Bitcoin in a triangle - Watch it closely

[TomCrypto]

Despite all the Bad/Good/Fake News Bitcoin is still in this triangle where the bottom purple line started one year ago in march 2017 (touched 4 times since) and the top red line started in December (touched 3 times since)



Two days ago, BTC hit the 8.85k coupled with the 9k level who acted like a strong resistance.

For now on, BTC could go retest the bottom of the triangle by touching the purple line.
If the purple line is broken we will have a great chance to go to the next support : 7k and then 5.9-6k.

But if we bounce we will go back to try to break the 8.85-9k resistance. If BTC manage to test this resistance we will witness a test of the next resistance at 10k (round number resistance) near the top of the triangle.
If it broke up we will go to the next fib resistance around 11k

This triangle will play out in the next 3 weeks, so i advised you to watch it closely and to put our order accordingly.


Update 26/03/2018 at 16:31 GMT:

We are currently testing the bottom of the triangle.
Next Hours/day are crucial!

Watch it if it break the purple line and confirmed it on the close of the daily bar below the line!




Update 29/03/2018 at 13:59 GMT:

Two days ago we broke  the triangle and confirmated with the daily candle.

We experienced then a drop from 8k to 7,4k where stand the next support between 7.5k - 7.0k.
We will now see if this support hold or not. If it doesn't hold we may go to the next strong support around 6k.
If the current support hold, we may try to renter the triangle, but it will be hard and may take a good news on cryptoworld to do it!

Good luck


Update 05/04/2018 at 14:20 GMT:

After breaking the previous triangle, bitcoin felt from 7,8k to 6,4k


We can now see the formation of a descending channel (two black lines) in which BTC is stucked for the moment.
I have also added to my chart the complete triangle between the green and red lines.
If BTC stays in this black channel, we will go to the next FIB support at 6k and to the bottom of the triangle (green line).
If we break the channel upward BTC may try to go to the upper part of the triangle.

Therefore watch this channel as well as this triangle to place our order accordingly.
Good luck


Update 09/04/2018 at 13:00 GMT:

BTC is still inside the descending channel between the two black lines.

Yesterday it touched the top of the channel but didn't break the resistance and therefore BTC price felt below 7k again.
We have to keep watching this descending channel and the target remains the same :

• If BTC stays in this black channel, we will go to the next FIB support at 6k and to the bottom of the triangle (green line).
  
• If we break the channel upward BTC may try to go to the upper part of the triangle

Update 20/04/2018 at 14:00 GMT:

BTC is currently struggling with a FIB resistance around 8,4 - 8,6k (blue dashed horizontal line)

If it doesn't succeed to past it, BTC will go to the previous FIB support at 7.7-7.9k in order to gather some new strengths.
IF it succeed in breaking this resistance, we will witness the test of the Red line which will be determinant for the future of BTC price for the next weeks. if the red line is broken upward this will send a strong signal and may put an end of the bearish trend we have seen lately.


Update 12/05/2018 at 22:00 GMT:

I don't have a lot of available time for crypto lately but I will just update a few lines and FIB resistance just to see how it will go.
I will try to explain later the following graph





Update 10/06/2018 at 22:00 GMT:

Today we the bottom line (pink one)n of the triangle described previously was broken downward and the fall was steep!



First support around 6600 second around 6400.

This break was initiated due to this news : https://cointelegraph.com/news/all-of-top-100-cryptocurrencies-see-red-amidst-cftc-price-manipulation-probe



Update 11/06/2018 at 20:00 GMT:

If I dezoomed my BTC chart I have also this "Baseline" in purple that form "kinda" an ascending channel. I Hope we won't go touch the purple line but this remains a possibility.




Update 24/06/2018 at 13:17 GMT:
I forget to update previously in this post but i did on my french post here where I stated that if the support at 6.4k don't hold we can go to 5,9k. And here we are...

