Bitcoin Forum
June 19, 2024, 08:25:42 PM *
News: Voting for pizza day contest
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 [2] 3 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: What will the price of BTC be when 22M people want 1 BTC each?  (Read 4228 times)
Rygon
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 520
Merit: 500


View Profile
October 24, 2013, 02:14:21 PM
 #21

Wealth distibution in a system tends to look like a Pareto distribution where a smaller portion of folks own a large amount of the resourcel, and an even smaller function of those individuals own the majority of that resource set. For example, 20% of people might control 80% of the wealth, and 20% of those folks (4% of the population) control 80% of that wealth (64%) total, and so forth.

There's no reason to believe bitcoin won't be similarly distibuted, it's just a matter of whether it's 80/20, 90/10, 70/30, etc. It's already that way in Bitcoin. Satoshi controls about 1 million coins, there's a few individuals/groups that have several 100K of coins, then a slightly larger group that is over 10K (Vladimir club), and so on.
wachtwoord
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125


View Profile
October 24, 2013, 02:36:22 PM
 #22

What will the price of BTC be when 22 million people want 1 BTC each?


How far are we from this date?

Hmm...

That will never happen.

I will always want more than 1 Bitcoin Wink
joesmoe2012
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 882
Merit: 501


Ching-Chang;Ding-Dong


View Profile WWW
October 25, 2013, 04:40:36 AM
 #23

How many users do we currently have?

Check out BitcoinATMTalk - https://bitcoinatmtalk.com
rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036



View Profile
October 25, 2013, 06:24:19 AM
 #24

How many users do we currently have?
best guess is to look at downloaded and active clients. unless anyone has better ideas?

How much is this number?

In the other thread I referred to Silvervault customer data. There I have percentages of people who have had a position but sold out, and also people who have registered but never bought anything. Silvervault was opened 1.7.2010, which is eeriely similar to MtGox... Applying these percentages to the number of downloaded clients would be a fair estimate.

HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
viboracecata
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000


Varanida : Fair & Transparent Digital Ecosystem


View Profile
October 25, 2013, 06:25:45 AM
 #25

How many users do we currently have?


i really really wish we knew.

no way to be sure.

best guess is to look at downloaded and active clients. unless anyone has better ideas?



Maybe we already have 22M users.

iBuilding A Better Interneti
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

 
 █b
▐█=
║█
██                                         ¡▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄┌
██M                                  ╒▄▄▄▄█▀    ▂▂ ╙▀▀▆▄
██▌                                ╓, ,██╨      ▀▀▀    ╜▀█▌
███                                ▀▀██╙     ▄▄▄▄▄      ╓█L
█ █▌                            ▄▄▄▄█▀          └▀▀▀▀█Φ█▀"
█▌ █▄                            ██▀           ▄█▀
▐▌  ▀▌                       ▀▄██▀            ▄▀
▐█     ▂▂▂                ▄  ▄█▀           ▄▄▀
 █▌  ╙▀▀▀▀▀█▄         ▄   ███▀     ▁▂▃▄▄▄█▀▀
  █▄        █▌    █▄  ██▄█▀        ▔▔╙▀▐█
   █▄       █▌ ▀▀████▀▀▀               ▐▌
    ▀█     █▀                          ▐▌
     ╙█▄  ▄▌                        ╓█ ▐█
       └▀██  ╓▄▄µ╓▄▄µ            ,▄█▀┘  █▌    ▄▄ ╓▄▄µ
         ██▄█▀▀███▀▀█▄       ╓▄▄█▀▀      ▀█▄█▀▀▀██▄╙▀█▄▄
          ▀╙    ▀▀▀  ▀▀▀  ▀▀▀▀╙           `      "▀▀  └╙
You Can See Me Now, Hi :}
VARANIDA

 
 
 
 
               ▄██   ▄███▄
              ▄███████  ██
              ██    ▀████▀
             ██
  ▄▄  ▄▄█████████████▄▄  ▄▄
▄███████████████████████████▄
█████████████████████████████
▀███████    █████    ███████▀
  ▀█████    █████    █████▀
   ███████████████████████
    █████▄  ▀▀▀▀▀  ▄█████
     ▀█████▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█████▀
        ▀▀█████████▀▀
|Hello Again
GWhitePaperG
GAnn ThreadG
FNG
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 588
Merit: 500


View Profile
October 25, 2013, 10:03:04 AM
 #26

316,000 and rapidly rising by 1-2k a day at coinbase
Erdogan
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005



View Profile
October 25, 2013, 11:09:25 AM
 #27

21 Million people want 1 BTC = 1 BTC = $21 million

Right?

Right!!

Right??

Pretty obvious to me.

Right?

