POLL: Where are we now?

[RejectedBanana]

History rhymes, it never repeats.

Which time best rhymes with now?

[1713410829]

1713410829

[Canis Majoris]

History rhymes, it never repeats.

Which time best rhymes with now?

It is hard to say. If we draw analogies with what happened in December 2013 and through all 2014, we may still be in 2014 of sorts. On the one hand, if we reached the bottom at 6k, then we are in autumn of 2015, when Bitcoin got back to life. On the other hand, though, there were major rebounds in 2014 as well, and right we may witness its present-day analogy. In a nutshell, these analogies are overall meaningless simply because past performance is not indicative of future price moves.

[erre]

I think the right  answer is F

You can't predict market future from the past

[nc50lc]

But, the chorus has just ended And it will be silent till the Coda.

For Christ sake, the graph says nothing, there's no rhyme on it, just random zigzags. Please stop these "technical" analysis already.

You can't predict market future from the past

Perfect Quote. Give this guy a merit.

-edit-

After voting, I've seen a lot of votes for C.
So, people are still optimistic that bitcoin's price will reach higher heights sometime within this next few months, eh.

[Tyrantt]

Id say we've passed C point slightly or maybe somewhere passed B on the way of the next drop. Tho, somehow I'm quite aure we'll have one more drop before going up again, it's just to "early" for tbe price to jump significantly high in the next month.

[Pursuer]

none of the above, not because I don't have a prediction for bitcoin price after this point but because no matter what happens and no matter what that may look similar to, it still wouldn't be a repetition of the past.
just because some trend happened before it doesn't mean it will happen again.

the funny thing is, pretty soon none of these would matter at all. you will look back and see all these ups and downs like a dot on a bigger picture. the "boom" has not yet happened so this chart is like looking at 1 min chart and trying to predict the next year's price from it.

[talkbitcoin]

After voting, I've seen a lot of votes for C.
So, people are still optimistic that bitcoin's price will reach higher heights sometime within this next few months, eh.

people are always optimistic about bitcoin price but also whenever you ask a silly question you get silly answers

i say we are not in any of these points. things are going to be different this time. we are after a big rise and the follow up big dump so now things are going to be calmer without any major rise or fall for some time. maybe similar to B but i think it will be more of an upward slope than just fixed horizontal line.

[Cryptodaddy05]

I think we can say where we are ATM looking at the exponential chart of Bitcoin prices is that we’re at A or B or C where there was buying pressure supporting the bitcoin price after a crash from an ATH from speculative buying/FOMO. I don’t think we will get a three year wait to test the December ATH again, like happened after the ATH in December 2013 because bitcoin and crypto is now owned and traded and used by ~1% of the adult world population and institutional mainstream money is waiting to come in at about the 8K price so as that happens and more and blockchain and crypto become more user friendly and owned and used by more of the world population we should see the December ATH tested again either next quarter or in the second half of the year - before another crash and the cycle will go on ever upwards long term! So don’t want to choose option 4 or 5.

Can you pick 1 2 and 3?

[Cryptodaddy05]

In the end I picked B. And I’m an outlier!

Current results
A. April 2012 - 0 (0%)
B. Nov 2012 - 1 (8%)
C. Oct 2013 - 8 (61%)
D. Aug 2014 - 4 (31%)
E. Aug 2015 - 0 (0%)

Interesting - feeling lonely!

[hase0278]

History rhymes, it never repeats.

Which time best rhymes with now?

I think none is the best rhyme to whatever is happening now so I chose whatever option is the nearest(which is why I picked E). There is no option stating that we are in the phase marked with unknown but to be honest, it is the perfect rhyme for it(since it is nearing that point where it signals a bearish run but is unpredictable and no one can tell if it will really dump or not. The other choices are too implausible IMO.

[newwest]

It a good time to buy and most likely it should be like last quarter of 2017 where the price was so low that it reached till 18k and gave multiple times returns in couple of months itself. I feel we are in that zone and in coming months we might have multiple times returns if invested now.

[Hazir]

Why do people are still comparing graphs of the past to current situation of markets? There is no correlation and it is not the same.
So what that at some point in the past price graph looked the same as it is now? It was caused by totally different reasons.
If you seeking likeness and want to predict future price building your opinion of old charts you are not gonna succeed.