BTC is actually in a descending channel (between the aqua and purple lines) and we are currently on a strong support at 5.9k which set the bottom of the big descending triangle between the light green and the red lines. BTC previoulsy tested 2 times this support in the past.

This 5.9k support could hold (unless we get a bad news) and i think we may have sideways mouvement this weekend before a small bounce on the beginning of the week and then a retest of the 5.9k support. But the sell pressure remains very high so it may break even without any catalyst.
The next support below are at 5.7k, 5,5k and 4.9-5k



Update 02/07/2018 at 19:07 GMT:
The previous support at 5.9k hold quite well and confirm that 5.9k is really a strong support.

BTC is currently hitting two resistances : the FIB one at 6.6k and the one formed by the top of the descending channel (between aqua and purple lines)



If we break the channel upward, the next stop will be at 6.8k FIB resistance and then at the 7.2k FIB which may be coupled with the red resistance line from the big triangle we are since December.
If 7200$ is broken it will may end the downtrend that we face since the beginning of the year but we are not here yet!

If we don't break the current resistance, BTC will go back to 6.4k support.

IMO, i don't think that BTC will break 6.6k today but i would love to be wrong

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[JanpriX]

Thanks for putting this out. It appears that almost all of the traders that publish their TA come into this conclusion and we could say that this is the market psychology for now. We've seen this support be tested a couple of times and it held its ground well in the past. The question for now is will this also hold in the coming days/weeks if we test it again (and it is most likely to happen)? We are also hitting new lower highs week by week producing a downward trend for BTC. The 3-week period that you provided will be very important for the market to decide if we will have the next huge run or be at the forest of despair in the coming months. 

[TomCrypto]

Even if it's hard to wait, for the moment this is the less risky move to do in my opinion (except if you are a day trader of course).
As you said JanpriX, the odds are strong that we will retest the bottom of the triangle very soon. Let's see what's happen and if what we will need to buy : Lambo or Kleenex !

[parobber]

Correct me if I'm mistaken but can you not draw a triangle on every chart by connecting the highs and lows? I agree with almost all of the analysis but that's just my thought, I'd be happy to be proven wrong or educated on this and what the basis behind it is.

[TomCrypto]

Indeed you can create a lot of triangle indeed But you have to find the lines that pass through several top/bottom to have an effeicient triangle.
I used this triangle since february on tradingview and it was perfect to predict the top of march 05 and the dip of 18 march.
But Technical Analysis is not always perfect ;p It's just a part of the trading process with fondamental analysis and market sentiment.

[pereira4]

Yeah I've been monitoring that line, it's a pretty nice one with many coincidences, so there is still hope that we are not in a bear market, but if we aren't able to stay above it, do you believe that $5700 double bottom will hold? some people say double bottoms are too rare in bitcoin, so who knows, maybe we go below $5700. This is good news for anyone wanting to accumulate more BTC long term in any case, but I would rather not see it happen, or maybe I do.. im not sure. I want more BTC than I want more USD so it could be good news.

[Tankdestroyer]

Indeed you can create a lot of triangle indeed But you have to find the lines that pass through several top/bottom to have an effeicient triangle.
I used this triangle since february on tradingview and it was perfect to predict the top of march 05 and the dip of 18 march.
But Technical Analysis is not always perfect ;p It's just a part of the trading process with fondamental analysis and market sentiment.

Using this is triangle for technical analysis indeed was good. What makes market unpredictable besides what was said in the OP is the unpredictability of bitcoin market itself. I somehow predicted that bitcoin will rise some time after block halving but I have never predicted it to go up to 15,000$+ and this time, I am speculating that we will see unpredictable prices in the next coming months. Such as an unbelievable dump or pump.

