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Question: What will the price be in 1 year (1 nov 2014)?
300 USD - old trend - 42 (26.3%)
3170 USD - new trend - 95 (59.4%)
120861 USD - bubble trend - 11 (6.9%)
<0.01 USD - bitcoin crash - 8 (5%)
>1000000000 USD - dollar crash - 4 (2.5%)
Total Voters: 160

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Author Topic: Old Trend vs New Trend vs Unsustainable Bubble ??? + "6 Step Pattern Analysis"  (Read 9464 times)
dnaleor
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October 31, 2013, 12:32:37 AM
 #1

I had some fun with the price chart and created this (calculations below)



The old trend is clear. Starting on 04/04/2011 at approximatly 0.70 USD with a daily growth rate of apprimatly 0.465% we hit 14 USD on the 9th january 2013. If this trend line never had changed, the price of 1 BTC today would be 55 USD.

This last date is the new breakout point for the second trend line
Based on these numbers: 9 januari/14 USD and 2 october/125 USD,
the new trend line shows an average price growth of 0.825% per day.
The current price should be (according to the new (green) trend line)
approximatly 158 USD

Some people argue that we started a new trend line, but this seems unlikely... That would be a growth that is too exponential...
starting on 2october/125 USD and using 140 USD (on oct 11) and 190 USD (on oct 26) as support:
a stunning daily growth rate of 1.76% !! This seems too high.
Although, at the moment, the price is roughly following this trend (based on the numbers, it should be 207 USD)

Finally, lets look at these trends in 1 year:
The old trend predicts in 1 year a price of 300 USD
The new trend predicts in 1 year a price of 3170 USD
The New bubble trend predicts in 1 year a price of 120861 USD
I also added 2 options: a bitcoin crash and a USD crash Wink

VOTE! Cheesy

analysis of my "6 Step Pattern", see below!


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October 31, 2013, 12:35:53 AM
 #2

How about a very long term trend between Oct '10 and Jan '13?

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October 31, 2013, 12:48:14 AM
 #3

How about a very long term trend between Oct '10 and Jan '13?

thats doesnt seem to match the "lows". We can, however, extend the old trend line towards februari 2011, that makes no difference, but I would rather not (Ill post why in a few minutes)

I leave the early days of bitcoin out. The start of the old trend line was taken at the moment when DPR started advertising The Silk Road, and bitcoin became usefull at once Wink (ignoring the 10k BTC pizza :p )


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October 31, 2013, 01:00:32 AM
 #4

And here is my "6 Step Pattern" analysis:


First I would like to say that im a believer of the "new trend line" Smiley
I may be completly wrong, but I see 6 pattern lines in the previous trend line, until the new trend line started.

1 is the "Initial Bubble",
2 is the "Crash" (followed by a strong downtrend)
3 is the "Recovery",
4 is the "Mild Downtrend"
5 is the "False Signal" (something that looks like the new trend, but isnt)
and finally we see a new "Mild Crash Event" (arrow) and then 6, the "Consolidation"
The price at this "Mild Crash event" acts as a resistance, until a new trend line starts!

When we compare this to the new trend line started at approcimatly 9th of january 2013:
We see the same pattern appearing:
1 and 2 are clear.
We reached >140 USD in september [3], then trending down towards 125 USD [4]
And now, we see a big boost in price [5]

So what do I think will happen?
We will folow the "bubble trend line" for a while, and when we see a new "Mild Crash Event" we will consolidate towards the "New Trendline" [6]
I cant predict the date, nor the price point of the "Mild crash event", but im pretty sure this will happen Cheesy
(so the second red arrow indicating the future "Mild Crash Event" can be placed anywhere on the blue line. Maybe it already happened when BTC went down from 233 USD towards 160 USD in a few hours. In that case, we are in Consolitation at the moment [6] until 18 december 2013. Smiley

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October 31, 2013, 01:06:34 AM
 #5

Cool thread. Breath of fresh air in here.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
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October 31, 2013, 01:08:36 AM
 #6

Cool thread. Breath of fresh air in here.

thanks Cheesy

I was thinking of creating these charts a few weeks ago, but didnt had the time. And now, with the current "bubble", I felt I needed to do this ASAP Wink

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October 31, 2013, 01:19:06 AM
 #7

Cool thread. Breath of fresh air in here.

thanks Cheesy

I was thinking of creating these charts a few weeks ago, but didnt had the time. And now, with the current "bubble", I felt I needed to do this ASAP Wink

Its interesting analysis...but just looking at your prediction the "False Signal" in [5] is a substantial gain (to well over $500). Thats more then just a false signal, thats an increase larger than the initial bubble

"The true sign of intelligence is not knowledge but imagination"  -Albert Einstein
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October 31, 2013, 01:24:34 AM
 #8

Cool thread. Breath of fresh air in here.

