Thoughts on Bitfinex statistics?

[SheHadMANHands]

Just a sample from the "Lending" page, below.  Thoughts?

If I'm reading correctly, there may be many traders long, currently, and there are more traders willing to borrow USD (up to ~$55K) at 100% APR.  If traders haven't eaten up the lower APR loans that were available, then those loans have been removed (and the lender likely purchased BTC himself).

1) Does this say something about the confidence in the current bullish market?
2) Can we assume the average Bitfinex trader is more informed (or a "better trader") than the general population?

[ArticMine]

It is indicative of a market that is getting overheated. This does not mean it is going to crash right away but when it does, the crash will sharp and violent. The BTC will then end up in stronger hands namely those who own the BTC outright and / or can borrow USD or other fiat at more reasonable rates say well under 10% APR.
 
I also suspect that the correction / crash will start in China.

[SheHadMANHands]

What I found most interesting is that there is $55k requested at the moment at 100+% APR.

By extension, there's apparently no one on Bitfinex at the moment willing to sell their BTC to fulfill that request.  It's all automated with Bitfinex, if I undersand correctly, so it's not like there's too much risk to loaning and that's why no one will fulfill at 100+%.

[windjc]

Thats why I know someone who sent $$ for lending there today.

[SheHadMANHands]

Thats why I know someone who sent $$ for lending there today.

The problem is it's all bitcoin-ers lending the cash, lol.

If the general public and bitcoin naive were aware of bitfinex, there'd be much lower rates always available.

[Peter R]

The interest rates seem too good to be true.  Sort of off-topic, but does anyone have experience lending on Bitfinex?  Would you trust them with, say, 5% of your net worth?

[SheHadMANHands]

The interest rates seem too good to be true.  Sort of off-topic, but does anyone have experience lending on Bitfinex?  Would you trust them with, say, 5% of your net worth?

Experience on the borrowing side, but not the lending side.  The mechanism is the same.  The owner is in France and is very responsive:
fr.linkedin.com/in/raphaelnicolle/

To my knowledge, there haven't been any real issues there.

[RyNinDaCleM]

The interest rates seem too good to be true.  Sort of off-topic, but does anyone have experience lending on Bitfinex?  Would you trust them with, say, 5% of your net worth?

Just wait until the rally gets going full steam! In March/April there were rates as high as 8000%+. When Bitcoiners panic, they panic hard

[byronbb]

But it makes no sense that if you ran bitfinex you down't go to the bank and borrow HAND OVER FIST at whatever joke QE interest rates are being offered by central crony banks, and then lend it out at insanely profitable rates to BTC shorters.

[vokain]

But it makes no sense that if you ran bitfinex you down't go to the bank and borrow HAND OVER FIST at whatever joke QE interest rates are being offered by central crony banks, and then lend it out at insanely profitable rates to BTC shorters.

Bitfinex wouldn't lend USD to BTC shorters, they'd pass through the loan to the bulls paying the exorbitant rates on BFX and profit the difference.

[Peter R]

But it makes no sense that if you ran bitfinex you down't go to the bank and borrow HAND OVER FIST at whatever joke QE interest rates are being offered by central crony banks, and then lend it out at insanely profitable rates to BTC shorters.

Bitfinex wouldn't lend USD to BTC shorters, they'd pass through the loan to the bulls paying the exorbitant rates on BFX and profit the difference.

Still [following byronbb's reasoning]: why allow us to earn 200% interest lending USD, when, I would assume, they could borrow Bernanke bucks or the Hong Kong equivalent at a vastly lower rate?  

[mccoyspace]

I've done a lot of trading at bitfinex. I've lent and borrowed USD, gone long and short BTC. It's a good exchange. The people that run it are very responsive.
I've never had a problem with them.

[vokain]

But it makes no sense that if you ran bitfinex you down't go to the bank and borrow HAND OVER FIST at whatever joke QE interest rates are being offered by central crony banks, and then lend it out at insanely profitable rates to BTC shorters.

Bitfinex wouldn't lend USD to BTC shorters, they'd pass through the loan to the bulls paying the exorbitant rates on BFX and profit the difference.

Still [following byronbb's reasoning]: why allow us to earn 200% interest lending USD, when, I would assume, they could borrow Bernanke bucks or the Hong Kong equivalent at a vastly lower rate?  

