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Author Topic: When will October's bubble burst?  (Read 10873 times)
DoomDumas
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October 21, 2013, 01:53:51 PM
 #81

this isn't a bubble, but a permanent rise, this is the start of Bitcoin rise

Bought all in at 194 so prepare for a sharp and violent decline anytime from now and 20 minutes from now.

LOL. I feel ya' brother

i think i´m plagued by the same disease  Cry


exactly why I stop trading and become a buy and hold bitcoiner.. im very long in BTC, dont plan to sell more than 20% at 1000$ !
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October 21, 2013, 01:57:37 PM
 #82

I am sat biting my nails wondering whether to sell now and wipe out some £££ debt or whether to hold and see if it continues to rise. I remember being in this same situation earlier in the year with the last big rise and it burst just as I was about to pull the trigger...

Dude, think seriously. With debd you're on minus. It's better a thousand times to be at 0 and have nothing.

Debt the chain every man should struggle to break. Then you can go back gathering, hunting or whatever our ancestors did.

I hate debt.

As Robert Kiosaki says, theres good debt and bad debt.

If you go into debt to buy a new car or tv or something that is bad debt.
If you go into debt to buy investments which yield more than the interest on the debt, that is good debt

Sorry, but Bitcoin is still risky, don't tell someone he/she should get a loan to buy BTC. That's still verry stupid. Just buy BTC with money you are willing to loose...
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October 21, 2013, 01:59:06 PM
 #83

I love how easily everyone falls for psychological digit barriers and is unable to think in log scale.

The $32 bubble, well, price went up over 1000%. It crashed to below where it started. And after a while we recovered and now $32 is ancient history.
The $13-$266, well, price went up over 1000%. And we never even hit the start point during the crash! Heck, we stayed almost 400% above the start point at all times! And now, not even a year later, all but the folks who bought in at the very top are seeing gains. What a bubble.

Now we've gone up, what, 40% from pre-SR-news price... and everyone's convinced that this is the worst possible time to buy into the "bubble" and it must end soon... will pop as soon as it gets over $200..

It might end right after we cross $200. But then again, we may just see another 1000%. Don't underestimate the market (or overestimate, for that matter.) Remember when a whole bunch of people were convinced $29 was the top in early 2013... 
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October 21, 2013, 02:08:03 PM
 #84

I am sat biting my nails wondering whether to sell now and wipe out some £££ debt or whether to hold and see if it continues to rise. I remember being in this same situation earlier in the year with the last big rise and it burst just as I was about to pull the trigger...

Dude, think seriously. With debd you're on minus. It's better a thousand times to be at 0 and have nothing.

Debt the chain every man should struggle to break. Then you can go back gathering, hunting or whatever our ancestors did.

I hate debt.

As Robert Kiosaki says, theres good debt and bad debt.

If you go into debt to buy a new car or tv or something that is bad debt.
If you go into debt to buy investments which yield more than the interest on the debt, that is good debt

This debt is for a loan for home improvements, I had the choice of paying part of it off or investing it in BTC. So far the BTC investment is paying off nicely as I'm up about 100% at the moment Smiley Now I'm at the point where I could cash in and clear off that fiat debt, or hold and see if I can pay off that and a chunk of mortgage as I'm aiming to be mortgage free within 5 years, currently at 10 years left.
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October 21, 2013, 02:21:38 PM
 #85

You know Tesla? Great company, great products, but this can happen every day also to bitcoin:

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October 21, 2013, 02:51:57 PM
 #86

April:
7th - BTC rose $20
8th - BTC rose $24
9th - BTC rose $44
10th - CRASH!

October:
17th - BTC rose $6
18th - BTC rose $20
19th - Trading hasn't finished, but it's looking like another $20 day.

This rapid rise is accelerating at an unsustainable rate.  When will this bubble burst?

I expect we will see 100$ a day price increases  before we have another mid-term correction..



That's very optimistic, I like you're thinking if serious.