[Thirdspace]

... do you believe that $5700 double bottom will hold? some people say double bottoms are too rare in bitcoin, so who knows, maybe we go below $5700.
---snip---

If I understand it correctly, this means we won't see a price dip below $7500 again
and dropping below $6000 is even less likey to happen?
how do you predict the possible outcomes based on this technical?
do I read news and try guessing the movement, or watch the trade volume and weigh its direction

[okala]

Thank you for this analysis and I think it would help some of us that buy bitcoin above  $10,000 to keep hope that our break even level will be breaking very soon. This channel is going to last until we break the upper resistance level which is going to put us on the part of bullish trends we have been having thus.

[Raimy]

I have a chart with a triangle on it too, but my trendline starts a bit earlier than yours does. In fact it starts about when Bitcoin was first listed on Mt Gox. I had to overlay Mt Gox early charts with later ones for Binfinex to get a long enough time line, but getting back to the point, my triangles low shows we could hit about $2,500 before breaking the real long-term trendline.

[BillCoin]

I don't like your vision as it's completely based on analyzing the graph.
Remember that you are dealing here with a brand new asset that is being completely controlled by huge speculators, those guys do what they want and they don't look at the graph before to get an approval.
Basing your decisions on graph analyzing only is wrong, and you should be considering the status of the market, regulators, hype level and etc to get an accurate vision.

[Proton2233]

People like to draw graphs to illustrate their theories. But I think it's unnecessary. Chart shows the price behaviour of bitcoin but this is not amenable to theory. Bitcoin does not have a classical value and therefore its price has an artificial origin. How can this be analyzed? No one knows that today have come up with whales.

[Thirdspace]

I don't like your vision as it's completely based on analyzing the graph.

umm... that's why we called it technical analysis! it's based on historical data to predict the possible outcomes

Remember that you are dealing here with a brand new asset that is being completely controlled by huge speculators, those guys do what they want and they don't look at the graph before to get an approval.
Basing your decisions on graph analyzing only is wrong, and you should be considering the status of the market, regulators, hype level and etc to get an accurate vision.

there's no definite wrong or right in trading markets, you can only try to make your best guess of future price
you do it with whatever tools you choose depending which kind of analyst you are
a technical analyst believes all those things you said have been reflected on the price charts

here's some good information from wikipedia and investopedia
click on the quote links to read the whole article on the source site

Technical analysis
In finance, technical analysis is an analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.
---snip---
General description
Fundamental analysts examine earnings, dividends, assets, quality, ratio, new products, research and the like. Technicians employ many methods, tools and techniques as well, one of which is the use of charts. Using charts, technical analysts seek to identify price patterns and market trends in financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns.

What is 'Technical Analysis'
Technical analysis is a trading tool employed to evaluate securities and attempt to forecast their future movement by analyzing statistics gathered from trading activity, such as price movement and volume.
---snip---
The second basic assumption underlying technical analysis, the notion that price changes are not random, leads to the belief of technical analysts that market trends, both short term and long term, can be identified, enabling market traders to profit from investing according to the existing trend.

[Xardasim]

The technical analysis is not necessary in cryptos, someone with money can by pass the price analysis, so technical side of chart is useless. I checked your analiysis but there are gaps that did't included. To me, don't be tired. If you are good at technical analysis, you should be busy with Forex.

[slaman29]

Nice, simple, to the point. Stretch out that triangle (zoom in on the end) though and you see that the purple line has already been broken several times these few months, so I suppose it does mean good news in the sense that even when support breaks, there's still enough strength in Bitcoin to move back higher. We saw post G20 of 9k and the mid-8000s support, will be curious if Monday still manages to hold these levels or break past 9k and aim for the big old 10 again.

[TomCrypto]

As I stated above, Technical Analysis is just a part concerning price forecasting in crypto.
And there is many ways to perform TA : you can try to search patterns in the price (triangle, double bottom, double top, head&shoulder, Cup and handle, channel, pennant, diamond...), find some repetition of a scheme (fractals), use indicators (MACD, RSI, ADX,....) , use some Fibonacci mathematical tools (in term of price level, of time period,...) ,... There is a lot you can do and you can always find something that will support your price prediction.

