Bitcoin might rise $1000 unexpectedly soon

[Gordonium]

We'll see.

[1714151414]

1714151414

[1714151414]

1714151414

[1714151414]

1714151414

[Buffer Overflow]

Well you just told us about it so it's now not unexpected.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

OK, but don't be the guy who chickens out and sells when the price crashes 80% on its way there, because that kind of rise will be gut-wrenchingly volatile.

[b!z]

Thanks for the tip, I will wait and see if that ever happens.

[600watt]

i hope we have enough time left to get this one going:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=285771.msg3055867#msg3055867

[xDan]

The punchline is that also, it may not.

[600watt]

The punchline is that also, it may not.

yeah, may be not today. agreed.

[Ashitank]

Did you see this in your dream if not , then no go ! 

[samson]

The first person to market dump 5000 BTC is the winner

[vokain]

The first person to market dump 5000 BTC is the winner

getting trickier since the exchange volume is much more distributed now

[PrintMule]

We'll see.

It look's like a bubble is running out of air a little bit. It would be much more important to guess how FAST/SLOW will it go down, and to which mark. Plan ahead.

[MAbtc]

The first person to market dump 5000 BTC is the winner

getting trickier since the exchange volume is much more distributed now

Gox and Bitstamp still follow one another, and BTC-E still follows them. I think it's possible that we may see a decoupling from the Chinese exchanges, based on future price action. No doubt that western traders are unwilling to follow the Chinese exchanges at the rate at which they have risen recently.

[ImI]

The first person to market dump 5000 BTC is the winner

getting trickier since the exchange volume is much more distributed now

Gox and Bitstamp still follow one another, and BTC-E still follows them. I think it's possible that we may see a decoupling from the Chinese exchanges, based on future price action. No doubt that western traders are unwilling to follow the Chinese exchanges at the rate at which they have risen recently.

Following exchanges isnt something that any trader has decided to follow or not to follow. Price Gap-> Arbitrage-gains -> closing the Price Gap.

[somestranger]

There's no way that's going to happen unless "unexpectedly soon" is months from now.

[tutkarz]

what if whales are afraid now to dump bitcoins because other exchanges may not follow and they will have to buy back for higher price a while later?

[Gordonium]

Whales are not going to dump anything before 2017-2020. For now it is mostly guppies are running around and making all the noise.

Ohh and 1000$ is not unexpected at all.

Just out of curiosity. Vladimir, how much do you think that price will be in 2020?

[dexX7]

Just out of curiosity. Vladimir, how much do you think that price will be in 2020?

For several reasons I doubt you are able to messure BTC in USD in 2020, so I think you need to redefine your question.

[Gordonium]

Just out of curiosity. Vladimir, how much do you think that price will be in 2020?

For several reasons I doubt you are able to messure BTC in USD in 2020, so I think you need to redefine your question.

What I meant was in todays purchasing power of dollars.

[tonto]

Well I hope it does rise to $1000, 'cause I need to buy a generator and a set of Dan Wesson revolvers.   And my 5 coins aren't doing shit for me right now.  So climb climb climb!!

[zachcope]

Just out of curiosity. Vladimir, how much do you think that price will be in 2020?

For several reasons I doubt you are able to messure BTC in USD in 2020, so I think you need to redefine your question.

What I meant was in todays purchasing power of dollars.

dexX7 is probably right and I suppose we here saying USD in future tense usually mean "today's USD".

I do not know the answer to Gordonium's question. I, however, expect that there will be supply shocks around 2017 and 2020. See https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply and specifically new coin emission dropping from 9% and 4% and from ~4% to ~2%.

There is also upcoming supply shock, which will happens much sooner when current 3-5% a day difficulty growth drop to 0% or less which will also mean supply of new coins dropping by about 40%. Of course, this is only about new coin supply. There is also old coin/hoard supply and demand parts of the equation that also affect the price.

But if you want a number, I would say/speculate ~100 000$ per BTC in 2017 and closer to 1 000 000$ per BTC in 2020.

Love it Vlad - true bitcoin believer and legend! Count me in on that prediction woohoo buy and hold baybee!

[qwertyGuy]

what if whales are afraid now to dump bitcoins because other exchanges may not follow and they will have to buy back for higher price a while later?

Whales are not going to dump anything before 2017-2020. For now it is mostly guppies are running around and making all the noise.

Whales do not hold coins long term. They use the coins to manipulate price.

[smoothie]

what if whales are afraid now to dump bitcoins because other exchanges may not follow and they will have to buy back for higher price a while later?

Whales are not going to dump anything before 2017-2020. For now it is mostly guppies are running around and making all the noise.

