. ASICMINER comes to mind who mostly distributed the btc to stockholders if I am correct. Only part got liquidated for reinvestment and living expenses.

But what will happen when asic miners start to lose money? Can they just keep a big part of their mined btc like before? No, they must liquidate most of them to pay the bills. And if they run at a loss they must even liquidate their stash of btc they have build up.

Fingers crossed.

WRT miners needing to pay costs, keep in mind that even with current difficulty and first gen ASICs, production is around 50x electric costs.  We have a ways to go before they need to sell a significant share to cover ongoing expenses.

Thanks I wasn't aware. Anyway, supply from miners is fixed and negligible compared to coins traded on exchanges.

Demand/supply changes depends mainly on speculators.

There is a long term upward trend because more and more people want bitcoins causing demand to go up faster than supply.


Short term however there are large fluctuations depending on mainly what the bitcoin speculators do.

After a trend up and most speculators have bought what they wanted, there always comes a time when the trend is down until most speculators have sold what they wanted.

Where are we?    


I've seen speculators buy strongly from the low of $65 till $130, the short SR crash down to $85 was neutralised immediately, with the price currently at $165 it basically has been going up 3 months in a row now which is extended for most price trends in bitcoin. Looking at the long term growth rate, price is currently also above it. Trusting on reversion to the mean, the chance is considerably higher it will go down the coming months, rather than up.

Normally I would be selling coins today but not any longer because I sold half my stash already and the chance it will tenfold from here the coming months is still very small in my opinion but not as small as 6 months ago.

Buying more today is out of question for me though.  

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October 19, 2013, 03:59:34 PM
 #20

I guess when it hits 200 and continues to grow up, those with bids 50-120 will surrender and rush buying to amplify it into insane values.

That happened last spring and is happening now.

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