USDBTC Technical Analysis Charts 2011 & 2013 (Firefox Only)

[trinaldao]

[trinaldao]

[trinaldao]

I have just put this chart together from raw data supplied at bitcoincharts, and transposed it into Equis' Metastock.

The technical indicators that I have noticed on the outset, I applied a template that works fairly well on commodities continuous charts, are the Bollinger Bands (in green) which are set to 65 Day/Exponential, the trend indicator and momentum.

As the Bollinger Bands demonstrate, once the price action prints above the top band, there a correction always follows.

I have noticed that on this very last jump to 190 in the last day or two, the momentum figures are decreasing.  So this price is going up, passing the top Bollinger with less buyers.

The Trend Indicator (Stochastic Oscillator) is starting to point downwards.  Though, I still do not have the complete volume figures for todays trading.  So that might change tomorrow.

So, I am guessing two outcomes might come from here. 

1) The price starts to correct a little, before heading upwards again to test the April High then corrects or gets a some TV time from Bloomberg and CNBC taking us to a new level, bringing in a bunch of new people, whilst some of the April TV buyers that held distribute their positions along with other speculators.  Then we get a correction back to 125 or 105 or LOWER (depending how high the new high will be).

2) The price just corrects now and consolidates.

I am going to need to tweak these moving averages, does anyone have any MA's that are working well with this chart?

[yogi]

The images aren't showing, is it just me?

[trinaldao]

The images aren't showing, is it just me?

I can see them from different machines.  Do you have Ad Blocker on by any chance?

Here are the url's for it for anyone experiencing difficulty viewing the charts.

hrm666.sdf.org/USDBITCOIN2011.bmp

hrm666.sdf.org/USDBITCOIN2013.bmp

[damnek]

Influx of trolls talking the price down: bullish

[yogi]

The charts are showing in Firefox but not in Chrome. I don't think Chrome likes large bmp's.

Interesting charts though, thanks trinaldao.

[Chalkbot]

Influx of trolls talking the price down: bullish

lol, this is what I was thinking.

[trinaldao]

Influx of trolls talking the price down: bullish

lol, this is what I was thinking.

And yet, I am soo Bullish BTC

i just need to find a damn entry point now.

[trinaldao]

So instead of fixing the issue you decided to add "(Firefox Only)"...
Very professional.

Touché...

I got locked out of my hosting, I think I must have hit my limit or something.

I will fix it in the morning.

What... You have no Firefox?

[RyNinDaCleM]

As the Bollinger Bands demonstrate, once the price action prints above the top band, there a correction always follows.

Are you kidding? The price rode the top band for 3 months on the rise to $266. Closing above the upper BB is quite bullish 9 times out of 10.

2) The price just corrects now and consolidates.

The current correction appears to be complete! See ya at $200 (triangle thrust target) and possibly ~$230 (H&S target). Both are possible short term tops for the wave V of (I) of [V], but this is Bitcoin... It tends to overshoot targets in both directions

[TraderTimm]

Little problem with the "Price hits the top of the bollinger bands and ALWAYS goes down".

Take a look at the rise from this year - the rally to 260's. So, you get an upward curve of price. Hey look, its trading at/above the bollinger band! Better sell! Oh wait, its continuing to go up! Uh oh, well uh... its still doing it... okay.. maybe sell some more.. Oh dammit, it keeps going...

Get what I'm saying? You're applying hindsight to something that can't be traded the way you think it can.

If you sold every time you were above the upper bollinger band, you'd be the most bitter trader in the world, as the market zoomed to new highs.

[CEG5952]

Influx of trolls talking the price down: bullish

lol, this is what I was thinking.

funny, i thought the opposite. many perma bulls reassuring each other of 1000000n % gains and all around bull party = top coming soon.....

[Marbit]

interesting. anyone think there is anything to this top channel trend line?

[Odalv]

Little problem with the "Price hits the top of the bollinger bands and ALWAYS goes down".

Take a look at the rise from this year - the rally to 260's. So, you get an upward curve of price. Hey look, its trading at/above the bollinger band! Better sell! Oh wait, its continuing to go up! Uh oh, well uh... its still doing it... okay.. maybe sell some more.. Oh dammit, it keeps going...

Get what I'm saying? You're applying hindsight to something that can't be traded the way you think it can.

If you sold every time you were above the upper bollinger band, you'd be the most bitter trader in the world, as the market zoomed to new highs.

It is easy. FA says "there are only 12M BTC now" and 7B people. => 100k people owning btc now  / 7B total people

[amgomez]

So, given the second chart... TA predicted SR was going to be closed that precise day!  WOW! 

[notme]

So, given the second chart... TA predicted SR was going to be closed that precise day!  WOW! 

The crash happened about a week after the charges were filed.  TA works because insiders always trade, so the market sees the effect of the news before the news is public.