thanks Cheesy

I was thinking of creating these charts a few weeks ago, but didnt had the time. And now, with the current "bubble", I felt I needed to do this ASAP Wink

Its interesting analysis...but just looking at your prediction the "False Signal" in [5] is a substantial gain (to well over $500). Thats more then just a false signal, thats an increase larger than the initial bubble

I just drew line 5 and 6 at random. As I stated, I dont know the date for the "Mild Crash Event", nor the price when this will happen Smiley
(crashes are mostly unpredictable)

edit: about the "false signal":
I didnt buy in this new trend. My last buy was at 158 USD in the recent drop from 220 USD (i use bitstamp for trading)
My buy before that was at 130 USD

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October 31, 2013, 01:31:04 AM
 #9

It is also possible that the recent drop at 233 USD will act as the "Mild Crsh Event" and that 233 USD will act as a resistance for a long period. Nobody knows Wink

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October 31, 2013, 01:32:57 AM
 #10

Overall I think your analysis is sound. I just scoffed at seeing BTC at $500 by January lol. Even I'm not that optimistic. But I think we may be headed into the "mild crash event" you described shortly. There doesn't seem to be as much buying power in the market as there was a few days ago.

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October 31, 2013, 01:39:50 AM
 #11

Overall I think your analysis is sound. I just scoffed at seeing BTC at $500 by January lol. Even I'm not that optimistic. But I think we may be headed into the "mild crash event" you described shortly. There doesn't seem to be as much buying power in the market as there was a few days ago.

or maybe we have already seen the event a few days ago Wink
If thats the case, we will Consolidate [6] towards the new trendline but will not cross 233 USD until that happens.
If that is the case, a new (perhaps stronger) trend line will start at 18 december 2013 Cheesy (just calculated the date Wink )

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October 31, 2013, 01:52:08 AM
 #12

It might crash to really low like the last crash which I am waiting for buy some Smiley

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October 31, 2013, 03:35:56 AM
 #13

Looks like it will break out to the upside over the next few months.  If so it may follow your new trendline for a while but ultimately go parabolic and end in an unsustainable bubble.  Bitcoin trades like a commodity and bullish moves end in an unsustainable bubble-like nature in many cases.

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October 31, 2013, 03:49:33 AM
 #14

Great analysis. I agree on all counts. The only thing I'd be sure to point out, although it is obvious, is that the trendline is the line of strong support, not the average price. So we can generally expect the price to be way above that.

It looks like either we power up to $600-800ish and mess around there for a while, or we consolidate in the 200s for longer. I personally feel like a big surge is bound to happen this week or next, but a longer consolidation or mild crash event isn't impossible.
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October 31, 2013, 04:26:26 AM
 #15

We assume that the trend line is caused by growth of fundamentals and is not affected by boom-burst events. It is reasonable assumption in stock trade, but BTC is special: because of network effect it's fundamentals are affected by awareness, which comes with bubbles. So we should expect the trend line go up after each boom. If it happened this time, the new trend line would be parallel to the old line (0.46% a day), but above it, on 4x distance. So in one year time we can expect 300*(200/55) ~ 1100 USD.

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
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October 31, 2013, 06:21:54 AM
 #16

There is still a possibility that we go to the old trend line again. We go from boom "Bitcoin to the moon" to bust "Bitcoin is dead". Why would it be different this time?

                                 
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October 31, 2013, 06:32:03 AM
 #17

How about a very long term trend between Oct '10 and Jan '13?

+1 vote for the very long term trend. Somewhere around $2000?
In case we have a bubble / crash around that time, could be anything between $300 and $3000.
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October 31, 2013, 06:40:03 AM
 #18

There is still a possibility that we go to the old trend line again. We go from boom "Bitcoin to the moon" to bust "Bitcoin is dead". Why would it be different this time?

Because last time (2011) the bubble was way bigger.
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October 31, 2013, 08:10:30 AM
 #19

There is still a possibility that we go to the old trend line again. We go from boom "Bitcoin to the moon" to bust "Bitcoin is dead". Why would it be different this time?

Because last time (2011) the bubble was way bigger.

and people didn't know if bitcoin will be accepted by others and applied to the economy. Today we know it will happen.
I think that growth wont be linear but more like exponential.

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October 31, 2013, 11:01:32 AM
 #20

There is still a possibility that we go to the old trend line again. We go from boom "Bitcoin to the moon" to bust "Bitcoin is dead". Why would it be different this time?

Because last time (2011) the bubble was way bigger.

indeed, thats probably the reason why the 6 step pattern lines are smaller than in the first bubble: The 2013 bubble is smaller than the 2011 bubble...

If we dont go exponential in the coming days, I will change my second chart and I call the "Mild Crash Event" at 233 USD. Than we will see Consolidation until approximatly 18 december and hit 233 USD again, which will start a new (3th) trend line.

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