What threats to Bitcoin exist?

[x86Daddy]

I see the price of Bitcoin generally going up, quite a lot, based on positive news events, and there's some major ones that probably lie ahead in the next couple years: i.e. when major sales sites adopt it, when the next country has a crash of its native currency, etc...

What negative events might occur down the road that could severely damage Bitcoin's price and reputation?  Bitcoin may eventually get some serious enemies: the banks, countries that manipulate their fiat currency against their peoples' interest, paypal and other middlemen... and I would anticipate some attempts at attack could happen in the next couple years.

I'm basically trying to get an idea of how much risk we can look at, based on probabilities of major bad events...

[1715011938]

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1715011938

[wobber]

Nuclear holocaust.

Quantum computing.

[Hyena]

reptilians

[notme]

Hard fork over block size limit issue.

[oda.krell]

AmazonBucks ™

[Joe200]

AmazonBucks ™

This.

A large company - Amazon / Google / whoever - launches its own cryptocurrency. Even if it's an exact clone of bitcoins. They do a big promo and accept it as a form of payment for their services.

[Joe200]

Blockchain size.

[ardana123]

AmazonBucks ™

This.

A large company - Amazon / Google / whoever - launches its own cryptocurrency. Even if it's an exact clone of bitcoins. They do a big promo and accept it as a form of payment for their services.

Beats me how that could ever beat bitcoin, unless it's decentralized and open source as well. Then it would be more like a bitcoin 2.0.

But yea, block size limit and the regulatory issues could be a problem in the future.

[Joe200]

AmazonBucks ™

This.

A large company - Amazon / Google / whoever - launches its own cryptocurrency. Even if it's an exact clone of bitcoins. They do a big promo and accept it as a form of payment for their services.

Beats me how that could ever beat bitcoin, unless it's decentralized and open source as well. Then it would be more like a bitcoin 2.0.

But yea, block size limit and the regulatory issues could be a problem in the future.

That's what I said. They launch an exact copy of bitcoins - open source and all. But this exact copy gets a lot of publicity. And a major vendor accepts them, so a lot of demand. Everyone switches to AmazonBucks and forgets the current bitcoin.

[Odalv]

AmazonBucks ™

This.

A large company - Amazon / Google / whoever - launches its own cryptocurrency. Even if it's an exact clone of bitcoins. They do a big promo and accept it as a form of payment for their services.

Beats me how that could ever beat bitcoin, unless it's decentralized and open source as well. Then it would be more like a bitcoin 2.0.

But yea, block size limit and the regulatory issues could be a problem in the future.

That's what I said. They launch an exact copy of bitcoins - open source and all. But this exact copy gets a lot of publicity. And a major vendor accepts them, so a lot of demand. Everyone switches to AmazonBucks and forgets the current bitcoin.

Yes and your mum together with grandma will buy an asic miner and will mine GoogleCoin

[MonadTran]

Blockchain size.

This one bothers me, actually. Maybe I need to do some calculations to convince myself this does not become an issue in the foreseeable future... Or, convince myself this is an issue, and think if it can be fixed?

[MonadTran]

reptilians

... and rpietila.

[x86Daddy]

Blockchain size.

This one bothers me, actually. Maybe I need to do some calculations to convince myself this does not become an issue in the foreseeable future... Or, convince myself this is an issue, and think if it can be fixed?

Anyone have links to serious analysis about this topic?

[adamstgBit]

its hard to imagine anything that could bring down bitcoin as a whole. but bitcoin faces many challenges ahead, the tech is not perfected, its growing really fast, and its scary!

[ArticMine]

Hard fork over block size limit issue.

This is the most significant challenge that Bitcoin faces.

[bitrider]

AmazonBucks ™

This.

A large company - Amazon / Google / whoever - launches its own cryptocurrency. Even if it's an exact clone of bitcoins. They do a big promo and accept it as a form of payment for their services.

so NOT THIS...

[windjc]

Blockchain size.

This one bothers me, actually. Maybe I need to do some calculations to convince myself this does not become an issue in the foreseeable future... Or, convince myself this is an issue, and think if it can be fixed?

Anyone have links to serious analysis about this topic?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322748.msg3455664#msg3455664

[revans]

Hard fork over block size limit issue.

This is the most significant challenge that Bitcoin faces.

A challenge is something that can be overcome. The block size limit will demand a reboot of Bitcoin, and that will be the end of it as any credibility it has will be destroyed.

[Melbustus]

...The block size limit will demand a reboot of Bitcoin...

False. This has been discussed A LOT. Satoshi even addressed this concern years ago:

It can be phased in, like:

if (blocknumber > 115000)
    maxblocksize = largerlimit

It can start being in versions way ahead, so by the time it reaches that block number and goes into effect, the older versions that don't have it are already obsolete.