[Fuhre]

that ever happened in the past can not be equated with the present to predict the future. each year the price continues Take turns, we all also know that the price is very fluctuate. we can only Look forward to the future will be better than the previous times.

[BrewMaster]

since the current price is already more than half below the ATH and we have had a couple of drops already which were bigger than this one, i'd say we are somewhere around E where we may have some more drops but only small ones and generally there won't be a big rise only smaller ones and a slow rise instead.

[gentlemand]

Why do people are still comparing graphs of the past to current situation of markets? There is no correlation and it is not the same.
So what that at some point in the past price graph looked the same as it is now? It was caused by totally different reasons.
If you seeking likeness and want to predict future price building your opinion of old charts you are not gonna succeed.

There is one constant and it's the only one that really matters - human nature.

This bubble was slower but just as irrational as 2013. $3 Ripple? Sheesh.  

I know people hate that bubble chart but it's following how humans behave with these things and they never change. The numbers and the timing may get bigger but our little monkey brains don't.

People to attribute events to certain movements but other than short term reactions, the major overarching movements were going to happen anyway. Nothing was going to stop the 2014 deflation and indeed 2014 was bursting with incredible news. The price did what it was fated to do anyway.

As for where we are now in relation to previous bubbles, my guess is we're either having a breather for a larger one a la mid 2013 or we're still a little hungover but hopeful and misguided in early 2014.

[pereira4]

I think it rhymes with A, as in, we may stagnate for a while, we may get a ton of headlines of "Bitcoin is dead", just like the last bubble burst cycles. Once the price bottoms, the smartest of the money will be buying pretty much daily, stacking up on cheap coins. Anyone that's smart did that, specially through the E period which was clear that Bitcoin was never going to die, since it survived MtGox, and it can't get any worse than that ever again.

Sooner or later, FOMO will kick in again and the times of 4 figures a coin will be over forever. Then people will reminisce about the good ol times of sub5figures per BTC, wishing they bought back in.

[omonuyak]

No one can really predict were we are now but one can relate were we are now to what happened around 2014 March were bitcoin get dump in price as at was getting some recovering. We should also see this event as it has happened each year.we have had a very bad time in each of this year around January to April.

[Canis Majoris]

Why do people are still comparing graphs of the past to current situation of markets? There is no correlation and it is not the same.
So what that at some point in the past price graph looked the same as it is now? It was caused by totally different reasons.
If you seeking likeness and want to predict future price building your opinion of old charts you are not gonna succeed.

The reasons may be and in fact are quite different but people just love to draw analogies because it gives them peace of mind and a bit of comfort, sort of. In a nutshell, you only see what your eyes want to see. And if someone wants to see that Bitcoin is headed south, he will see exactly because this is what happened in 2014. Still, if he wants to find signs of optimism and future growth, he will find them too since this is what happened starting the second half of 2015.

[RejectedBanana]

You can't perfectly predict the future, no, but you can at least assign certain sentiments and probabilities.

There are many repeating fractals on this chart, which to me says there is some degree of predictability.  It is not merely random zig zags, this fucker is definitely trending up and I don't even need to squint to see that!

Nested within this exponential rise, there are a series of hyperbolic pops and drops of various scales.

The 5 points I plotted 'rhyme' with the current situation in the following way:

1. Hyperbolic rise
2. Sharp corrective bounce
3. Second sharp bounce to a lesser degree (we are here)

After each pop, the price either:

(A) goes sideways for a time before exponential rise and then sideways again (CONSERVATIVE BULL)
(B) rises slowly for a time before hyperbolic rise (MODERATE BULL)
(C) immediately verges into hyperbolic rise (PERMABULL)
(D) continues to decline for some time before bottoming out into exponential rise for some time (TERABEARA)
(E) bottoms out and continues exponential growth for a long time before going hyperbolic again (BULLISH)

I find it interesting the responses are pretty much split between the two extremes: hyberbolic rise or continued decline; Permabulls vs Terabearas.

But time will tell. And it will rhyme.

History rhymes, it never repeats.

Which time best rhymes with now?

[fabiorem]

We are in a bear market, but not like any of those you put in the pool.

A bear market can also mean a hybernation phase, where the price is always sidelining.