Chances of $150 again

[RationalSpeculator]

Numbers like $100 and $50 are NEVER going to happen again unless bitcoin dies.  There's just no way to support it.

You sound way too confident here.

You might be proven right but your estimation of the probability is way off since it is only half the current price (little more). That is - always - possible in bitcoin, with reasonable probability simply because it has happened many times in the past, even when bitcoin was alive and well.  

It's possible when the current level is wildly above the adoption curve.  This $250 is a much stronger $250 than the $266 in April.  And the $120 last month was desperately low compared to the curve.  And then a billion Chinese people got on board.

What adoption curve do you mean?

I've never seen this curve that was low compared to $120 last month. Please draw me that line  

I get the impression you are just making stuff up here on the go though.  

Therefore, and therefore only, I still prefer Bitchick!

[reactor]

Numbers like $100 and $50 are NEVER going to happen again unless bitcoin dies.  There's just no way to support it.

You sound way too confident here.

You might be proven right but your estimation of the probability is way off since it is only half the current price (little more). That is - always - possible in bitcoin, with reasonable probability simply because it has happened many times in the past, even when bitcoin was alive and well.  

It's possible when the current level is wildly above the adoption curve.  This $250 is a much stronger $250 than the $266 in April.  And the $120 last month was desperately low compared to the curve.  And then a billion Chinese people got on board.

What adoption curve do you mean?

I've never seen this curve that was low compared to $120 last month. Please draw me that line  

I get the impression you are just making stuff up here on the go though.  

Therefore, and therefore only, I still prefer Bitchick!

Just don't forget this is all a commodity market, this recent uptick in price says nothing in regards to increased merchant adoption, increased transactions, etc.  So while this pricing level is supported, the only thing supporting it is the excitement of all the new folks piling on.  There are a lot of people who are buying at > $200 who will be pretty miffed if a walrus drops a bunch of coin and they lose the sparkle in their eye for the epic rise of BTC.  Same thing happened in April, huge excitement and then people were digging graves for BTC a few weeks after they hopped on board.  Now we're here again with no apparent reason short of excitement.  And excitement always gets corrected.

Or to be more specific, excitement is awesome for the folks who are holding, but for many there is a point where the financial reality outweighs the "moon" potential and the desire to cash out sinks in.  Net result is either whales get larger or new buyers "luck out" and "buy in cheap".  Reality is that after a while folks aren't going to want to purchase mBTC amounts because the cost of ownership or adoption is too high without any real benefit, i.e., there isn't much you can buy with BTC and everyone out there still pegs BTC against an actual fiat value for any physical purchase, so the BTC price will always be an "exchange" value for what the real price is.  So in that case, why jump on board for your $260USD/1BTC with exchange and transfer values attached if you could instead take your $260 and go directly to *any* store to make a purchase? 

BTC has not proven itself as a currency, and like previous boom/bust cycles there is a theoretical wall for adoption because there are only so many people who will "buy in" to the market.  The alternative, sadly, is we see a massive consolidation of BTC into very few hands, leading to the same problems we see in the current global economy.  And then people move on so that the whales can have a whale party and everyone else finds something not corrupted by the influx of massive amounts of fiat and the dreams being sold.

[rpietila]

Possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

We're in a bubble. When it pops, it gets us to 150.

Bubble pop takes us to 2x the previous ATH:

$1 -> $32 -> $2
$32 -> $266 -> $60
$266 -> ?

[BitchicksHusband]

Possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

We're in a bubble. When it pops, it gets us to 150.

Bubble pop takes us to 2x the previous ATH:

$1 -> $32 -> $2
$32 -> $266 -> $60
$266 -> ?

Finally, someone who understands logarithms.

[Wekkel]

Possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

We're in a bubble. When it pops, it gets us to 150.

Bubble pop takes us to 2x the previous ATH:

$1 -> $32 -> $2 : factor 32 | factor 16
$32 -> $266 -> $60 : factor 8 | factor 4
$266 -> ? $530 -> below $530 (undervalued) (decrease of factors with four)

FTFY

[RationalSpeculator]

Possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

We're in a bubble. When it pops, it gets us to 150.

Bubble pop takes us to 2x the previous ATH:

$1 -> $32 -> $2
$32 -> $266 -> $60
$266 -> ?

+1

This would be more complete:
$1 -> $32 -> $2   (x32)
$32 -> $266 -> $60   (x8)
$266 -> $  ?   -> $520  

Take off 2 much smaller (x8) as take off 1 (x32). Will take off 3 also be much smaller than take off 2, or is take off 2 just not complete yet?

That would give:
$1 -> $32 -> $2   (times 32)
$32 -> $ ? -> $60   (times ? )

$60 still possible after going to $500?

[Tzupy]

60$ after 500$ probably not, but 60$ after 272$ is possible.
Right now, a 50k BTC dump would take the price down to 140$, and that would be just phase 1.