Perhaps they'd rather hold BTC themselves

[mccoyspace]

But it makes no sense that if you ran bitfinex you down't go to the bank and borrow HAND OVER FIST at whatever joke QE interest rates are being offered by central crony banks, and then lend it out at insanely profitable rates to BTC shorters.

Bitfinex wouldn't lend USD to BTC shorters, they'd pass through the loan to the bulls paying the exorbitant rates on BFX and profit the difference.

Still [following byronbb's reasoning]: why allow us to earn 200% interest lending USD, when, I would assume, they could borrow Bernanke bucks or the Hong Kong equivalent at a vastly lower rate?  

At bitfinex you borrow USD to go long BTC and you borrow BTC to go short.
Everything that is borrowed stays on the exchange. You certainly could borrow money from the bank for any kind of investment. It's not usually recommended.
The challenge with USD lending during "normal" times is that you can't keep your loans out. I guess if you lent it really low (e.g. 12% apr) you would have takers most of the time. But the exchange takes 10% of your interest payment, 30% if you want them to guarantee your loan (which if you were borrowing the money in the first place would be a good idea). SO it ends up being a tough way to make a few points of interest.

[Peter R]

But it makes no sense that if you ran bitfinex you down't go to the bank and borrow HAND OVER FIST at whatever joke QE interest rates are being offered by central crony banks, and then lend it out at insanely profitable rates to BTC shorters.

Bitfinex wouldn't lend USD to BTC shorters, they'd pass through the loan to the bulls paying the exorbitant rates on BFX and profit the difference.

Still [following byronbb's reasoning]: why allow us to earn 200% interest lending USD, when, I would assume, they could borrow Bernanke bucks or the Hong Kong equivalent at a vastly lower rate?  

Perhaps they'd rather hold BTC themselves

I'm skeptical, but leaning the same way vokain: the people that *know* about bitfinex are all bulls so they'd all rather have BTC than USD.  Those with lots of USD but without knowledge of bitcoin don't know what they are missing, and couldn't assess the risks properly anyways.  

[Peter R]

But it makes no sense that if you ran bitfinex you down't go to the bank and borrow HAND OVER FIST at whatever joke QE interest rates are being offered by central crony banks, and then lend it out at insanely profitable rates to BTC shorters.

Bitfinex wouldn't lend USD to BTC shorters, they'd pass through the loan to the bulls paying the exorbitant rates on BFX and profit the difference.

Still [following byronbb's reasoning]: why allow us to earn 200% interest lending USD, when, I would assume, they could borrow Bernanke bucks or the Hong Kong equivalent at a vastly lower rate?  

At bitfinex you borrow USD to go long BTC and you borrow BTC to go short.
Everything that is borrowed stays on the exchange. You certainly could borrow money from the bank for any kind of investment. It's not usually recommended.
The challenge with USD lending during "normal" times is that you can't keep your loans out. I guess if you lent it really low (e.g. 12% apr) you would have takers most of the time. But the exchange takes 10% of your interest payment, 30% if you want them to guarantee your loan (which if you were borrowing the money in the first place would be a good idea). SO it ends up being a tough way to make a few points of interest.

Hmm, I've only known about Bitfinex for 4 days now   So you are saying that most of the time the interest rate to keep the money lent out is more like 12%, hey?  It all makes more sense if that is the case.

[vokain]

Hmm, I've only known about Bitfinex for 4 days now   So you are saying that most of the time the interest rate to keep the money lent out is more like 12%, hey?  It all makes more sense if that is the case.

I see it mostly linger around the 20-40% apr range during non bull dominant times. Hell, I still have a loan held with a BFX lender that is at 29%

[mccoyspace]

fyi
bitfinex market stats page:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

1.7 million USD loaned out currently

[Peter R]

Hmm, I've only known about Bitfinex for 4 days now   So you are saying that most of the time the interest rate to keep the money lent out is more like 12%, hey?  It all makes more sense if that is the case.

I see it mostly linger around the 20-30% apr range. Hell, I still have a loan held with BFX that is at 29%

20-30% is still awesome on a USD deposit.

I guess one risk is that the borrower's aren't liquidated in time during a severe crash, in which case your losses (on uninsured loans) would be correlated with your bitcoin losses.  This would defeat the "diversity" we may believe we are achieving in our portfolios.

Hmm, what is an appropriate % of net worth to invest with Bitfinex....

[vokain]

fyi
bitfinex market stats page:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

1.7 million USD loaned out currently

And BFX is already earning at least a cool 10% on all the interest their loaners are collecting.