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Author Topic: Bubble 3 starts now  (Read 3798 times)
jzcjca00
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October 31, 2013, 04:50:24 PM
 #1

Has anyone noticed that the mainstream media has suddenly turned pro-Bitcoin?  I read the major mainstream articles about Bitcoin every day, and the shift was sudden and dramatic.  My theory is that the rich are planning to create a third major Bitcoin bubble, and the run up is starting now.

If I were super rich, ruthless, and in control of the mainstream media, here's how I would execute such a plan:

Phase I.  Accumulate a large position while keeping the price low.  A major component of my strategy would be to use negative press and occasional artificial flash crashes to discourage other investors from buying.  That phase may be ending now.

Phase II.  Get others to buy and drive up the price.  The dialogue in the MSM has recently switched to venture capitalists and hedge funds investing in Bitcoin, Bitcoin going mainstream, and Bitcoin being an innovative technology worthy of notice.  If this keeps up, we might start seeing a huge price increase from here, perhaps to $2000 or more.

Phase III.  Cash out.  Probably fast, causing a huge crash, accompanied by a lot of press about the final collapse of the Bitcoin bubble.  Perhaps they buy back in at the bottom and sell again when it semi-recovers.

It probably leaves Bitcoin's reputation bruised and bleeding in a ditch, which is exactly what they want.

Questions.  Has anyone else noticed the shift?  Are there better explanations for it?  Can we stop it?  How can we profit from it if we don't know where the top will be?  Is there any way to protect Bitcoin's reputation from the effects of the crash?

Tips much appreciated! 1PPJHDawPvjh6MEzsvXrMYLgpLmyAaNXUc
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Ivanhoe
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October 31, 2013, 04:52:40 PM
 #2

I did notice the shift in attitude from the media, although there is still a long way to go. I think it's because they finally learn and understand the principle of Bitcoin now. After popping up so many times they got to learn about it.
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October 31, 2013, 04:54:34 PM
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If I were super rich, ruthless, and in control of the mainstream media, here's how I would execute such a plan:
Based on this, I'm sure it will go down exactly as you say.  Smiley

adamstgBit
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October 31, 2013, 05:52:02 PM
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lets convince the world bitcoin is the future, make it a reality and then dump back into USD and say "AH HA fooled you!"

lol no.

big money is investing not speculating

tutkarz
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October 31, 2013, 06:01:16 PM
 #5

If someone had such a plan, then to me he would be really stupid. Investing in bitcoin already gives you chance to be rich without dirty tricks. There is simply no need to.
And if someone is thinking to have even more billions then my question is what for? Look at Bill Gates. Even if he could he can't spend such amount of money he owns in reasonable way and you won't take that money to your grave too.

btcash
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October 31, 2013, 08:16:39 PM
 #6

This is going to be a nice big bubble. In last days many major (online) newspapers published something about bitcoin (silk road, bitcoin atm, norwegian guy) and all articles were positive.

http://stats.grok.se/en/201310/bitcoin
Bitalo_Maciej
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October 31, 2013, 08:57:45 PM
 #7

Ask sum on MtGox hit he new low since August 2012 lately, while bids are climbing. Sure, that probably has much to do with inability to withdraw fiat from MtGox, but still shows that buy pressure is tremendous. Almost no one wants to sell. Thus I agree with OP, we're definitely going up from here. Where to? To the moon Cheesy.

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Zangelbert Bingledack
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November 01, 2013, 10:23:24 AM
 #8

The relevant figure isn't the bid depth or ask depth, or even the bid/ask depth, but rather the bid/ask depth divided by the price. I wish blockchained.com would show that, though you can sort of eyeball it.

Anyway, enough blabbering: we are indeed on a rocketship to Mars. It's funny though, we have this circus atmosphere and almost no price movement. It almost makes me wonder if we will go down instead, but no, if I imagine looking back on this time as right before a major crash it seems silly. If I imagine looking back on this time as just before an incredible rally, it seems totally obvious.
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November 01, 2013, 10:41:27 AM
 #9

Anyway, enough blabbering: we are indeed on a rocketship to Mars. It's funny though, we have this circus atmosphere and almost no price movement. It almost makes me wonder if we will go down instead, but no, if I imagine looking back on this time as right before a major crash it seems silly. If I imagine looking back on this time as just before an incredible rally, it seems totally obvious.
I totally agree.

The funny thing is that 10 days ago every body was saying "damn the price jump too fast... a correction would be soooo healthy".
And now that we have our correction and a one week consolidation, people begin to doubt.
Zangelbert Bingledack
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November 01, 2013, 11:51:52 AM
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Anyway, enough blabbering: we are indeed on a rocketship to Mars. It's funny though, we have this circus atmosphere and almost no price movement. It almost makes me wonder if we will go down instead, but no, if I imagine looking back on this time as right before a major crash it seems silly. If I imagine looking back on this time as just before an incredible rally, it seems totally obvious.
I totally agree.

The funny thing is that 10 days ago every body was saying "damn the price jump too fast... a correction would be soooo healthy".
And now that we have our correction and a one week consolidation, people begin to doubt.

It's like the price will only rise once the fakeout is complete. The market always has to surprise people. It will wait out our optimism and only jump when we're sick of waiting and decide to get bearish Smiley

And by saying this I'm just making it worse, so I'll shut up now. Or better yet, SELL! SELL! SELL!!!
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November 01, 2013, 12:07:34 PM
 #11

The relevant figure isn't the bid depth or ask depth, or even the bid/ask depth, but rather the bid/ask depth divided by the price. I wish blockchained.com would show that, though you can sort of eyeball it.