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October 21, 2013, 03:03:09 PM
 #87

Whenever we get near 200 its like the ghost of the flash crash is up there lurking and creating this panicky crash energy where a whole bunch of asks show up and bids are hit hard and deep. This is twice that gox and btce have dropped 15 in the bat of an eye (bit stamp 10). I fear its only going to going to get worse as we go higher. And this is without any whales even capitulating. How do you guys handle this with your nerves or get any sleep? I've tried shorting these movements a few times only to lose tiny fractions of my position and waste an entire weekend. But the one time I don't bother will probably be when the whales finally capitulate.
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October 21, 2013, 03:17:46 PM
 #88

Whenever we get near 200 its like the ghost of the flash crash is up there lurking and creating this panicky crash energy where a whole bunch of asks show up and bids are hit hard and deep. This is twice that gox and btce have dropped 15 in the bat of an eye (bit stamp 10). I fear its only going to going to get worse as we go higher. And this is without any whales even capitulating. How do you guys handle this with your nerves or get any sleep? I've tried shorting these movements a few times only to lose tiny fractions of my position and waste an entire weekend. But the one time I don't bother will probably be when the whales finally capitulate.

This market historically has seen around 1000% per year increase.  Do you really think you're a good enough trader to beat 1000% a year?

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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October 21, 2013, 03:21:08 PM
 #89

Whenever we get near 200 its like the ghost of the flash crash is up there lurking and creating this panicky crash energy where a whole bunch of asks show up and bids are hit hard and deep. This is twice that gox and btce have dropped 15 in the bat of an eye (bit stamp 10). I fear its only going to going to get worse as we go higher. And this is without any whales even capitulating. How do you guys handle this with your nerves or get any sleep? I've tried shorting these movements a few times only to lose tiny fractions of my position and waste an entire weekend. But the one time I don't bother will probably be when the whales finally capitulate.

There isnt enough depth to market sell. Unless something bad happens [not just "omg booobblee"], it shouldnt drop to sharply without a rebound.

I mean, 10k sell brings price down $20. 20k, $43; 30k, $60.

You'd need some real panic for people to sell in that kind of depth. If you see an ask wall, then panic Tongue

Whenever we get near 200 its like the ghost of the flash crash is up there lurking and creating this panicky crash energy where a whole bunch of asks show up and bids are hit hard and deep. This is twice that gox and btce have dropped 15 in the bat of an eye (bit stamp 10). I fear its only going to going to get worse as we go higher. And this is without any whales even capitulating. How do you guys handle this with your nerves or get any sleep? I've tried shorting these movements a few times only to lose tiny fractions of my position and waste an entire weekend. But the one time I don't bother will probably be when the whales finally capitulate.

This market historically has seen around 1000% per year increase.  Do you really think you're a good enough trader to beat 1000% a year?

Hm, no. But do I think bitcoin will grow 1000% a year? No.
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October 21, 2013, 03:24:27 PM
 #90

I took in the first stake I wanted and could afford to lose altogether.  There is no going in and out for me.  It's all the way to the top or bottom.  The more events Bitcoin survives, e.g. SR, and the longer it goes without serious flaws being detected the happier I am.  Eventually I will bring in my second stake.  One day I really should get around to buying something with Bitcoin.  Hmm, I know, I'll give them to my wife; she's much better at spending than I am.
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October 21, 2013, 03:58:38 PM
 #91

Whenever we get near 200 its like the ghost of the flash crash is up there lurking and creating this panicky crash energy where a whole bunch of asks show up and bids are hit hard and deep. This is twice that gox and btce have dropped 15 in the bat of an eye (bit stamp 10). I fear its only going to going to get worse as we go higher. And this is without any whales even capitulating. How do you guys handle this with your nerves or get any sleep? I've tried shorting these movements a few times only to lose tiny fractions of my position and waste an entire weekend. But the one time I don't bother will probably be when the whales finally capitulate.

