Explanations for the differences between USD and non-USD bitcoin prices.

[zby]

During the last big rally in May and June the non-USD markets had higher prices than mtgox - now it is in reverse.  Any speculations on this?

[1714066709]

1714066709

[1714066709]

1714066709

[1714066709]

1714066709

[JoelKatz]

It's the same reason smaller hospitals have more days on which only boys are born.

[zby]

It's the same reason smaller hospitals have more days on which only boys are born.

I don't agree - this is not random, the european markets (EUR, GBP and PLN, I did not follow ruble) all act in unisono.

[piramida]

Who said it's random? Your question has been perfectly answered - price lags because of low volume. Low volume means bigger volatility, so naturally other exchanges would have price jumping around mtgox average, depending on the current trend direction it would either be below or above the market.

[zby]

Who said it's random?

It's the same reason smaller hospitals have more days on which only boys are born.

Isn't that hospital model about a random process?

[piramida]

yeah it's either boy or a girl random, same way prices go up or down random

[zby]

Who said it's random? ... depending on the current trend direction it would either be below or above the market.

yeah it's either boy or a girl random, same way prices go up or down random

If prices depend on the current trend direction - they are not random - and this is different from boy/girl births which are random.

Your question has been perfectly answered - price lags because of low volume. Low volume means bigger volatility, so naturally other exchanges would have price jumping around mtgox average, depending on the current trend direction it would either be below or above the market.

Additional data - TradeHill does not visibly lag after mtgox in the way you describe.  It fluctuates around the mtgox price but it has not been consistently below mtgox for a month despite the current trend direction.  It does not seem to be simply about volatility.

[netrin]

Have you normalized the prices against forex? The USD is certainly fluctuating all on its own.

[zby]

Have you normalized the prices against forex? The USD is certainly fluctuating all on its own.

I mostly used the Google exchange rates - sometimes I checked them against consumer exchange services - that is http://www.ukforex.co.uk/ and https://cinkciarz.pl/ - to know the actual price I could get, but the differences there were not significant.  I also tried some arbitrage - but with simple moving money around the losses on withdrawing funds from Mtgox (with SEPA - more than 5%, nearly 10% in the case when I moved the money directly to PLN) nullified all gains.  For me it looks like people are in fact withdrawing funds from Mtgox by moving bitcoins to other exchanges.