I'm using a chart to define Elliot Wave theory with 5 wave. I believe on the monthly we are currently in correction and retracement of a second wave. As we saw a 85% correction in 2012 we can use from high which would be a $3.5k correction from the current high. Not sure where this places onions but it would like be 85% of high which is approximately where we are atm.
From your analysis bitcoin is expected to pullback or to make correction to $3.5K well I respite your analysis but I don't think it's possible to pullback to that range, of course technical analysis do work well forex or spot trading but at times bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies do defies TA, in views that the pullback might necessarily reach $3.5K due to upcoming positive FUDs.