And here is my "6 Step Pattern" analysis:
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FPJDikSe.png&t=665&c=VYm5AEmD2SPU3A)
First I would like to say that im a believer of the "new trend line"
![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
I may be completly wrong, but I see 6 pattern lines in the previous trend line, until the new trend line started.
1 is the "Initial Bubble",
2 is the "Crash" (followed by a strong downtrend)
3 is the "Recovery",
4 is the "Mild Downtrend"
5 is the "False Signal" (something that looks like the new trend, but isnt)
and finally we see a new "Mild Crash Event" (arrow) and then 6, the "Consolidation"
The price at this "Mild Crash event" acts as a resistance, until a new trend line starts!
When we compare this to the new trend line started at approcimatly 9th of january 2013:
We see the same pattern appearing:
1 and 2 are clear.
We reached >140 USD in september [3], then trending down towards 125 USD [4]
And now, we see a big boost in price [5]
So what do I think will happen?
We will folow the "bubble trend line" for a while, and when we see a new "Mild Crash Event" we will consolidate towards the "New Trendline" [6]
I cant predict the date, nor the price point of the "Mild crash event", but im pretty sure this will happen
![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
(so the second red arrow indicating the future "Mild Crash Event" can be placed anywhere on the blue line. Maybe it already happened when BTC went down from 233 USD towards 160 USD in a few hours. In that case, we are in Consolitation at the moment [6] until 18 december 2013.
![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)