2013-10-29 CoinDesk: Op-Ed: The bitcoin price has the potential to reach $1,820

[Arvicco]

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-long-term-potential/

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[aigeezer]

I found the headline irritating and almost didn't read the article.

After reading it, I understand the reason for the headline, but it's still a white noise article for me.
The author uses various quant tools to derive his number. Fair enough. I'm reminded of the quant tools used by Team Bernanke to derive their numbers.
There may or may not be a massive disconnect from real world behavior, not because the tools are flawed, but because of the assumptions made to generate the input data.

To his credit, the author warns that ymmv in several places, but that eventually leaves only empty content.

"The price we calculated here is one that we might see in the future if bitcoin continues its extraordinary growth path for all use cases."

It's a feel-good piece, for sure, but I hope nobody makes financial decisions based on it, despite the reassuring quants. After all, the potential price might be only $1,819 (or zero) if his assumptions are wrong.

[Arvicco]

Well, the tools this author uses are not so much quant after all. This is just another guesstimate with assumptions hardly justified. It has about the same predictive value as any other guesstimate, regardless of "scientific" terms used in it to create an illusion of solid basis.

[aigeezer]

Well, the tools this author uses are not so much quant after all. This is just another guesstimate with assumptions hardly justified. It has about the same predictive value as any other guesstimate, regardless of "scientific" terms used in it to create an illusion of solid basis.

You're right - I overstated my case. There is nothing sophisticated about the tools used except in comparison to the usual media offerings which tend to be "I think X therefore X is true". This article used named variables and two graph/charts and solved an equation before our very eyes - quant tools, media-style.       

[TraderTimm]

Well, they do say that it isn't a prediction in the article. So fine, they're just juggling some probable numbers and guessing.

Personally I think the next mania/bubble/parabolic run-up will take us to the quadruple digits before falling apart again. The big question of course is, WHEN. I've got my prop indicators lined up and ready - but we're not quite there yet. We need that catalyst before it will go to what I call "crazytown".

And naturally fall apart like the rally to 260's. It seems we repeat that part pretty consistently, regardless of actual magnitude.

[kjlimo]

For about a year, I've been saying $1,000s in 2015, but I'll be gladly surprised if we hit it in 2014, but certainly with a "crash" to follow soon after.

So get your day trading skillz ready to capitalize like when Silk Road shut down

[Bboy360]

No one has a crystal ball.  If bitcoin is a success and people start to use it, it'll be way more than 1,820.  Most people don't even know what bitcoins are.  Heck if a 3rd world country is smart, they'd just change their whole currency to bitcoins or pay people in bitcoins and the value of bitcoins would skyrocket.  You can't predict how fast it will go up or go down.  Anything can happen.

[exstasie]

...i could make crazy claims as well, and put the word potential in front to make it seem legit.  Bitcoin has the potential to reach $5000/BTC...

[DeathAndTaxes]

Bitcoin has the potential to reach $200,000 (+/- $200,000).

[solex]

Bitcoin has the potential to reach $200,000 (+/- $200,000).

Luv ya D&T

[BTCLuke]

Not to defend the author, but I'd say that once people around the world have enough merchants or ATM points to feel that they can get their value locally for any bitcoin sent to them, the price of a bitcoin will shoot up 10x in the next couple of years to ~$2,000. That's what the price will absorb once we have destroyed WU and Paypal.

But that's only part of the story, which the author doesn't go further past. At the same time, institutional investors will start adding this new asset class to institutional portfolios... Possibly spending billions of USD and Euro on bitcoins just to keep their funds diversified properly. That move will happen gradually but has already started, so I'd say within 5 years they should be finishing up these long-term buys, pushing up the price of bitcoin another few thousand, perhaps up to $5,000 usd each.

THEN there's the promise that dark wallet offers for the transactions to truly go dark, allowing the REAL black market to hop onboard. If this tech really works well, then wow, black marketeers all over the planet will probably stop using cash altogether adding billions more to our economy. $7500 btc? Just a rough guess.

FINALLY there is the demise of the Dollar, Euro, and Yen. All three are printing overtime at truly unsustainable rates, and Japan is certainly going to collapse first, with us and europe in a race for 2nd place.

No, they aren't going to fall off a cliff overnight, but the more uncomfy these countries make their subjects, the more they'll flock to bitcoin and create a network effect that spirals downwards faster and faster. I don't suspect either of the three currencies will exist in 2020, although something else may be issued by those governments instead of bitcoin taking over completely.

Either way, we're talking about TRILLIONS of today's dollars worth then. WHEN that scenario happens, each bitcoin will go up to well over a Million dollars each, adjusted to today's dollars. People holding a half bitcoin now should be able to retire in style then, no problem.

Here's hoping we don't have to wait too long.