[stats] Bitcointalk vs BTC price - Bitcoin bubble alert! [update 20/10/13]

[dnaleor]

Hi!

The recent price trend calls for a fresh update

Unfortunatly, new members are not yet allowed to the forum, so no data for "new members".
But this also influences the other parameters (less posts and topics)

anyway, the number of new posts and topics dropped a little. But the price just raced upwards...
I fear we are going into bubble territory...

Do you have an opinion about these charts? Please post your comments below

Previous discussion: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=308653.0

charts:

"smoothed chart":

Raw data: https://i.imgur.com/6LAnQZ9.png

"smoothed log chart":

Raw data: https://i.imgur.com/JGN0ZOZ.png

Feel free to share these charts, but please don't remove the QR-code, thanks!
and maybe consider a small donation ;-)

[RationalSpeculator]

Thanks, how come new members cannot register anymore? Is there a thread with more info?


Indeed the price seems very disconnected from all other parameters.

Does this mean that it is very likely it's some large new investor that has been buying it up lately?

I'll post a poll

[dnaleor]

Thanks, how come new members cannot register anymore? Is there a thread with more info?


Indeed the price seems very disconnected from all other parameters.

Does this mean that it is very likely it's some large new investor that has been buying it up lately?

I'll post a poll

Not much info about registration, but here is the announcement: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=308728.0

My guess is indeed that the current price spike is just speculation/investment. It also makes sense (after TSR closed, people apparently trust bitcoin).
It is also possible that, when we see more adoption of bitcoin, these charts will become useless... We can expect that the percentage of bitcoin users that registers on bitcointalk will drop.

[Rannasha]

As Bitcoin adoption grows, the price and Bitcointalk-stats should become less and less connected. If something is small and unknown, it makes sense for users to gather in a central place to discuss, but not so much for a large userbase. More and more people will simply use the currency, without having a need to discuss it. There are no centralized "dollartalk" or "eurotalk" forums either after all.

[dnaleor]

As Bitcoin adoption grows, the price and Bitcointalk-stats should become less and less connected. If something is small and unknown, it makes sense for users to gather in a central place to discuss, but not so much for a large userbase. More and more people will simply use the currency, without having a need to discuss it. There are no centralized "dollartalk" or "eurotalk" forums either after all.

maybe you are right. If this is the case... This chart should be considered as bullish

But my guess is that the recent spike above 150 USD is just speculation...

[RationalSpeculator]

As Bitcoin adoption grows, the price and Bitcointalk-stats should become less and less connected. If something is small and unknown, it makes sense for users to gather in a central place to discuss, but not so much for a large userbase. More and more people will simply use the currency, without having a need to discuss it. There are no centralized "dollartalk" or "eurotalk" forums either after all.

Sure, but when one goes up and the other goes down, that is suspect.

Dnaleor, could it be that reddit/bitcoin is taking over from the forum? Maybe there is growth there?

[dnaleor]

As Bitcoin adoption grows, the price and Bitcointalk-stats should become less and less connected. If something is small and unknown, it makes sense for users to gather in a central place to discuss, but not so much for a large userbase. More and more people will simply use the currency, without having a need to discuss it. There are no centralized "dollartalk" or "eurotalk" forums either after all.

Sure, but when one goes up and the other goes down, that is suspect.

indeed... disconnection from the stats seems logical in the long run. But we are not yet in the situation where bitcointalk will dissapear because there is no need for the forum...

=> im very cautious with the current drop in activity

[Birdy]

It's kinda obvious that activity drops when registration from new members is disabled.
Less questions to answer, less spam bots and so on.

[RationalSpeculator]

It's kinda obvious that activity drops when registration from new members is disabled.
Less questions to answer, less spam bots and so on.

True also.

But even before the forum troubles the trend was just stagnant for some months already while price was going up.

[fattypig]

But this time the forum activity isn't going up, maybe we should also add in statistic from china's forum.

[dnaleor]

But this time the forum activity isn't going up, maybe we should also add in statistic from china's forum.

do you have a link for that forum? I can add it in the next update

[SheHadMANHands]

Last bubble the rally started at $15 and ended at ~$260.  This "bubble" we were at ~$130 a month and now we're at ~$165...  (also following announcement of SecondMarket fund, SR closure attention, China boom, etc.)

 

[dnaleor]

Last bubble the rally started at $15 and ended at ~$260.  This "bubble" we were at ~$130 a month and now we're at ~$165...  (also following announcement of SecondMarket fund, SR closure attention, China boom, etc.)

 

its just an "alert". I myself am not (yet) selling

[yogi]

At the pub last night, I asked a chap if he had ever hear of bitcoin. I ask this question often and the answer is invariable 'no'. But, last night the answer was 'yes, I use bitcoin'. So I asked him what his username was on bitcointalk and he said 'what's bitcointalk?'

[dnaleor]

At the pub last night, I asked a chap if he had ever hear of bitcoin. I ask this question often and the answer is invariable 'no'. But, last night the answer was 'yes, I use bitcoin'. So I asked him what his username was on bitcointalk and he said 'what's bitcointalk?'

strange...All the people I know who invested in bitcoin are on bitcointalk as well...

[Pruden]

I just noticed March smashed the record for new members in a month.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats

One more omen the bottom is in, if I understand it correctly.

[dnaleor]

I just noticed March smashed the record for new members in a month.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats

One more omen the bottom is in, if I understand it correctly.

I will update this ASAP