That one quote alone, from one of the earliest discussions on the matter, makes two points clear:

1) The original intent (which still makes sense, IMO) was that the blocksize limit should rise (as bandwidth and storage obviously become cheaper over time).
2) It can be done without a sudden, disruptive, hard-fork.

[Valerian77]

That's what I said. They launch an exact copy of bitcoins - open source and all. But this exact copy gets a lot of publicity. And a major vendor accepts them, so a lot of demand. Everyone switches to AmazonBucks and forgets the current bitcoin.

It is not a thread because of rational reasons it will be very difficult in the beginning to produce enough money for their purpose and then to keep up the whole infrastructure without control over it. No way.

The other way is to create something with predefined coins - then you might have Linden Dollars which are of no interest for the Bitcoin community.

[revans]

...The block size limit will demand a reboot of Bitcoin...

False. This has been discussed A LOT. Satoshi even addressed this concern years ago:

It can be phased in, like:

if (blocknumber > 115000)
    maxblocksize = largerlimit

It can start being in versions way ahead, so by the time it reaches that block number and goes into effect, the older versions that don't have it are already obsolete.

That one quote alone, from one of the earliest discussions on the matter, makes two points clear:

1) The original intent (which still makes sense, IMO) was that the blocksize limit should rise (as bandwidth and storage obviously become cheaper over time).
2) It can be done without a sudden, disruptive, hard-fork.

We'll see.

[byronbb]

The only threat is a weakness in the crypto or some hard-fork/double spend. Everything else is a detail in the long term.

[ElectricMucus]

If you look at the talking heads on the forum:

-Cosbycoin
-Ripple
-eBay/paypal/Amazon
-BFL
-The Rothchilds/JPM
-NSA/FBI/CIA/DHS

[windjc]

If you listen to me talk on the forum:

-Cosbycoin
-Ripple
-eBay/paypal/Amazon
-BFL
-The Rothchilds/JPM
-NSA/FBI/CIA/DHS

FIFY

[Beta-coiner1]

I think the greatest threats to the value of BTC are-

-The first users or those who hold large amounts of BTC.
-Banks unilaterally blocking any funds dealing with BTC worldwide
-A major bug in the Block chain.
-US agencies dumping BTC seizures on exchanges.
-51% attack via quantum computing.

[balanghai]

threat is when miners will be attacked by hackers and making a huge downtime to more than half of the miners.

[ElectricMucus]

FIFY

The forum is full of it, even without me posting. One of my main activities here is making fun of those who really do think these things are a threat and I can't even do it in half the occurrences.

[theonewhowaskazu]

AmazonBucks ™

This.

A large company - Amazon / Google / whoever - launches its own cryptocurrency. Even if it's an exact clone of bitcoins. They do a big promo and accept it as a form of payment for their services.

Beats me how that could ever beat bitcoin, unless it's decentralized and open source as well. Then it would be more like a bitcoin 2.0.

But yea, block size limit and the regulatory issues could be a problem in the future.

That's what I said. They launch an exact copy of bitcoins - open source and all. But this exact copy gets a lot of publicity. And a major vendor accepts them, so a lot of demand. Everyone switches to AmazonBucks and forgets the current bitcoin.

At that point, what's the whole point for Amazon to do it in the first place? If its the same as Bitcoin, why not just accept Bitcoins? Unless they plan to pre-mine extensively or something, at which point you're essentially just buying a transferable Amazon gift card.

[derpinheimer]

AmazonBucks ™

This.

A large company - Amazon / Google / whoever - launches its own cryptocurrency. Even if it's an exact clone of bitcoins. They do a big promo and accept it as a form of payment for their services.

Beats me how that could ever beat bitcoin, unless it's decentralized and open source as well. Then it would be more like a bitcoin 2.0.

But yea, block size limit and the regulatory issues could be a problem in the future.

That's what I said. They launch an exact copy of bitcoins - open source and all. But this exact copy gets a lot of publicity. And a major vendor accepts them, so a lot of demand. Everyone switches to AmazonBucks and forgets the current bitcoin.

At that point, what's the whole point for Amazon to do it in the first place? If its the same as Bitcoin, why not just accept Bitcoins? Unless they plan to pre-mine extensively or something, at which point you're essentially just buying a transferable Amazon gift card.

Im sure they could work some improvements in and then put in a tiny fee of like 0.000001BTC for every transaction using AmazonBucks.

[majamalu]

I think the greatest threats to the value of BTC are-

-The first users or those who hold large amounts of BTC.
-Banks unilaterally blocking any funds dealing with BTC worldwide
-A major bug in the Block chain.
-US agencies dumping BTC seizures on exchanges.
-51% attack via quantum computing.

Agree. If the US agencies dump all their confiscated coins on the market, The BTC price will get hammered.

Yeah, for about 15 minutes.

