1) Black markets
Many people claim the shutdown of SR and the following quick recovery of the price is proving that the black market cannot be very significant in terms of bitcoin demand.
It is indeed a good signal for the public, emotionally detaching bitcoin from illegal things.
In reality, i know the volume of black market activity has not decreased. There are 2 marketplaces which have absorbed vendors and customers from SR.
I guess the shutdown of SR made the black market even bigger.
So, in the eyes of the public the evil side of bitcoin has gone, but the demand for bitcoins for blackmarket activities has definitely not decreased.
We still do not know how much this contributes to the price, do we?
2) The miners
They have invested and they are keen to regain their investment. This is the most solid factor in my opinion.
They have to invest even more over time be able to do that.
3) Business models using BTC
Can anyone estimate the real volume they generate?
I find it hard to estimate how serious this factor really is, as it is very easy to send BTC from one wallet to another thus being able to create any numbers you like and showing them off as your "cashflow"
What I'm trying to say is without some form of control we don't even know how much volume/demand the legal BTC businesses are generating.
Fraud/reporting false numbers seems to be much easier with BTC.
4) The speculators/investors
you know who you are and what you do
So.. we do not know how much the black market contributes.
We also do not know how much the legal businesses contribute. (I guess it's less than the illegal ones do)
I just compiled my thoughts on the topic here. Trying to be curious, not bearish or bullish.
Please share your opinions on what's backing up the price right now.