jelin1984 (OP)
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Activity: 2408
Merit: 1004
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October 19, 2013, 12:29:38 PM |
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Does anyone know which was the next difficulty level for bitcoin?
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zulover
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October 19, 2013, 12:48:59 PM |
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I simply plus 100mill
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kendog77
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October 19, 2013, 02:08:13 PM |
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Surprisingly, it looks like difficulty is starting to level off a bit which is very hard to believe. Knc is still shipping hundreds of units per day, and difficulty is a lagging indicator because a lot of hashrate was added partway through the last difficulty increase. The current projection only shows a 6% increase. http://bitcoindifficulty.com |
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FeedbackLoop
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October 19, 2013, 02:29:38 PM |
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Surprisingly, it looks like difficulty is starting to level off a bit which is very hard to believe. Knc is still shipping hundreds of units per day, and difficulty is a lagging indicator because a lot of hashrate was added partway through the last difficulty increase. The current projection only shows a 6% increase. http://bitcoindifficulty.comThat has been bugged, stuck, for a while. Click the source underneath, the sipa link, for current estimates. Also, this is mining speculation forum stuff. That is a good forum and you should use it. |
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fattypig
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October 20, 2013, 03:45:03 AM |
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Surprisingly, it looks like difficulty is starting to level off a bit which is very hard to believe. Knc is still shipping hundreds of units per day, and difficulty is a lagging indicator because a lot of hashrate was added partway through the last difficulty increase. The current projection only shows a 6% increase. http://bitcoindifficulty.comThis website is wrong, it shows increase of 50% in other website. Just search around and you will find it.. |
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Zebra
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October 20, 2013, 08:55:52 AM |
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Surprisingly, it looks like difficulty is starting to level off a bit which is very hard to believe. Knc is still shipping hundreds of units per day, and difficulty is a lagging indicator because a lot of hashrate was added partway through the last difficulty increase. The current projection only shows a 6% increase. http://bitcoindifficulty.comThis website is wrong, it shows increase of 50% in other website. Just search around and you will find it.. The number freezes for days and is out-dated. http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.phpThis is not working as well for days. http://bitcoincharts.com/The stats are working, and is showing Estimated 317394413 in 1291 blkshttp://blockexplorer.com/q/estimateIt gives 349942973.54871676, which is so different from the above number. Any idea about the two different numbers?  |
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immortal4now
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Activity: 612
Merit: 102
Chromia - Relational Blockchain
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October 20, 2013, 09:03:33 AM |
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All chains shows 349696347, the big differences depend on estimate function. Like when you expect new machines will be plugged in, the difficulty is predicted higher than if you expect no new machines are added for the remaining 6 days |
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Puppet
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Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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October 20, 2013, 09:07:05 AM
Last edit: October 20, 2013, 09:03:25 PM by Puppet |
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dot-bit had the best prediction, but the page is down atm. bit coin difficulty . com just grabbed the number from the now defunct dot-bit page, and the chart from sipa, and then puts a banner ad on it to make money from other people's work. Current best estimation site is this one: http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyIf you scroll down to the second chart you can see how their past predictions evolved and panned out, and although the axis is logarithmic, still pretty decent. Its current estimate is ~400M, but just like the previous change, its probably not taking in to account the full impact of the KnC massive shipping, so this is probably too conservative. |
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Zebra
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October 20, 2013, 09:40:24 AM |
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Thanks for immortal4now's explanation and also Puppet's info. I knew bitcoindifficulty.com used sipa's graph, but I didn't know it used dot-bit data before. Now, I could delete that site from my bookmark  |
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rammy2k2
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Activity: 1974
Merit: 1003
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October 20, 2013, 11:23:11 AM |
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the next diff will be again a huge one, so far it will be at least 31%, but its growing daily
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imrer
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October 20, 2013, 09:01:45 PM |
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It's growing faster and faster. I believe so many miners mine for hope that the price will go up.
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arlekyn13
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October 21, 2013, 05:30:38 AM |
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It's growing faster and faster. I believe so many miners mine for hope that the price will go up.
Same old mistake many new miners do. Unless you get a positive ROI from mining in BTC, buying a miner is still a bad choice no matter the conversion rate. |
1CmrswU7JYpi9WNC8EHWCV3aam1FJsW2Zu - to show appreciation for my work
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smoothie
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Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
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October 21, 2013, 08:29:22 AM |
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GigaWave
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October 21, 2013, 03:17:15 PM |
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With 2.8 petra hash the diff. needs to be ~390 million for the block rate target.
Only about 700 tera hash need for 500 million diff.
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Puppet
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Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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October 22, 2013, 06:51:34 AM |
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With 2.8 petra hash the diff. needs to be ~390 million for the block rate target.
Only about 700 tera hash need for 500 million diff.
The difficulty change isnt based on the last hashrate, but on the average hashrate over the previous period. So it will take a lot more than 700TH . To get to 500M at the next change, the network would need to have averaged 3.5 PH over the period. Since it started around 2.4 PH and was flat for some days, it would need to end closer to 5PH. |
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Puppet
Legendary
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Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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October 22, 2013, 10:19:43 AM |
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We are all doomed...
Nope. Only the ones who did not see this coming and where daft enough to preorder from HF, CT or even BFL. The coins in my wallet are doing just fine, thank you very much. |
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evansearle42
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October 22, 2013, 12:23:17 PM |
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We are all doomed...
Nope. Only the ones who did not see this coming and where daft enough to preorder from HF, CT or even BFL. The coins in my wallet are doing just fine, thank you very much. I am also doomed. I only assumed 25% in my calculation. Never though it would be 40% and now 50%..... |
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GigaWave
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October 22, 2013, 03:03:04 PM |
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With 2.8 petra hash the diff. needs to be ~390 million for the block rate target.
Only about 700 tera hash need for 500 million diff.
The difficulty change isnt based on the last hashrate, but on the average hashrate over the previous period. So it will take a lot more than 700TH . To get to 500M at the next change, the network would need to have averaged 3.5 PH over the period. Since it started around 2.4 PH and was flat for some days, it would need to end closer to 5PH. Yes, I know this. See "for the block rate target". Just stating that the hash rate is there for X Difficulty. It will probably take a least one more Diff. correction after this coming one to be closer to the real target. Up to ~3.4 Petra hash, 474 Million diff |
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