Anyway, enough blabbering: we are indeed on a rocketship to Mars. It's funny though, we have this circus atmosphere and almost no price movement. It almost makes me wonder if we will go down instead, but no, if I imagine looking back on this time as right before a major crash it seems silly. If I imagine looking back on this time as just before an incredible rally, it seems totally obvious.

http://www.coinorama.net/ --> Settings --> 'Normalize bid/ask ratio'

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? I suggest to take a look at Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, fast, and one of the safest ways to store, send or receive bitcoins.
For executables (Windows, OSX, Linux, Android), source code and documentation, see the Electrum homepage.
TheQuin
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November 01, 2013, 12:13:21 PM
 #12

The funny thing is that 10 days ago every body was saying "damn the price jump too fast... a correction would be soooo healthy".
And now that we have our correction and a one week consolidation, people begin to doubt.

Yeah, that's how markets move  Wink

Zangelbert Bingledack
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November 01, 2013, 12:23:00 PM
 #13

The relevant figure isn't the bid depth or ask depth, or even the bid/ask depth, but rather the bid/ask depth divided by the price. I wish blockchained.com would show that, though you can sort of eyeball it.

Anyway, enough blabbering: we are indeed on a rocketship to Mars. It's funny though, we have this circus atmosphere and almost no price movement. It almost makes me wonder if we will go down instead, but no, if I imagine looking back on this time as right before a major crash it seems silly. If I imagine looking back on this time as just before an incredible rally, it seems totally obvious.

http://www.coinorama.net/ --> Settings --> 'Normalize bid/ask ratio'

Hmm...doesn't look so bullish. Though I'm not sure I'm reading it right.

oda.krell
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November 01, 2013, 12:49:26 PM
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I would read the ratio with extreme caution. In my experience, it's useful to a) look at the norm. ratio on bitstamp vs. that of mtgox to look for divergences (up or down) and b) concentrate on the short term only -- how the ratio developed over the past few days. Anything longer than that, as far as I can tell, is noise. Additionally, the ratio both leads price occasionally, but also follows it pretty often, perhaps more often in fact. I only use it as one of many pieces in analysing the price, but it's not completely useless IMO. Example: Both bitstamp and mtgox show a very nice divergence in the ratio before the recent correction from 200+, starting a few days earlier. This could (should) have been a warning sign for those who thought the run-up would continue uninterrupted. (not that it ever does :D)

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? I suggest to take a look at Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, fast, and one of the safest ways to store, send or receive bitcoins.
For executables (Windows, OSX, Linux, Android), source code and documentation, see the Electrum homepage.
Zangelbert Bingledack
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November 01, 2013, 01:03:01 PM
 #15

I would read the ratio with extreme caution. In my experience, it's useful to a) look at the norm. ratio on bitstamp vs. that of mtgox to look for divergences (up or down) and b) concentrate on the short term only -- how the ratio developed over the past few days. Anything longer than that, as far as I can tell, is noise. Additionally, the ratio both leads price occasionally, but also follows it pretty often, perhaps more often in fact. I only use it as one of many pieces in analysing the price, but it's not completely useless IMO. Example: Both bitstamp and mtgox show a very nice divergence in the ratio before the recent correction from 200+, starting a few days earlier. This could (should) have been a warning sign for those who thought the run-up would continue uninterrupted. (not that it ever does Cheesy)

Sounds sound. I had noticed that the ratio sometimes seemed to lead the price, so it was like a "secret" kind of early signal of what would happen, but of course it often follows instead. I also came to the conclusion that it was mildly useful.
tomatitotarifa
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November 01, 2013, 01:43:37 PM
 #16

If someone had such a plan, then to me he would be really stupid. Investing in bitcoin already gives you chance to be rich without dirty tricks. There is simply no need to.
And if someone is thinking to have even more billions then my question is what for? Look at Bill Gates. Even if he could he can't spend such amount of money he owns in reasonable way and you won't take that money to your grave too.

However right I think you are in my eyes, I think you underestimate the level of greed some individuals are capable of.
BitcoinAshley
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November 01, 2013, 02:27:24 PM
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Yes, because everything has to be a giant conspiracy theory  Grin

OTOH,

If someone had such a plan, then to me he would be really stupid. Investing in bitcoin already gives you chance to be rich without dirty tricks. There is simply no need to.
And if someone is thinking to have even more billions then my question is what for? Look at Bill Gates. Even if he could he can't spend such amount of money he owns in reasonable way and you won't take that money to your grave too.


It has nothing to do with getting rich or even greed. The point for those who are addicted to wealth and power is not just to get rich, it's to screw over everyone else in the process. Rich is relative. A million dollars isn't rich if everyone has a million dollars. But if you can keep it so that statistically, most people only have $10,000 dollars and you have a million dollars, you get your "fix" of wealth and power. And then you do it some more so that now most people have $1,000 dollars and you have one billion. Etc etc. They are attached to wealth and power so they hurt others in an effort to extract even more wealth and power from them (many ways to do this - currency debasement, centralized food production starting with grain agriculture, regulation & market controls, etc)
600watt
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November 01, 2013, 03:34:45 PM
 #18

The funny thing is that 10 days ago every body was saying "damn the price jump too fast... a correction would be soooo healthy".
And now that we have our correction and a one week consolidation, people begin to doubt.

Yeah, that's how markets move  Wink





 Wink
TheQuin
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November 01, 2013, 03:57:44 PM
 #19

The funny thing is that 10 days ago every body was saying "damn the price jump too fast... a correction would be soooo healthy".
And now that we have our correction and a one week consolidation, people begin to doubt.

Yeah, that's how markets move  Wink





 Wink

Nice one  Cheesy

On a serious note, a pull back and consolidation is a healthy sign in a bull market. The time to get worried is when it goes up parabolically without any pull back.

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November 01, 2013, 03:59:58 PM
 #20

bubble are fun... when you know when to pop it...

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