I don't think what just happened has really sunk in with a lot of pre-order folks yet. You've seen a few people running for the exit in the case of KnC late October and November, some people starting to perk up their refund radar around Hashfast's delay, but mostly, still waiting. What can they do?
This isn't a bloodbath, this is mass miner genocide we've just witnessed. KnC delivered more hashrate than most, if not all, outsiders expected with batch 1. They (Sam) gave an estimate to CoinDesk in late June of 450 TH/s. It's looking easily like 2 PH/s+ just like the others. The closed order book probably caused even some experienced miners to underestimate the delivery. I personally had it pegged for 1.6 PH/s.
Hashfast delivers -sometime- in November. No unit will ROI in 90 days. If they are solvent, they bump basically every BJ order to 2 TH/s. This changes their batch 1 2.2 PH/s delivery into a 11.4 PH/s delivery. Cointerra delivers 2.4 PH/s. Your 1 TH/s + mining farm, Sierra, whatever is now making zero point oh naught BTC per day. Plus KnC November, if there are still people trapped and/or waiting it out (there are, I guarantee it.) Maybe BFL even delivers their Cointerra Monarch early next year, who knows. Hasfast and Cointerra have second batches as well.
Even at sub $1/GH/s pricing, if even possible, Bitcoin prices are going to need to rally hard core to get more new money in mining rigs. Tenths of a Bitcoin per month will need to pay for mining gear. This is at least a 20 PH/s network without mass refunding/lawsuits/insolvency/violence in the meantime. These companies are not likely to go out of business right away; they didn't risk their own money in most cases - look at how well BFL has held on. They are going to deliver your miners and you are going to eat it. The network will be more secure. We (mostly) will all be more poor. ASIC companies will weather the storm sitting on fat stacks of cash, or simply cash out, having fleeced enough already. Bitcoin will rise, new money will come, and the cycle will repeat, in a milder fashion.
Here's my back of the napkin KnC Saturn ROI calcs for those who need to further counteract any anti-depressants they might be taking.
I had personally hoped, as I watched the HF order book build, that I had grossly overestimated KnC batch 1 hashrate. The results are in, and mining has turned into one UGLY game nearly overnight. Keep calm and carry on, as they say.
Nice post.
I'm a hobbyist miner and I personally don't find the situation all that tragic. Of course I didn't invest as much in mining gear as many others have. I bought my first ASIC gear with dollars and continued to buy more gear with BTC that I earned. Of course I'd have more BTC saved if I hadn't reinvested it.
But with BTC price rising now, I'm quite happy. And no, I don't buy into the whole "you'd be better off buying BTC instead of mining" theory. I tried that for a while and found it horribly boring. I'm not a 'buy-and-hold' kind of guy. I was more of a 'buy high, sell low' kind of guy, lol.
Anyways, I'm sitting out the next couple of rounds of this ASIC madness. I've had my rush of excitement and I'm now content to watch my BTC balance grow slowly and wait for my next poorly planned purchase to (hopefully) arrive... BFL (Cointerra?) Monarch. It was a 65nm trade-up for a late April order so I just traded one worthless order for another. Oh well, I'm not losing any sleep.
Btw, is the Monarch really going to be powered by a Cointerra chip or is that just a guess?