Whales do not hold coins long term. They use the coins to manipulate price.

lol Hard to manipulate the price by using coins without actually holding coins. Your theory makes little sense.

[vokain]

what if whales are afraid now to dump bitcoins because other exchanges may not follow and they will have to buy back for higher price a while later?

Whales are not going to dump anything before 2017-2020. For now it is mostly guppies are running around and making all the noise.

Whales do not hold coins long term. They use the coins to manipulate price.

lol Hard to manipulate the price by using coins without actually holding coins. Your theory makes little sense.

what do you guys consider to be a whale nowadays?

[mccorvic]

I hope it isn't too soon.  I need more time to acquire coins.

Mooooaaaaar time.

[Tirapon]

what if whales are afraid now to dump bitcoins because other exchanges may not follow and they will have to buy back for higher price a while later?

Whales are not going to dump anything before 2017-2020. For now it is mostly guppies are running around and making all the noise.

Whales do not hold coins long term. They use the coins to manipulate price.

lol Hard to manipulate the price by using coins without actually holding coins. Your theory makes little sense.

what do you guys consider to be a whale nowadays?

Maybe >10 000 BTC?

[nobbynobbynoob]

what do you guys consider to be a whale nowadays?

Maybe >10 000 BTC?

>BTC1.000 IMHO.

[muyuu]

$1000? those are still cheap BTCitcoins.


BUUUuuUuUuYYyyy 

[Tirapon]

what do you guys consider to be a whale nowadays?

Maybe >10 000 BTC?

>BTC1.000 IMHO.

How much would you be able to move the market with BTC1000?

[BitchicksHusband]

rpietila talked about moving the market from 117 to 109 using a thousand bitcoins.  So right now, if it's twice that distance, about $12.

[vokain]

rpietila talked about moving the market from 117 to 109 using a thousand bitcoins.  So right now, if it's twice that distance, about $12.

https://www.bitstamp.net/market/order_book/

as of the time of this post on bitstamp,  a 1000 BTC market sale would take us from ~203 to ~198, assuming no dark pool orders on bitfinex

[BitchicksHusband]

But you're not taking the panic sells into account.  When someone dumps big a lot of smaller fries also dump.

[Zawamiya]

Bitcoin might also drop to $1 unexpectedly. Anything can happen..

[painlord2k]

.......
But if you want a number, I would say/speculate ~100 000$ per BTC in 2017 and closer to 1 000 000$ per BTC in 2020.

I agree with the price targets, but the times could be a lot closer than many thinks or are able to foresee.
The reason is fiat money is backed by "the full faith in governments ability to keep their value stable".
If this faith (because it is blind faith) is shaken, you will see a lot of movements inside bitcoin from every fiat currency.
The main point is the differential growth of the base money of Bitcoin compared with all other fiat currencies.
Not only the price is pushed up by the increasing adoption and use, but the differential inflation (will) make bitcoin a better investment than T-Bill, Bunds, Bonos, Buoni, etc. without the counterparty risk of a bill/bond.

It is a feedback loop where increasing in price drive adoption (for payment and speculation/saving) and adoption drive increasing price.

[b!z]

Maybe there is a chance that it could happen in a few years. Not this year, though.

[adamstgBit]

Maybe there is a chance that it could happen in a few years. Not this year, though.

early next year?

[chriswilmer]

Maybe there is a chance that it could happen in a few years. Not this year, though.

early next year?

I think if we break the ATH, which could be this month (who knows), then anything is possible. I guess there are only 60 or so days left of this year... so yeah, $1,000 would be a Christmas miracle

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

The only real limits on insane growth are the infrastucture buckling under the traffic, major governments bringing out the banhammer, or some development or mining shenanigans that could happen simply because the defense mechanisms aren't given enough time to adapt.

Because of those upper limiting factors I don't think we can reach mainstream in less than 2-3 years. Probably more like 5-7, or up to 10, for full mainstream adoption. Bitcoin grows exponentially, but infrastructure and best practices don't.

Though arguably, once Bitcoin's totally ready, the adoption could be lightning fast, simply because when fiat money and gold are eyed suspiciously while Bitcoin ascends to royalty, their flaws will be truly frightening. It's not scary to own  obviously inferior assets at a time when people see them as superior, but when people actually are recognizing their inferiority as an accounting system it will be genuinely scary to be holding slips of paper and chunks of metal.

[Shallow]

We won't see 1k for at least another year

[adamstgBit]

We won't see 1k for at least another year

lol

there's only one way to get to 10K if bitcoin is successful in just one use cases it implies a value of more then 1K easy.


Bitcoin might rise $1000 unexpectedly soon!!!