No, you can't know from that question. Here is another way. It works  since we are talking of money, which have no use value.

What will the price of BTC be when 21M people want enough BTC to buy a pair of shoes?

Then the answer is 1BTC is the value of one pair of shoes, currently about 500 yuan.

So when 210 million people wants the exact same thing, BTC = 5000 yuan.

Erdogan
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005



View Profile
October 25, 2013, 09:46:34 PM
 #28

21 Million people want 1 BTC = 1 BTC = $21 million

Right?

Right!!

Right??

Pretty obvious to me.

Right?

No, you can't know from that question. Here is another way. It works  since we are talking of money, which have no use value.

What will the price of BTC be when 21M people want enough BTC to buy a pair of shoes?

Then the answer is 1BTC is the value of one pair of shoes, currently about 500 yuan.

So when 210 million people wants the exact same thing, BTC = 5000 yuan.



That guy just posted in my thread so he could quote himself. He failed to change accounts. Just place him on ignore.

Maybe, just answering the question in the title. You know, every time you buy something, you marginally raise the price of the type of thing you would buy, and at the same time you marginally lower the price of money (expressed in any good). That is why the value of money rise, when users want to hold money.
rocks
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1153
Merit: 1000


View Profile
October 25, 2013, 11:11:55 PM
Last edit: October 26, 2013, 12:49:54 AM by rocks
 #29

I understand the question, and it does not have an easy answer.

This thread is imho a quality read, concerning the distribution of bitcoins.

A large percent of the most active forum members have very high bitcoin balances and no intention to sell them. This must be taken into account when considering the situation that 20 million people want in. A really large slice of the cake is taken by the big holders.

It is mathematically improbable, not only to have more than 21 million holders of BTC1, but actually to have even 2 million such holders! To have more than 5 million is flat out impossible if free market remains and the large holders are not coerced out of their holdings.

Goat, I know the proof of my findings is not yet there in an unrefutable form, but the fact remains.

What comes to the topic, an easy estimate is ofter better than a difficult one (extrapolate):
year end - users - price
2009 - 20
2010 - 200 - 0.5
2011 - 2000
2012 - 20k
2013 - 200k - 500
2014 - 2M
2015 - 20M - 50k.

It is not inconceivable that when 22 million people have some bitcoins, one goes for $50k.

Just imagine when Bitcoin goes mainstream and 5% of the world's population (400M people) want to use bitcoin. Where is the price then?

The answer to the OP is no price will allow for 21M people to own at least 1 BTC, from the simple fact that there are many people who currently own more than 1 BTC and will always own at least a few coins. For 21M people to own BTC means that many will have to settle for having much less than 1.0 BTC in total. This is why the price has so much room to grow...
windjc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070


View Profile
October 25, 2013, 11:24:21 PM
 #30

21 Million people want 1 BTC = 1 BTC = $21 million

Right?

Right!!

Right??

Pretty obvious to me.

Right?

No, you can't know from that question. Here is another way. It works  since we are talking of money, which have no use value.

What will the price of BTC be when 21M people want enough BTC to buy a pair of shoes?

Then the answer is 1BTC is the value of one pair of shoes, currently about 500 yuan.

So when 210 million people wants the exact same thing, BTC = 5000 yuan.



That guy just posted in my thread so he could quote himself. He failed to change accounts. Just place him on ignore.

What is all this silliness about me forgetting to change accounts? That doesn't even make sense. I just thought this thread was ridiculous, so I commented in it with complete absurdity.  "21 Million people want 1 BTC = 1 BTC = $21 million" doesn't make any sense. Just like this thread.

And then I just commented on my own absurd equation by calling it "ridiculous."

I swear, the # of tin foil hats around here completely disrupts everyones since of satire and sarcasm.

So, right, go ahead and ignore me, so you can better pick up that radio signal.
Loki8
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 146
Merit: 100


View Profile
October 26, 2013, 01:07:50 AM
 #31

What will the price of BTC be when 22 million people know that bitcoin is not gold and that there are many altcoins which work exactly like bitcoin?

What will the price of BTC be when the major exchanges like MtGox, Btcchina & co. add other coins on their platform?
joesmoe2012
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 882
Merit: 501


Ching-Chang;Ding-Dong


View Profile WWW
October 26, 2013, 02:16:16 AM
 #32

The price will be 7.

Check out BitcoinATMTalk - https://bitcoinatmtalk.com
leannemckim46
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 420
Merit: 250


View Profile
October 26, 2013, 02:25:12 AM
 #33

They would get alt instead of BTC Smiley

██████████████████████
██████████████████████
██████████████████████
██████████████████████
██████████████████████
██████████████████████
██████████████████████
██████████████████████
██████████████████████
██████████████████████
██████████████████████
██████████████████████
██████████████████████
██████████████████████
RISE
rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036



View Profile
October 26, 2013, 08:16:09 AM
 #34

What will the price of BTC be when 22 million people know that bitcoin is not gold and that there are many altcoins which work exactly like bitcoin?