[derpinheimer]

I think the greatest threats to the value of BTC are-

-The first users or those who hold large amounts of BTC.
-Banks unilaterally blocking any funds dealing with BTC worldwide
-A major bug in the Block chain.
-US agencies dumping BTC seizures on exchanges.
-51% attack via quantum computing.

Agree. If the US agencies dump all their confiscated coins on the market, The BTC price will get hammered.

Yeah, for about 15 minutes.

Itll be an insane crash for 15 minutes, but another 300k coins on the market would have a lasting effect.

[Odalv]

I think the greatest threats to the value of BTC are-

-The first users or those who hold large amounts of BTC.
-Banks unilaterally blocking any funds dealing with BTC worldwide
-A major bug in the Block chain.
-US agencies dumping BTC seizures on exchanges.
-51% attack via quantum computing.

Agree. If the US agencies dump all their confiscated coins on the market, The BTC price will get hammered.

Yeah, for about 15 minutes.

Itll be an insane crash for 15 minutes, but another 300k coins on the market would have a lasting effect.

Cheap coins. Opportunity to buy that will not last long.

[ferda2mx]

I think the greatest threats to the value of BTC are-

-The first users or those who hold large amounts of BTC.
-Banks unilaterally blocking any funds dealing with BTC worldwide
-A major bug in the Block chain.
-US agencies dumping BTC seizures on exchanges.
-51% attack via quantum computing.

Agree. If the US agencies dump all their confiscated coins on the market, The BTC price will get hammered.

Yeah, for about 15 minutes.

Itll be an insane crash for 15 minutes, but another 300k coins on the market would have a lasting effect.

US agencies would do me big favor, my under 100 buy orders could be filled !

[zeroday]

IMO, the worst thing for bitcoin would be when some group of "activists" persuade the community to regulate bitcoin by tampering with its functionality, like:
 - dividing coins on good/bad.
 - making hard forks to embed some kind of KYC/AML procedures or making it reversible.
 - cancelling bitcoin addresses that don't have movements for over X years and put their coins back into circulation.

[hermann1983]

IMO, the worst thing for bitcoin would be when some group of "activists" persuade the community to regulate bitcoin by tampering with its functionality, like:
 - dividing coins on good/bad.
 - making hard forks to embed some kind of KYC/AML procedures or making it reversible.
 - cancelling bitcoin addresses that don't have movements for over X years and put their coins back into circulation.

Forks might happen in future, but I will stick with original protocol. The number of altcoins doesnt threat Bitcoin at all, the same might happen with numerous forks in future

[theonewhowaskazu]

IMO, the worst thing for bitcoin would be when some group of "activists" persuade the community to regulate bitcoin by tampering with its functionality, like:
 - dividing coins on good/bad.
 - making hard forks to embed some kind of KYC/AML procedures or making it reversible.
 - cancelling bitcoin addresses that don't have movements for over X years and put their coins back into circulation.

So, you're saying the biggest threat to Bitcoin is altcoins?

I agree 100%.

[Valerian77]

IMO, the worst thing for bitcoin would be when some group of "activists" persuade the community to regulate bitcoin by tampering with its functionality, like:
 - dividing coins on good/bad.
 - making hard forks to embed some kind of KYC/AML procedures or making it reversible.
 - cancelling bitcoin addresses that don't have movements for over X years and put their coins back into circulation.

So, you're saying the biggest threat to Bitcoin is altcoins?

I agree 100%.

possible but unlikely. Bitcoin distribution is a market for itself as well as value distribution over altcoins is a market. These kind of markets tend to concentrate a bigger part of the whole value - they work like attractors. Maybe 20% of the addresses will hold 80% of the Bitcoins. Same works for the altcoin market - Bitcoin will remain the dominant currency.

[theonewhowaskazu]

IMO, the worst thing for bitcoin would be when some group of "activists" persuade the community to regulate bitcoin by tampering with its functionality, like:
 - dividing coins on good/bad.
 - making hard forks to embed some kind of KYC/AML procedures or making it reversible.
 - cancelling bitcoin addresses that don't have movements for over X years and put their coins back into circulation.

So, you're saying the biggest threat to Bitcoin is altcoins?

I agree 100%.

possible but unlikely. Bitcoin distribution is a market for itself as well as value distribution over altcoins is a market. These kind of markets tend to concentrate a bigger part of the whole value - they work like attractors. Maybe 20% of the addresses will hold 80% of the Bitcoins. Same works for the altcoin market - Bitcoin will remain the dominant currency.

Yes, only that other 20% of the value are stuck into coins that can be created at the drop of a hat, but can also bubble hugely. Its a pretty damn big problem.

[zeroday]

what if 51% of users will be convinced to upgrade their software with hardforked version ?

[foggyb]

AmazonBucks ™

Amazon is a bug on the windshield of this clown car called bitcoin.