[BitchicksHusband]

But that doesn't guarantee that we will be over $1000K a year from now.

[EccLipSe]

why do you think that happens?

[InwardContour]

I don't think we'll reach $1000 on this run. But it's a roller coaster with btc, can't say for sure! Wonder what next week will bring... hopefully some volume....

[goldlyre]

Methinks price of BTC might get doubled in a single day soon. Then it consolidates for a very very lonnnnnnnnnnnnnnng time. 

[hromobiti]

Bitcoin might rise $1000 unexpectedly soon!!!

It cant rise very fast, you would need a lot of USD in, because most would sell part of coins for huge profits

[capsqrl]

But that doesn't guarantee that we will be over $1000K a year from now.

I don't think anybody has argued that the price will be $1000K (one million dollars) in a year from now. :-P

[Tirapon]

Then it consolidates for a very very lonnnnnnnnnnnnnnng time. 

What, like 6 months? 

[Golph]

Still waiting for the unexpected rise to $1000. Its $220 right now which is pretty good rise over the month...

[matt608]

My guess is we will reach $1k in 2016 when the block reward halves.  Then onto $10k.

[jzcjca00]

It's amazing how the news reports have suddenly changed from heavily-biased negativity to optimism.  I suspect that means the super rich who own the media have finished taking their positions and flipped the media switch from price suppression to speculative bubble creation.

I'm guessing this one will be much bigger than April.  That time we went up over a period of months by a factor of 25, crashed to 20% of peak, and settled at 40% of peak.  Those who bought at $10, sold over $200, bought at $50, and sold again over $100 made a fortune on the April bubble crash.

The bubble of 2014 started its run up around $140, so with ordinary market manipulations we might expect it to reach $3500 at the top, crash below $700 at the bottom, and settle around $1400.  However, if the media can successfully recruit some hedge fund managers into the speculation, and get the ETF approved so people can invest from their retirement accounts, the peak could be much, much higher than that.

They have already started working on it.  Bitcoin was endorsed by a top hedge fund manager on 10/24, right when the news articles started turning positive.  I'm betting we'll get a lot more endorsements from respected money managers over the coming months.

Pretty soon the media will be putting pressure on the SEC to approve the ETF.  We're going to see major price increases when it's approved, and possibly on the day it goes live, perhaps starting the period of exponential growth.  Then, when it appears that there is no stopping it, that's when the super rich will cash out.

How to take advantage?  All in for now.  Start trimming and placing low buy orders around $10,000, or when you see exponential growth with no corrections, or when everyone agrees that the next stop is the moon.

However, if the dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency, you might never need to cash out to fiat at all.

[Valerian77]

Too many members here might have taken drugs that push up their fantasy.

Please read this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=321720.msg3465538#msg3465538
And the follow up posts where I did some analysis on the fair market value of BTC.

And think about the probable risk that everything takes long time because goverment, finance industry and some other lobbyists will try to destroy Bitcoin. E.g. the US administration can simply put the 144 kBTC into the market - then they will destroy Bitcoin reputation for some time for sure.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Too many members here might haven drugs that push up their fantasy.

Please read this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=321720.msg3465538#msg3465538
And the follow up posts where I did some analysis on the fair market value of BTC.

And think about the probable risk that everything takes long time because goverment, finance industry and some other lobbyists will try to destroy Bitcoin. E.g. the US administration can simply put the 144 kBTC into the market - then they will destroy Bitcoin reputation for some time for sure.

Haven = have taken?  Sure you aren't the guy on drugs?

Fair market value: how bout we agree none of us really know.  We each have a guess, and we'll see in the future who gets it right.

144 kBTC on the market --> yes please !  (but at a time that I am online)

[justusranvier]

Pretty soon the media will be putting pressure on the SEC to approve the ETF.  We're going to see major price increases when it's approved, and possibly on the day it goes live, perhaps starting the period of exponential growth.  Then, when it appears that there is no stopping it, that's when the super rich will cash out.

They won't stay super rich making mistakes like that.

The endgame for Bitcoin is to replace the Dollar, and the Euro, and become the currency that people "cash out" into.

In this game, the last person to hold fiat is the loser.

[jzcjca00]

Pretty soon the media will be putting pressure on the SEC to approve the ETF.  We're going to see major price increases when it's approved, and possibly on the day it goes live, perhaps starting the period of exponential growth.  Then, when it appears that there is no stopping it, that's when the super rich will cash out.

They won't stay super rich making mistakes like that.

The endgame for Bitcoin is to replace the Dollar, and the Euro, and become the currency that people "cash out" into.

In this game, the last person to hold fiat is the loser.

