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Author Topic: When will October's bubble burst?  (Read 10873 times)
Sitarow
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October 22, 2013, 08:29:21 AM
 #101

seriously, i find it crazy that i can't put stop losses

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Johnny Bitcoinseed
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October 22, 2013, 08:58:47 AM
 #102

One good thing about the run-up, and very important, is that it puts Bitcoin into the mainstream media spotlight once again.

Whether it rises or falls, if you are still holding your coins you have lost or gained nothing.  Just numbers on a screen you are looking at.  It is only when you exchange them for goods or services or another currency that any real profit or loss takes place.

Sincerely I am, Johnny BitcoinSeed .com
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October 22, 2013, 11:00:01 PM
 #103

Do you think the run-up/niche filling came to an end, stabilizing now?
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October 23, 2013, 01:22:19 AM
 #104

Do you think the run-up/niche filling came to an end, stabilizing now?


Or are we experiencing the fist signs of a bubble popping?

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October 23, 2013, 03:30:04 AM
 #105

I made almost 1000% during the two weeks of the April crash alone. A better trader probably could have made 10,000%.

I'm curious, please elaborate: how could one have traded two weeks within April to gain 10,000 %? Wink

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October 23, 2013, 05:02:56 AM
 #106

Chinese investors have a big amount of money, I think this time the rally will last for a long term, months..., ha?

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October 23, 2013, 05:23:00 AM
 #107

Could you please supply further information?
TERA
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October 23, 2013, 05:33:59 AM
 #108

I made almost 1000% during the two weeks of the April crash alone. A better trader probably could have made 10,000%.

I'm curious, please elaborate: how could one have traded two weeks within April to gain 10,000 %? Wink
By trading very short-term waves very skillfully.

I leave you with this:



And this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onMq0NHEEpo

Of course for the 10,000% it would probably have to be a small player starting with 20btc or less to have enough liquidity to make all of the trades.

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windjc
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October 23, 2013, 05:39:25 AM
 #109

You understand that 10,000% means that for every 1 bitcoin you started out with in the beginning of that two week period, you ended up with the equivalent of 100 BTC (USD equiv)? 

I doubt that you did this and I doubt it was possible.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
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October 23, 2013, 05:50:22 AM
 #110

You understand that 10,000% means that for every 1 bitcoin you started out with in the beginning of that two week period, you ended up with the equivalent of 100 BTC (USD equiv)?  

I doubt that you did this and I doubt it was possible.
Read again. I only said I made 1,000%, and that it might have been possible for someone else (superman) to make 10,000%

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bnjmnkent
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October 23, 2013, 06:01:25 AM
 #111

The shape now looks (to my untrained eye) quite similar to the crash
shape in april.
windjc
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October 23, 2013, 06:07:18 AM
 #112

The shape now looks (to my untrained eye) quite similar to the crash
shape in april.

Misread. Sorry.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
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October 23, 2013, 06:30:12 AM
 #113

You understand that 10,000% means that for every 1 bitcoin you started out with in the beginning of that two week period, you ended up with the equivalent of 100 BTC (USD equiv)?  

I doubt that you did this and I doubt it was possible.
Read again. I only said I made 1,000%, and that it might have been possible for someone else (superman) to make 10,000%

IMO even Superman couldn't have made 10,000%, but maybe 2,000%. There just weren't enough profit points to take
advantage of without massive risks. But congratulations on your 10x win, that's my desired target for the next big crash, I'll train for it.
However, I now tend to believe we won't have now such a big crash, at least not on Gox. Maybe China will drop harder, but still not like in April.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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October 23, 2013, 11:05:51 PM
 #114

I know traders posses skills and knowledge that I do not. But I also know there's some randomness in the mix. How much of trading success is due to skill vs. randomness? I think statistics dictates that if there are 1,000 traders of equal skill, a small percentage will do extremely well, simply due to being on the extreme edge of a probability curve -- in other words, some of those who look like geniuses will really just have benefitted from luck. So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck? And how does one know the trading tactics that worked well before will work again, when a much larger set of skilled traders may now be competing with them?

I'm long BTC, and while I buy on dips, I have yet to sell to take profits. I assume I might sell a portion of BTC at some level, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable to actively trade.

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October 23, 2013, 11:08:57 PM
 #115

I know traders posses skills and knowledge that I do not. But I also know there's some randomness in the mix. How much of trading success is due to skill vs. randomness? I think statistics dictates that if there are 1,000 traders of equal skill, a small percentage will do extremely well, simply due to being on the extreme edge of a probability curve -- in other words, some of those who look like geniuses will really just have benefitted from luck. So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck? And how does one know the trading tactics that worked well before will work again, when a much larger set of skilled traders may now be competing with them?

I'm long BTC, and while I buy on dips, I have yet to sell to take profits. I assume I might sell a portion of BTC at some level, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable to actively trade.

You don't know... until your luck runs out.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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bnjmnkent
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October 24, 2013, 01:11:19 AM
 #116

I know traders posses skills and knowledge that I do not. But I also know there's some randomness in the mix. How much of trading success is due to skill vs. randomness? I think statistics dictates that if there are 1,000 traders of equal skill, a small percentage will do extremely well, simply due to being on the extreme edge of a probability curve -- in other words, some of those who look like geniuses will really just have benefitted from luck. So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck? And how does one know the trading tactics that worked well before will work again, when a much larger set of skilled traders may now be competing with them?

I'm long BTC, and while I buy on dips, I have yet to sell to take profits. I assume I might sell a portion of BTC at some level, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable to actively trade.

Learn by doing.
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October 24, 2013, 01:23:18 AM
 #117

So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck?
According to every serious study that has been done on this topic: there is no such thing as skill - just illusions created by our inability to understand randomness accurately.

The only way to consistently beat the market is to cheat.
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October 24, 2013, 04:05:59 AM
 #118

Serious references, please.
theonewhowaskazu
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October 24, 2013, 05:03:35 AM
 #119

So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck?
According to every serious study that has been done on this topic: there is no such thing as skill - just illusions created by our inability to understand randomness accurately.

The only way to consistently beat the market is to cheat.

So are you cheating when you buy BTC which outperforms the S&P 500?

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October 24, 2013, 05:24:57 AM
 #120

answer to OP: right now Cheesy
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