Recent events in pictures.

[bzzard]

Most of you seems to be fixated on idea that Chinese are behind this rally. Well maybe to some point. But I have a another idea - we have a rally because of ...silkroad crash.

What you can read from image bellow?


A lot of folks panic-sold and then price go back to almost original position too fast to go back on BTC train.
Why I know that? Because there's 39k BTC more sold than bought in this event.

I know this also because of orderbook. This is how thing looked before crash:


The bottom was 109.7 and there's 38.5k BTC to go there.


Next important thing is how orderbook looked after crash. Do we need 38k to go there?




No. 7k BTC is just enough.

Third reason I know that because I was one of this suckers who panic sold and don't buy back fast enough (with hope this is just dead cat bounce).


Now we have a situation where suddenly a lot of folks sitting on bunch of USD ...on MtGox. This USD can't be take out from gox without weeks/months of waiting.

"the price will go down and the I will rebuy"   ...right




Week later - bears are still asleep. Bulls instead are getting strong (fast going back on track after crash, and again a lot of folks got reminded on bitcoins).


There's no other option. Folks who sold must buy at higher price:


Then when sell/buy difference since before crash got close to zero we got some top, and rally was over.
(of course panic folks rebought a lot less BTC than they have originally)

Why after that we have another, bigger rally? Well, maybe we have a rally because we have a rally ...

[Davyd05]

Think a combination of these factors, Chinese adoption, re-adoption and adoption by those fearing silk roads being the backing of btc and I do somewhat agree that Fiat stuck in gox would lead to people re buying when the market shows ..I guess a somewhat short-term (at this point) steady rise.

[notme]

Good explanation of one factor currently affecting the market.

[Spekulatius]

@ OP: According to my quick census, roughly 22M USD have been sold during SR crash and on the way up until today, while 46,5 M USD have been bought at the same time. This would debunk your theorie pretty much since we are already twice past the point where USD bought and sold equal each other out, thus according to you, let up buying pressure.

Why USD? Because thats what speculators were left with when they sold their Bitcoins during the SR crash. I dont asume that they all have the money and determination to acquire the same amount of Bitcoins even at higher prices then before the crash.

How do you explain that?

P.S.: I used this chart to do my count:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zigDailyzczsg2013-09-23zeg2013-10-23ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv

[bzzard]

@ OP: According to my quick census, roughly 22M USD have been sold during SR crash

22M - this is incorrect. bitcoincharts.com shows you total volume bar. Thing you know is that there's >50% sell action (because it is red).
This is how this looks when you separate buy and sell:




So there's 41k BTC sold from the start to the bottom. Let's say medium sell price is $125 that will get us to $5,125,000 in hands of sellers.

Pre-crash orderbook says this also (to get to 109 you need $4.7M).

This would debunk your theorie pretty much since we are already twice past the point where USD bought

Im not talking about "now" - this is where my theory ends (at $160):

It's point where ~90% of BTC was rebought.

If you want to talk dollars. To get to 160$ you need similar amount $4,7M, so things are still correct (since this is similar to cash from "crash selling"):

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

So what you're saying is, panic sellers mostly only sell so they can get more bitcoins? Sounds good to me.