In the long term, hopefully, you are right.  However, in the short term, market manipulators can make a lot of money by swapping in and out, causing bubbles and crashes.  This is not going to be a smooth transition.

[rpg]

you should look into the geopolitical war going on in the pacific. That rock aka island being claimed by both chinese and japanese is just the tip of the iceberg. The US in august announced the plans to preemptive strike china with nukes. This week the chinese replied announcing their nuclear subs fleet can strike any city in the US. None of this is making the 6 PM news of course but any search on the geopolitical think tank sites will keep you up to date. So yes, is possible for BTC to run like crazy based on geopolitical happenings, remember, BTC is a store of value just like gold

[gripflierGO]

And think about the probable risk that everything takes long time because goverment, finance industry and some other lobbyists will try to destroy Bitcoin. E.g. the US administration can simply put the 144 kBTC into the market - then they will destroy Bitcoin reputation for some time for sure.

It wouldnt be first crash. The good thing about crash is - you can buy cheap.

[justusranvier]

However, in the short term, market manipulators can make a lot of money by swapping in and out, causing bubbles and crashes.  This is not going to be a smooth transition.

Of course they can do this, and probably will. I'm just saying they will lose in the long term.

The ones that try this will end up being the bagholders who are holding massive quantities of fiat right when the rest of the world decides they don't want it any more.

[dnaleor]

Maybe there is a chance that it could happen in a few years. Not this year, though.

early next year?

I think if we break the ATH, which could be this month (who knows), then anything is possible. I guess there are only 60 or so days left of this year... so yeah, $1,000 would be a Christmas miracle

[ArticMine]

what do you guys consider to be a whale nowadays?

Maybe >10 000 BTC?

>BTC1.000 IMHO.

My definition would be Vladimir club membership namely > 2100 BTC

[Baitty]

I would appreciate the people stating that it will and won't to actually give a explanation. Then people like me who aren't very intelligent can understand what you guys are predicting and why.

[haightst]

what do you guys consider to be a whale nowadays?

Maybe >10 000 BTC?

>BTC1.000 IMHO.

My definition would be Vladimir club membership namely > 2100 BTC

BTC correction to sub 100ish!


*edit* i was wrong broke 250 we look to be gearing UP!!!+/\+ 

[vokain]

what do you guys consider to be a whale nowadays?

Maybe >10 000 BTC?

>BTC1.000 IMHO.

My definition would be Vladimir club membership namely > 2100 BTC

so 2100 in the orderbooks, or 2100 in possession is a whale?

[muyuu]

Maybe there is a chance that it could happen in a few years. Not this year, though.

early next year?

I think if we break the ATH, which could be this month (who knows), then anything is possible. I guess there are only 60 or so days left of this year... so yeah, $1,000 would be a Christmas miracle

 

It's not even December yet, m8.

[haightst]

Maybe there is a chance that it could happen in a few years. Not this year, though.

early next year?

I think if we break the ATH, which could be this month (who knows), then anything is possible. I guess there are only 60 or so days left of this year... so yeah, $1,000 would be a Christmas miracle

https://i.imgur.com/1Dkqa9m.png

 

It's not even December yet, m8.

TO THE MOON? LMAO 

[Birdy]

It's not even December yet, m8.

And it's not a bubble yet

[gaston909]

Nice pic!

[dnaleor]

Nice pic!

thx 

I think i will print it and give it as a christmas card to my bitcoin friends

[romerun]

how soon ? like in 2 weeks(tm) ?

[DoomDumas]

OK, but don't be the guy who chickens out and sells when the price crashes 80% on its way there, because that kind of rise will be gut-wrenchingly volatile.

Not more volatile than the run from 20 to 200.. even less..  20 to 200 we saw 10X increase, 200 to 1000 is just 5X increase..

Fasten your seatbelt !

[Amph]

much easy to rise with low values, than bigger ones, you know....

[jzcjca00]

much easy to rise with low values, than bigger ones, you know....

I think the bigger investors feel more comfortable investing in things with a higher price.  Penny stocks typically perform poorly compared to some of those that have grown fast and not split.  Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, at $172,651 per share, springs to mind.

Big investors are the ones who will take Bitcoin to the moon.

[wachtwoord]

much easy to rise with low values, than bigger ones, you know....

I think the bigger investors feel more comfortable investing in things with a higher price.  Penny stocks typically perform poorly compared to some of those that have grown fast and not split.  Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, at $172,651 per share, springs to mind.

Big investors are the ones who will take Bitcoin to the moon.

BRK.A and BRK.B shares trade in tandem and BRK.B shares aren't expensive individually so that doesn't show anything.

