Less risk now then ever to buy Bitcoin?

[rpietila]

seizure of DPR's coins depresses me

Why? What's the worst thing they can do with those coins?

In my opinion they have three options:

1.) Destroy the coins -->less coins for everyone -->price goes up
2.) Keep the coins for a long time -->less coins for everyone -->price goes up
3.) Sell the coins -->weak hands panic -->cheap bitcoins for the rest (who probably will be fully aware that the sold coins are the FBI coins).

And as little as I like the US Government, it might still be better to have them own the coins compared to drug dealers and murder-for-hires.

+1. Once in a while the govt actually does its duty to find and punish murderers (assuming that the story is true).

[RationalSpeculator]

I am seeing several threads pop up discussing early adoption and there seems to be some envy from some of us that were not here a year or two ago.  However, having heard about Bitcoin over a year ago I remember feeling uneasy about investing anything in it at the time because of some of the risks back then.

Let's go back a bit and remember what it was like.  The exchanges were not stable. Remember all of the DDOS attacks?  The price was way more volatile (this was fun for speculators but that is about it) and there was no certainty whatsoever that Bitcoin would somehow not be shut down by the government.  I am sure there are even more risks than these.

Skip ahead.  Today most of these risks have diminished.  The exchanges are so much better (not perfect but improving!).  There are some regulations put into place that show that Bitcoin is not going to be shut down at least.  And now (this is the main reason I do not see Bitcoin going anywhere) wall street has it's eye on Bitcoin!  Once they start throwing money into it there will be no stopping it I believe.

So sure it costs more to buy one today, but it is less risky than it has ever been to do so.

What do you think?

I think you make very good analyses. Risk of government outlawing bitcoin has indeed gone down a lot in the West since 2012.

The question is, has value gone up already enough to represent that?

Long term I think absolutely not.

But short term I agree with:

The systemic risk of Bitcoin dropping to zero due to a government crackdown down is lower.
But the trading risk of loosing money by having to sell lower than you bought is extremely high right now since we are
1) on a down trend
2) nowhere close to a historical point of equilibrium
3) very far from the mean which, if you apply a mean reversion strategy, shouts "sell" pretty loudly.

Once the price as reverted to its pre-bubble level (~130), then yes you can consider that buying bitcoins is less risky than it used to be one year earlier in similar circumstances

I think being sufficiently invested is always important but having cash ready to buy between $60 and $130 an equal wise course of action.