In addition to TA, in order to try to do more accurate price forecast you have to take into account market sentiment (how the crypto enthusiasts will react to the market will depend on their confidence into the market, on the news on mainstream media, crypto media, twitter, influencer....) as well as fundamental analysis (how solid is a crypto project, does the team is capable on delivering, marketing, finance, token economy, ...) .
Those three tools must be combined to allow better understanding of what is driving the price.

But as always, those three tools are not perfect, and you are not away of one unexpected move from several whales or some price manipulation. "Shit Happens"
Never take someone investing advice blindly without doing your own due diligence that the main advice I can give in trading.

For my experience, Technical analysis in crypto is stronger than in forex market. Indeed, more people in the crypto world seems to have knowledge of TA and they try to follow some pattern. In forex it works also but I find it less effective. On the other end, fundamental analysis is less efficient in crypto than in forex (when you see so much scam project having huge market cap there is a problem!). Market sentiment seems to work equally on forex and Crypto for me.

But all this talk is my own opinion, and some will agree some won't and that's the beauty of the thing I’m just sharing my thoughts with you. I may be wrong, I may be right. Let's talk about it, this forum is a good place to do it.

Concerning the 5700 double bottom, I could just say that this will be a strong support if we ever break down the purple line (and confirm it by the closing of a daily candle under). But as I say "shit happens" and if for example we are near this support and that a very bad news is spreaded in all media (Banning of crypto from some countries, big hack on some exchange...) then we can go below 5700$. That's why, we have to use the three tools : TA, FA and Market sentiment

Good trading to all of you

[Harlot]

The technical analysis is not necessary in cryptos, someone with money can by pass the price analysis, so technical side of chart is useless. I checked your analiysis but there are gaps that did't included. To me, don't be tired. If you are good at technical analysis, you should be busy with Forex.

Can you enlighten as what gaps are you talking about in his technical analysis? It's funny how people think that only money can drive prices up and down in the cryptocurrency market where TA existed on price charts since it was first introduce. TA also involves psychology as it is the one who translates how the market will go by understanding different human actions, and that includes how the money is flowing in and out of Bitcoin. And Yes  even guys with Big money can be detected via Technical Analysis.

If I apply your thinking to Forex the same can be said to it too, any guy who has "money" can make the technical side of the chart useless, so why do technical analysis in the first place? When you can be poor and a noob forever?

[removebeforeflight]

Despite all the Bad/Good/Fake News Bitcoin is still in this triangle where the bottom purple line started one year ago in march 2017 (touched 4 times since) and the top red line started in December (touched 3 times since)



Two days ago, BTC hit the 8.85k coupled with the 9k level who acted like a strong resistance.

For now on, BTC could go retest the bottom of the triangle by touching the purple line.
If the purple line is broken we will have a great chance to go to the next support : 7k and then 5.9-6k.

But if we bounce we will go back to try to break the 8.85-9k resistance. If BTC manage to test this resistance we will witness a test of the next resistance at 10k (round number resistance) near the top of the triangle.
If it broke up we will go to the next fib resistance around 11k

This triangle will play out in the next 3 weeks, so i advised you to watch it closely and to put our order accordingly.

Good observation and I appreciate your time and data collected for identifying this graph. Yes you are correct almost, people who are in trading could use your information wisely to buy or sell who don't have any other graphs to identify when and where to buy Bitcoin. I personally think that in April mid Bitcoin would rise to $12k according to the trend it follows. Lets wait and watch her movement. 

[rizkyhiw]

I really appreciate the analysis you make in which there are still many people who think about it and want to share, instead of looking for profit only in mind, it is very useful for some people and for the future it may be more mature to appreciate what has been made.
would not be poor if I knew the analysis they made might be useful to me in the future in trading.

[babygun]

While these technical analysis are always nice to see, I wonder what the real benefit is by doing this. It is not a way to predict the market, because as the OP has stated in his post, we will or go down to +/- 7k or go up again depending on the market.