IMO BRK.A should trade at a premium btw as BRK.B shares lack voting rights.

[vokain]

much easy to rise with low values, than bigger ones, you know....

I think the bigger investors feel more comfortable investing in things with a higher price.  Penny stocks typically perform poorly compared to some of those that have grown fast and not split.  Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, at $172,651 per share, springs to mind.

Big investors are the ones who will take Bitcoin to the moon.

BRK.A and BRK.B shares trade in tandem and BRK.B shares aren't expensive individually so that doesn't show anything.

IMO BRK.A should trade at a premium btw as BRK.B shares lack voting rights.

at the same time though, one or two shares of BRK.A don't really mean you have voting power.

[wachtwoord]

at the same time though, one or two shares of BRK.A don't really mean you have voting power.

A right to do something which is both valuable and transferable has value. So, there should be a premium. Someday someone is going to want to acquire voting rights is BRK.

How well did those funny shares perform last year ? (I mean : more or less than 1000% ?)

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BRK-A+Interactive#symbol=brk-a;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

[phlogistonq]

I think if we break the ATH, which could be this month (who knows), then anything is possible. I guess there are only 60 or so days left of this year... so yeah, $1,000 would be a Christmas miracle

Dude, it is only the 4th of this month and we may well break ATH this very evening.
During the last stages of the april 'bubble' we were doubling in price every few days.

I think you are underestimating what is about to happen.

[wobber]

I think if we break the ATH, which could be this month (who knows), then anything is possible. I guess there are only 60 or so days left of this year... so yeah, $1,000 would be a Christmas miracle

Dude, it is only the 4th of this month and we may well break ATH this very evening.
During the last stages of the april 'bubble' we were doubling in price every few days.

I think you are underestimating what is about to happen.

What is about to happen? Going to 350 and back, that's all.

[jzcjca00]

I think if we break the ATH, which could be this month (who knows), then anything is possible. I guess there are only 60 or so days left of this year... so yeah, $1,000 would be a Christmas miracle

Dude, it is only the 4th of this month and we may well break ATH this very evening.
During the last stages of the april 'bubble' we were doubling in price every few days.

I think you are underestimating what is about to happen.

What is about to happen? Going to 350 and back, that's all.

It depends on whether hedge funds start taking "small" positions, whether we get some mechanism like the Winklevoss EFT which would allow individuals to invest money in their retirement accounts, and whether the China explosion is actual buying interest or just day trading gone wild.  These are things that could add rocket fuel to the fire.

[haightst]

Maybe there is a chance that it could happen in a few years. Not this year, though.

early next year?

I think if we break the ATH, which could be this month (who knows), then anything is possible. I guess there are only 60 or so days left of this year... so yeah, $1,000 would be a Christmas miracle

https://i.imgur.com/1Dkqa9m.png

 

It's not even December yet, m8.

$BTC BOOMING NOW!!!!

[Tirapon]

This doesn't seem to have been bumped yet...

Good prediction OP.

[wachtwoord]

Just out of curiosity. Vladimir, how much do you think that price will be in 2020?

For several reasons I doubt you are able to messure BTC in USD in 2020, so I think you need to redefine your question.

What I meant was in todays purchasing power of dollars.

This. Can someone put this in some sticky? When dealing with monopoly money (fiat) we always mean in today's purchasing power and not tomorrows inflated variant. You'd think this'd be natural for people that are into Bitcoin ....

[aminorex]

much easy to rise with low values, than bigger ones, you know....

I think the bigger investors feel more comfortable investing in things with a higher price.  Penny stocks typically perform poorly compared to some of those that have grown fast and not split.  Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, at $172,651 per share, springs to mind.

Big investors are the ones who will take Bitcoin to the moon.

BRK.A and BRK.B shares trade in tandem and BRK.B shares aren't expensive individually so that doesn't show anything.

IMO BRK.A should trade at a premium btw as BRK.B shares lack voting rights.

Until 2011 BRK.B was 3000 per share and did well.  BRK.B split 50:1 due to technicals of an acquisition, not because the stock was undervalued.

[piramida]

I think if we break the ATH, which could be this month (who knows), then anything is possible. I guess there are only 60 or so days left of this year... so yeah, $1,000 would be a Christmas miracle

Dude, it is only the 4th of this month and we may well break ATH this very evening.
During the last stages of the april 'bubble' we were doubling in price every few days.

I think you are underestimating what is about to happen.

What is about to happen? Going to 350 and back, that's all.

Surprised that wobber, who is here since like 2010, is so pathetically wrong in every prediction he made so far Even a monkey would've learned a little looking at bitcoin chart for three years