What will the price of BTC be when the major exchanges like MtGox, Btcchina & co. add other coins on their platform?

Why is gold much more valuable than silver, despite that it has way less actual uses? Why is dollar more valuable than gold, even though everyone knows that it is a unit of unpayable debt from a bankrupt government?

Marketability. Salability. Hoardability.

You can use dollar everywhere, whereas gold you must sell and convert, and that happens differently in every country, involving hassle and fees. With silver, the situation is pathetic, and despite being the layman's money for 25 centuries, it does not function as currency anywhere today.

In The Art of War, Sun Tzu tells that 50 kilograms of silver is enough for upkeep of a 100,000-strong army for one day. Today that same amount has a purchasing power of mere $35k. I venture to guess that 35M is required today. This is an illustration that monetary elements' valuation can change over time when changes in their monetary properties occur.

As a investment silver merchant, I am very much aware that silver is "poor man's gold". For a rich man the difficulty of obtaining a large holding of silver is prohibitive. Buffett bought silver in the 1990s, and it took years for him to receive it, for the sellers had difficulty procuring it from the market. Silver price and silver lease rates shot up 50%. He was instructed to sell the holding before it caused more disruption to the silver market. Then I know a person who owned a few million$ worth of silver, and had to do it via banks due to the lach of physical merchants. He too was swindled out of his holdings. I am pretty much the "highest" guy who can own silver free of government intervention. Even if this wasn't the problem, the problem is the fact that buying and selling so much is a large international operation. Even for people less wealthy than me, silver is often too much of a hassle especially as most of its attributes are found in gold, you essentially trade some leverage for marketability. The largest practical silver holding is less than $100k and do not expect to trade it because dealers will suck you dry. Something that sucks so bad in hoardability cannot be money. (Silvervault is my creation that is designed to empower physical silver to work as money; currently it has not succeeded in the main mission but is well functioning as a depository.)

Gold fares a little (2 orders of magnitude Smiley ) better, because you can pack 100 times the value of silver in the same space. Market does not collapse if you try to buy and sell $1 million worth of physical gold, it is always available (well not always, but that is again those behind-the-scenes things, which are not the main issue here). Even countries have gold reserves, but gold is currently so cheap that the largest players who want gold (China, Russia) cannot buy it from the market since the largest holders (international bankers) are not selling. Even a humble request to get back the gold that you own (Germany, from USA) is turned down. Finland knows better to not even ask for its reserves. (When Bank of Finland was questioned this, the answer was that they are happy that gold is safely stored in London and other places. My interpretation: no chance to ever see the gold.)

The basis of dollar's value is in its monetary attributes. If it was not so ubiquituos and accepted everywhere, I highly doubt that it would be able to reach its current dominance. After 150 years of dirty tricks, assassinations, coups, puppet governments, wars with millions of deaths, and the building of a socialist system that constitutes 50% of the economic activity, it has this role, though. Companies that produce stuff and have been profitable for decades in a row, do not enjoy the same credit rating and must pay higher interest. The reason is that companies are smaller and the marketability of their debt is thus weaker. Midsize corporations also have the political risk of running into adversities if they do not conform to the unwritten rules of their domicile, no matter how solid the business was. "Democratic" governments cannot default on their debts, this was by the way a major reason why England gained dominance in 1700s - interest rate was lower, boosting investment. In the continent, kings needed to pay more, since the successor did not always assume their debts.

That some good gains a monetary status (that it acts as money) is not an everyday occurrence. In very early times it has been hypothesized that salt and cattle were used as money. When metals became available, they became the money par excellence, not always available to the public due to their high price, but being the unit of value, medium of exchange in large purchases, and especially store of value. This has continued until present day, only in the 20th century has the common perception of what is money, changed from metal to numbers of an abstract unit.

That some good gains a dominant monetary status, does not happen in once per millennium. There is no explicit evidence that this has ever been occurred before the coercion-induced switch from gold to fiat in the 1900s. (It is debatable whether silver was dominant to gold prior to 1800s, because the values of their monetary stocks ("market caps") were in the same ballpark.) The reason why a money cannot gain dominance over another, is that a good money has the least possible inflation. To have a 1.2% inflation of gold today, the money supply would only about triple in 100 years. But if it grows so slowly, you never get started with your new money! There needs to be a stock to begin with, and it must grow at maximum very slowly.

Ripple is an example of model, where money supply is fixed, but distribution is according to the whims of a soviet.

