Reading Market Signs

[puze]

I have spent almost the entire weekend watching various graphs trying to understand what is happening to the BTC price and why it is happening. Granted, it has been a slow weekend and the graphs haven't revealed much in the way of significant changes to price or trade volume. But what I would like to know is if there are any specific things to watch for either on graphs or other available market data that might indicate that something different was going to happen.

Changes in volume of asks or sells? Things to watch for at certain times of the day? Hints of activity from blogs or your favourite twitter commentators?

Anything at all

Thanks

[Birdy]

Watch out for relevant news (e.g. News forum here, reddit.com/r/Bitcoin)
Understand how Bitcoin works (distribution of new coins, limits and so on)

Watch some chart-websites like
http://blockchained.com/
http://bitcoinity.org/markets/mtgox/USD (important charts: Mtgox, Bitstamp and BTCchina)

Or if you are feel like being esoteric today, join those people with their chartanalysis in the speculation board.

[puze]

Thanks Birdy.

I guess the thing is is to be able to interpret all the information that is at one's fingertips, and of course this will only come as time goes on.

I haven't looked outside of the Newbie section of the board yet, but thanks for the heads up on the section for the Speculators. I'll have a look over there later.

I wonder how much an influence the Chinese will have on BTC price movements overall. They seem to be trading more and more as the days go on.

Interesting...

[brand_new]

I agree with Birdy here. Just looking at graphs won't tell you the whole story. I'd recommend subscribing to an RSS feed with Bitcoin news related keywords, as well as of course Reddit's /r/Bitcoin. If you do this for a while (I mean weeks) you will probably notice a few market patterns with respect to major news being released, eventually building a general understanding of market reactions.


I'd recommend having two monitors, and a lot of seat time.

[puze]

Thanks pal.

Any suggestions as to an RSS feed, or say a twitter-based pundit?

[xephyr]

Good old technical analysis can give you reliable entry points for buying bitcoin. For example a simple oscillator like Stochastic can easily show you when BTC/USD is oversold. Combine with support levels and a simple moving average. The hard part of using any system is discipline. Search for posts by the user masterluc for an interesting read.

[BitcoinWalker]

Watch out for Bitcoin in the news. Last time the news of Silk Road being closed caused a value crash of 10% within a few hours. These days any news of Bitcoin from China market may have a strong effect on the value of Bitcoin. China's Google Baidu was seen as the main factor in the recent spike of Bitcoin for instance. Also, the trading volumes of Bitcoin exchanges in China are getting bigger than those of MtGox and Bitstamp. 

[MAbtc]

Cup and handle -- sides are April and August/September, handle is ~ SR crash and now in October we see confirmation. To the moon? We'll see. 

[odolvlobo]

People place much too much importance on interpreting graphs. Technical analysis is just astrology for investors.

[Bullionado]

Prices always move upwards in accordance with the lack of supply.

Bitcoin is getting expensive to mine profitably and the speed of its popularity and adoption is winning gold medals every day compared with its limited availability.

Its really not rocket science to buy crashes and sell hypes.

Bitcoin would be a money maker for investors for quite some time to come until a sideways stability comes to it.

Right now only $2 Billion worth actually floats through it but when it crosses a $100 billion or $1 Trillion line, then the situation would be a lot different.

[ANiceJewishBoy]

The main thing that drives the Bitcoin economy is shouting from the rooftops. When there is a new article released and it talks good about coins, the price goes up.

If they were to make an episode of South Park that was centered around Bitcoin, and could show the Bitcoiners in a good light (instead of hording ass holes) then it could revolutionize the entire community. But to get the attention of Liberal media, the community would have to stop supporting greed and start supporting the future of the entire community (More people forming BTC groups that work together to trade and manipulate the markets. More people starting stores that accept Bitcoins and Alt-coin, etc etc).

[puze]

The main thing that drives the Bitcoin economy is shouting from the rooftops. When there is a new article released and it talks good about coins, the price goes up.

Yes - this is significant and recently we have seen increased interest globally in Bitcoins. Hence, in my opinion, the consolidation of value we are now seeing through the gradual, sure but steady rise in value.

But to get the attention of Liberal media, the community would have to stop supporting greed and start supporting the future of the entire community (More people forming BTC groups that work together to trade and manipulate the markets. More people starting stores that accept Bitcoins and Alt-coin, etc etc).

Yes - this is happening as well - more and more people are now aware of Bitcoin - more and more businesses are incorporating it into their own business models.

I think for the long term, the future is very bright

[ANiceJewishBoy]

Yes - this is happening as well - more and more people are now aware of Bitcoin - more and more businesses are incorporating it into their own business models.

I think for the long term, the future is very bright

I saw that. I have been lurking here for a year, and I just joined to discover that there are more reliable bitcoin charities being formed than ever. It's amazing.

[BitcoinWalker]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=320108.msg3426000#msg3426000

'Bitcoin days destroyed' is a good thing that can be used to analyze Bitcoin market trends.

[puze]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=320108.msg3426000#msg3426000

'Bitcoin days destroyed' is a good thing that can be used to analyze Bitcoin market trends.

Thanks - I was wondering these last few days how/if this might be used.

 

[puze]

From the Reddit link...

What you can do with this metric is sum it over a month (to remove daily fluctuations) and divide by total transaction volume, and get an "average holding time". Alternately you could make a graph or table by age of coins spent - how many are under 30 days, 30-60 days, etc. That would give you an idea of spending and saving patterns - how many coins are in current circulation vs being held for long periods.

Is this sort of information readily available and if not, easily produced?

[BitcoinWalker]

From the Reddit link...

What you can do with this metric is sum it over a month (to remove daily fluctuations) and divide by total transaction volume, and get an "average holding time". Alternately you could make a graph or table by age of coins spent - how many are under 30 days, 30-60 days, etc. That would give you an idea of spending and saving patterns - how many coins are in current circulation vs being held for long periods.

Is this sort of information readily available and if not, easily produced?

Is this sort of information readily available?
Ans: Yes, everything comes from "blockchain".

easily produced?
Ans: Maybe not for those who don't excel in programming. Basically we need a parser to get what we need from the blockchain. Wonder if Blockchain.info has an API for it.