[Birdy]

Math

Ehh...math. Make it go away! Here take my opinion instead!

(That doesn't mean that I think this Math prooves anything, there are too much variables in this game to answer it with a simple math equation ^^)

[thezerg]

Possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

We're in a bubble. When it pops, it gets us to 150.

Bubble pop takes us to 2x the previous ATH:

$1 -> $32 -> $2
$32 -> $266 -> $60
$266 -> ?

why pick 32 as the beginning?  picking 7 (pirate dump bottom) or 10 (Nov bottom before the unbroken increase) makes much more sense.

EDIT: ah ok, he's picking the prior ATH as the beginning.  Interesting but doesn't really capture the full bull market phase

[wopwop]

next high will be $550

in january

[BitchicksHusband]

Those BTC10,000 walls on MtGox are now down to 3,000. And we're still at $258.

[terman45x]

Those BTC10,000 walls on MtGox are now down to 3,000. And we're still at $258.

But at MtGox any price is good to buy the BTC and withdraw these out 

[Tzupy]

Math

Ehh...math. Make it go away! Here take my opinion instead!

(That doesn't mean that I think this Math prooves anything, there are too much variables in this game to answer it with a simple math equation ^^)

Misquoting others is not fair play. You have won my Ignore, please reciprocate.

[Birdy]

Please ignore me back.

Alright, Mr Wavebear who didn't get the joke, I know what 90% of your posts say anyway.
They say "Bitcoin will crash hard" and some subsubsubsubsub-wave nonsense.


No misquote here:

The 7th November might be even more interesting, if we reach the peak today and then crash very hard.  

I was wrong in my recognition of the sub-sub-sub waves, the third and most powerful was yet to come, and nicely it climbed,
especially in China. I should have trusted the theory about it, but to me the panic buyers seemed exhausted on Gox.
Anyway, China led this and I should have looked at their charts more. The sub-sub-sub-waves on Gox were difficult to recognize, and
the drop in market indicators didn't mean in this case the large drop at the end of the sub-sub-wave, but an intermediary drop
between sub-sub-sub-waves 2 and 3. What I am expecting is that once the 3rd sub-sub-sub-wave is depleted, the panic sellers
will see the last chance to sell on the rebound, and that should trigger a large drop, as sub-sub-sub-wave 4. That's my interpretation
of what just happened and might happen soon, but we'll see...

It can't be 1000$ and it can't be 1$, stop posting extreme views. This is going to a new ATH and then a massive crash.
The new ATH can't be 1000$, but could be over 300$,  and the crash can't go down to 1$, but it could be below 100$.

The drop is imminent, but it remains to be seen if there will be 3 drops in relatively quick succession or just 1 followed by a slow recovery.

[BitchicksHusband]

Please ignore me back.

Alright, Mr Wavebear who didn't get the joke, I know what 90% of your posts say anyway.
They say "Bitcoin will crash hard" or it will go up and some subsubsubsubsub-wave nonsense.


No misquote here:

The 7th November might be even more interesting, if we reach the peak today and then crash very hard.  

I was wrong in my recognition of the sub-sub-sub waves, the third and most powerful was yet to come, and nicely it climbed,
especially in China. I should have trusted the theory about it, but to me the panic buyers seemed exhausted on Gox.
Anyway, China led this and I should have looked at their charts more. The sub-sub-sub-waves on Gox were difficult to recognize, and
the drop in market indicators didn't mean in this case the large drop at the end of the sub-sub-wave, but an intermediary drop
between sub-sub-sub-waves 2 and 3. What I am expecting is that once the 3rd sub-sub-sub-wave is depleted, the panic sellers
will see the last chance to sell on the rebound, and that should trigger a large drop, as sub-sub-sub-wave 4. That's my interpretation
of what just happened and might happen soon, but we'll see...

It can't be 1000$ and it can't be 1$, stop posting extreme views. This is going to a new ATH and then a massive crash.
The new ATH can't be 1000$, but could be over 300$,  and the crash can't go down to 1$, but it could be below 100$.

The drop is imminent, but it remains to be seen if there will be 3 drops in relatively quick succession or just 1 followed by a slow recovery.

FTFY

[muyuu]

LOL at the "drop is imminent"

[HappyBitCoinUser]

Dropped $300 in a few hours, will probably see $140 price later today. Sell now while you can, don't be last person and take a loss.

[Feri22]

Dropped $300 in a few hours, will probably see $140 price later today. Sell now while you can, don't be last person and take a loss.

Oh my god, you are writing this in almost every topic you are trying so hard...what is your nickname on trollbox on btc-e? 

[Sage]

Short of a completely unexpected fatal flaw in Bitcoin, we'll never see $150 again.

[antimattercrusader]

You think we'll ever see $150/coin again?

Doubtful