Bitcoin is an example of model, where money supply is fixed, and distribution happens over more than 100 years according to a predetermined model where everyone can participate in a free market fashion.

Ripple has at times been more valuable than Bitcoin, so the jury is still out. If people continue to buy ripples and keep the exchange rate up, it does not matter how OpenCoin distributes the stash. But I doubt that the fad will last, because XRP as a currency is hardly any improvement over USD, and is currently a terrible underdog in acceptance. (Can you buy anything with XRP?)

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a genuine improvement over both gold and USD. It is the most hoardable, since you can store and move an arbitrary amount of wealth as easily as you buy a sandwich. It has transactional capabilities which, when fully implemented, outdo all that Visa and PayPal can even dream of in their dollar economy.

And it has a 2-year (2 orders of magnitude) lead over the nearest competitor, Litecoin. Even if you consider Litecoin to be technically superior to Bitcoin (I don't), it is a minor tweak and not a generational improvement. At present I cannot imagine anything which would be so much superior to Bitcoin than Bitcoin is to U.S. Dollar, and therefore it is not just improbable, but outright impossible that an altcoin would take over Bitcoin.

Summary: Nothing prevents the public from buying gold or even silver, if they like. Altcoins will remain in niche applications, but the market cap ratio between Bitcoin and best altcoin will be on average 50:1, as is the market cap ratio between gold and silver, its nearest competitor.

HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
freequant
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 770
Merit: 500


View Profile
October 26, 2013, 08:24:49 AM
 #35

What will the price of BTC be when 22 million people want 1 BTC each?
How far are we from this date?
Hmm...
By then, it would have become apparent that Bitcoin doesn't scale so the price should be close to 0.

wachtwoord
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125


View Profile
October 26, 2013, 09:10:11 PM
 #36

Even a humble request to get back the gold that you own (Germany, from USA) is turned down. Finland knows better to not even ask for its reserves. (When Bank of Finland was questioned this, the answer was that they are happy that gold is safely stored in London and other places. My interpretation: no chance to ever see the gold.)


Germany did good by asking because they US at least was forced to pay for the right to return the gold later. No this is not better than having the gold now but better than not having it AND not receiving a fee.
Sword Smith
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 286


Neptune, Scalable Privacy


View Profile WWW
October 26, 2013, 09:43:00 PM
 #37

What will the price of BTC be when 22 million people know that bitcoin is not gold and that there are many altcoins which work exactly like bitcoin?

What will the price of BTC be when the major exchanges like MtGox, Btcchina & co. add other coins on their platform?

Why is gold much more valuable than silver, despite that it has way less actual uses? Why is dollar more valuable than gold, even though everyone knows that it is a unit of unpayable debt from a bankrupt government?

Marketability. Salability. Hoardability.

(...)
It is always nice to read your long elaborations on monetary theory and history. Thank you for sharing!

hope4me
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 126
Merit: 100


View Profile
October 26, 2013, 09:54:27 PM
 #38

What will the price of BTC be when 22 million people know that bitcoin is not gold and that there are many altcoins which work exactly like bitcoin?



You suggest everyone will create his own altcoin? Then these altcoins will be worth nothing because no one will want exchange something for this

Loki8
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 146
Merit: 100


View Profile
October 26, 2013, 10:01:17 PM
 #39

Why is gold much more valuable than silver, despite that it has way less actual uses? Why is dollar more valuable than gold, even though everyone knows that it is a unit of unpayable debt from a bankrupt government?

Gold and silver have been money for almost 6000 years of history... Gold is a rare precious metal but also has unique properties. Gold is indispensable to science and technology because of its physical properties, it is highly reflective and malleable, it's an excellent conductor, it does not rust, tarnish or corrode, and gold does not dissolve in water or most acids. In 10,000 years, gold will still be gold, but bitcoin won't exist anymore.

The US held more gold than any other nation and it helps to give the world confidence and the US dollar credibility...

Even if you consider Litecoin to be technically superior to Bitcoin (I don't), it is a minor tweak and not a generational improvement.

Most People don't care if Litecoin is technically superior to Bitcoin or not. They just want the best coin to pump and dump... This is the sad reality.
vpitcher07
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 342
Merit: 250


View Profile
October 27, 2013, 12:04:58 AM
 #40

How many users do we currently have?


i really really wish we knew.

no way to be sure.

best guess is to look at downloaded and active clients. unless anyone has better ideas?



Maybe we already have 22M users.

No way, not even close. If we're at a million i'd be shocked.

Bitcoin: The currency of liberty
1HBJSf3Lm9i8KxjZ7fuoN9FJ8hniniFbv4
Pages: « 1 [2] 3 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!