This market historically has seen around 1000% per year increase.  Do you really think you're a good enough trader to beat 1000% a year?
I made almost 1000% during the two weeks of the April crash alone. A better trader probably could have made 10,000% It would torture to have been stuck in a position from 266 waiting an entire 6 months or a year just for the price recover to where I was at instead of being able to trade the massive volatility.
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October 22, 2013, 04:44:54 AM
 #92

Whenever we get near 200 its like the ghost of the flash crash is up there lurking and creating this panicky crash energy where a whole bunch of asks show up and bids are hit hard and deep. This is twice that gox and btce have dropped 15 in the bat of an eye (bit stamp 10). I fear its only going to going to get worse as we go higher. And this is without any whales even capitulating. How do you guys handle this with your nerves or get any sleep? I've tried shorting these movements a few times only to lose tiny fractions of my position and waste an entire weekend. But the one time I don't bother will probably be when the whales finally capitulate.

This market historically has seen around 1000% per year increase.  Do you really think you're a good enough trader to beat 1000% a year?
I made almost 1000% during the two weeks of the April crash alone. A better trader probably could have made 10,000% It would torture to have been stuck in a position from 266 waiting an entire 6 months or a year just for the price recover to where I was at instead of being able to trade the massive volatility.

Congratz for that! I bought, and hold hold hold da bitcoins, and bought and started mining. With the price increase the mining is hopefully turning out a nice ROI.....i bought my btc at an average of 65$ and i'll keep em as long as i could.....
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October 22, 2013, 04:51:41 AM
 #93

I don't see it going much past 300 again before another epic burst. sorry everybody
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October 22, 2013, 05:54:55 AM
 #94

I don't see it going much past 300 again before another epic burst. sorry everybody
i agree, i think we'll lose steam before then even, but we'll see! still all in obviously...... just not sleeping anymore in case of crash.

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October 22, 2013, 05:55:21 AM
 #95

I love how easily everyone falls for psychological digit barriers and is unable to think in log scale.

The $32 bubble, well, price went up over 1000%. It crashed to below where it started. And after a while we recovered and now $32 is ancient history.
The $13-$266, well, price went up over 1000%. And we never even hit the start point during the crash! Heck, we stayed almost 400% above the start point at all times! And now, not even a year later, all but the folks who bought in at the very top are seeing gains. What a bubble.

Now we've gone up, what, 40% from pre-SR-news price... and everyone's convinced that this is the worst possible time to buy into the "bubble" and it must end soon... will pop as soon as it gets over $200..

It might end right after we cross $200. But then again, we may just see another 1000%. Don't underestimate the market (or overestimate, for that matter.) Remember when a whole bunch of people were convinced $29 was the top in early 2013... 


So...sell at $1250...gotcha.

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October 22, 2013, 06:03:38 AM
 #96

Guys we need solutions for this sleep issue. It isn't healthy. Like phone apps with alarms that aware us when certain TA indicators are met and exchanges with advanced type of orders like stop loss / trailing stop loss. Maybe someone has written a bot that can detect and sell a crash?
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October 22, 2013, 06:10:28 AM
 #97

I think the problem is that Chinese bitcoin speculators didn't get bit hard by the last two bubble bursts so they can run this up who knows how high before it pops.  It will eventually pop because there's no sane reason for it to constantly be going up other than that people see the price going up and are thus buying lots of bitcoins to try and ride it up.  Who knows how long this will run but I'm more curious where it'll end up.
I'm pretty sad though since I got rid of most of my holdings a while back to buy something in bitcoin and now I've apparently paid 50% more in fiat.  =(

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October 22, 2013, 06:13:38 AM
 #98

seriously, i find it crazy that i can't put stop losses

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October 22, 2013, 06:37:27 AM
 #99

I think the problem is that Chinese bitcoin speculators didn't get bit hard by the last two bubble bursts so they can run this up who knows how high before it pops.  It will eventually pop because there's no sane reason for it to constantly be going up other than that people see the price going up and are thus buying lots of bitcoins to try and ride it up.  Who knows how long this will run but I'm more curious where it'll end up.
I'm pretty sad though since I got rid of most of my holdings a while back to buy something in bitcoin and now I've apparently paid 50% more in fiat.  =(
Oh god, imagine a 2011-style bubble in China. Bigger and faster than the 2013 bubble (which is now looking more like an exponential upward correction).
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October 22, 2013, 06:39:05 AM
 #100

seriously, i find it crazy that i can't put stop losses

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