If it's a bubble, it's less likely to pop this time...

[malevolent]

... and even if it does, it won't crash as low as last time.

The June 2011 (hack) and April 2013 (overloaded by the influx of new users) crashes were both a result of the centralization of trade on one exchange — Mt.Gox.

Were it not for Mt.Gox's unpreparedness or incompetence the price would very likely continue to grow.

Less than 40% of fiat <-> BTC exchanges is now occurring on Mt.Gox, so even if they screw something up again, it is likely the price will not be affected as much.
Same goes for other exchanges.

[dalexc]

Bubbles by their very definition pop. Now when the crash takes place how far it falls is completely different story. However, BTC is up over 75% or so in just the past few days alone. That's bubble territory. Be wise. Trade it or hold it. Just don't think cowardly and run away from it.

[wobber]

If you take only 10% of the coins transactioned today on MtGox and short them, you'd push price into the 160-170 area.

And if you do that, others will short short as well. Boom Bubble! Boom!

[windjc]

Everyone is running around screaming "Bubble! Bubble!"

But even if the market "corrects" and goes down, that's NOT a bubble!  A bubble is expotential growth curves. Look at April. The last hand full of days were increasingly verticle and the day the "crash" happened there was a crazy verticle high first.

Right now, everyone is looking for the market to do the exact same thing. But if we are in a real bubble, then we are at the early stages of it and it will only reach it's high when everyone is aghast at high how it got this time. Just like in April. Which means we have to go up much higher than 266 and with some daily increases YET seen in the history of BTC exchanges. If we scream up to 400 or 500 in the next couple of weeks, then you can scream "Bubble! Bubble!"  But increasing $20 in a day on MtGox doesnt make a bubble. Even if it happens a few days in a row. Sorry. That's just called volatility.

[wobber]

Wouldn't it be funny if people screaming "Bubble!", including me, will see $500-$700 bitcoin in the next month or so?

Imagine the ridicule.

[bitcon]

like i said in another thread. it feels like the coins are distributed amongst many more investors than in 2011-2012.  the few whales that are left arent taking huge dumps that easily cause panic sells.

[johnyj]

If you take only 10% of the coins transactioned today on MtGox and short them, you'd push price into the 160-170 area.

And if you do that, others will short short as well. Boom Bubble! Boom!

The fact is, all those coins bought were gone for at least a couple of years and you won't find enough sell order out there after a while

And if price indeed crashed to 160-170 area, there are bunch of players who missed the opportunity this time will buy like crazy, so it jumps right back to the current level in 1-2 days

During this spring, such kind of fast crash followed by fast recover played at least 4-5 times before price eventually exploded towards $200, and only after the price jumped by 10 times, large amount of profit taking order will appear

[wobber]

If you take only 10% of the coins transactioned today on MtGox and short them, you'd push price into the 160-170 area.

And if you do that, others will short short as well. Boom Bubble! Boom!

The fact is, all those coins bought were gone for at least a couple of years and you won't find enough sell order out there after a while

And if price indeed crashed to 160-170 area, there are bunch of players who missed the opportunity this time will buy like crazy, so it jumps right back to the current level in 1-2 days

During this spring, such kind of fast crash followed by fast recover played at least 4-5 times before price eventually exploded towards $200, and only after the price jumped by 10 times, large amount of profit taking order will appear

I can agree price can recover quickly. But what do you mean by: "The fact is, all those coins bought were gone for at least a couple of year" ?

[MoreFun]

If you take only 10% of the coins transactioned today on MtGox and short them, you'd push price into the 160-170 area.

And if you do that, others will short short as well. Boom Bubble! Boom!

The fact is, all those coins bought were gone for at least a couple of years and you won't find enough sell order out there after a while

And if price indeed crashed to 160-170 area, there are bunch of players who missed the opportunity this time will buy like crazy, so it jumps right back to the current level in 1-2 days

During this spring, such kind of fast crash followed by fast recover played at least 4-5 times before price eventually exploded towards $200, and only after the price jumped by 10 times, large amount of profit taking order will appear

I can agree price can recover quickly. But what do you mean by: "The fact is, all those coins bought were gone for at least a couple of year" ?

Strong hands holding for a few years.

[freequant]

If it's a bubble, it's less likely to pop this time ... and even if it does, it won't crash as low as last time.

In other words, "this time it's different"?
Uh oh...

[MAbtc]

If it's a bubble, it's less likely to pop this time ... and even if it does, it won't crash as low as last time.

In other words, "this time it's different"?
Uh oh...

Yeah, been seeing a lot of "new paradigm" talk, although people appear to be conscious not to come right out and say it, literally. 

[theonewhowaskazu]

If it's a bubble, it's less likely to pop this time ... and even if it does, it won't crash as low as last time.

In other words, "this time it's different"?
Uh oh...

it doesn't have to be different. If it was the same as last time, percentage wise, we'll bubble up to about $2211 and then crash down to $450.

[wasserman99]

If it's a bubble, it's less likely to pop this time ... and even if it does, it won't crash as low as last time.

In other words, "this time it's different"?
Uh oh...

it doesn't have to be different. If it was the same as last time, percentage wise, we'll bubble up to about $2211 and then crash down to $450.

i think he's saying that this is becoming the prevailing sentiment and therefore bottom will fall out... i.e. big bull party then crash

[MaTachi]

If it's a bubble, it's less likely to pop this time ... and even if it does, it won't crash as low as last time.

In other words, "this time it's different"?
Uh oh...

Yeah, been seeing a lot of "new paradigm" talk, although people appear to be conscious not to come right out and say it, literally. 

People were chanting the very same thing during the April bubble. :-P

[donjoe]

Less likely to pop my ass. If anything, it's less likely to go as high as the last times because more and more hotheads have become pacified through severe disappointments followed either by quitting the game or learning to play it more wisely. If the 2011 bubble went up 7x in the last month before popping and the April 2013 bubble went up 5x over its last month, I expect the next bubble to be a rise of just 4x or even 3x over its last month of growth - this market is cooling down over the long term.

But "less likely to pop"? Bullshit. The only bubble that's less likely to pop is the one that's less of a bubble.

[somestranger]

Wouldn't it be funny if people screaming "Bubble!", including me, will see $500-$700 bitcoin in the next month or so?

Imagine the ridicule.

It is a bubble, but it's just beginning. Right now we're around $40 before the April bubble, IMO. $500 or more is definitely a possibility.

[malevolent]

   If it's a bubble, it's less likely to pop this time...
 
... and even if it does, it won't crash as low as last time.

 

Any ideas what will occur within the next few days?