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Author Topic: No capitulation  (Read 1561 times)
Joe200
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November 01, 2013, 06:18:21 PM
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What worries me in all this is that there has been no capitulation. We all "know" that coins will go "to da moon", so some of us held through the crash, while others sold at the top, just to pick up more coins at the bottom. The point is, no one got scared off by the crash. No one really capitulated. At most people got out temporarily. And then when the price started moving up, they panicked and got back in.

No capitulation is a bad thing if we want the price to go a lot higher. Everyone who knows about coins already has coins. How will the price go any higher? Where are the bears? Everyone takes it for granted that the price will go up.
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mgio
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November 01, 2013, 06:22:04 PM
 #2

What worries me in all this is that there has been no capitulation. We all "know" that coins will go "to da moon", so some of us held through the crash, while others sold at the top, just to pick up more coins at the bottom. The point is, no one got scared off by the crash. No one really capitulated. At most people got out temporarily. And then when the price started moving up, they panicked and got back in.

No capitulation is a bad thing if we want the price to go a lot higher. Everyone who knows about coins already has coins. How will the price go any higher? Where are the bears? Everyone takes it for granted that the price will go up.

The highlighted sentence is where your assumption is wrong. Bitcoin is going up because there are new people entering the market. When bitcoin goes up there is more in the news about bitcoin causes more people to learn about it and start buying causing it to go up even more.

There are still bears. They just aren't very vocal when the price is rising.
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November 01, 2013, 06:26:58 PM
 #3

And for those that has coins, even though everyone know we are going to the moon, no one knows exactly where the moon actually is.
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November 01, 2013, 06:31:34 PM
 #4

This is bitcoin we're discussing right? Bears are just bulls who want cheap 'coin. Grin

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November 01, 2013, 06:33:23 PM
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The bulls like to claim that all the coins are being accumulated offline. They can't prove it of course.
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November 01, 2013, 06:34:13 PM
 #6

This is bitcoin we're discussing right? Bears are just bulls who want cheap 'coin. Grin

And in the face of the surge in downloads, Wikipedia views, news, etc., no bear seems to have the stones to try and trigger a capitulation phase.... Although it may yet come if bullish momentum continues to die off.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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SheHadMANHands
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November 01, 2013, 06:48:11 PM
 #7

No capitulation last few weeks?   Roll Eyes

That's a good one, OP.
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November 01, 2013, 07:08:30 PM
 #8

We all "know" that coins will go "to da moon"

What you mean is you 'hope' coins will go .......

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November 01, 2013, 07:14:51 PM
 #9

$265 to $54 in 3 days was the very definition of capitation. The fact that people slowly came back in is a good sign. Breaking $184 going back up was the a technical sign that the bulls are back in charge.

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November 01, 2013, 09:49:23 PM
 #10

$265 to $54 in 3 days was the very definition of capitation.

Yeah, it dropped 80% in 3 days, and then flirted with the low *again* a couple months later. Looked like a good shake out to me.


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November 01, 2013, 09:52:03 PM
 #11

$265 to $54 in 3 days was the very definition of capitation.

Yeah, it dropped 80% in 3 days, and then flirted with the low *again* a couple months later. Looked like a good shake out to me.


Point still remains -- it could still happen again, possibly sooner than later.  Wink
TheQuin
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November 01, 2013, 09:59:20 PM
 #12

$265 to $54 in 3 days was the very definition of capitation.

Yeah, it dropped 80% in 3 days, and then flirted with the low *again* a couple months later. Looked like a good shake out to me.


Point still remains -- it could still happen again, possibly sooner than later.  Wink

Yep, they shake good and hard. Learn how they work and profit.


RationalSpeculator
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November 01, 2013, 10:36:58 PM
 #13

I used to be a bear.

However, I got beaten.

I remain careful and accept the loss but I have also lost the hope of buying them back.

As every day ticks, more and more people join and own, and the lower chances become for a serious correction.

I used to think $60 was in the cards, but then Silk Road clampdown went down to only $85 and shut up to the current $200.

Too much money chasing the coins. And it will - likely - only get worse.

I forgot about $60, even $90, if $120 would be touched I would be surprised. $150 is still possible.

Just my thoughts.
TheQuin
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November 01, 2013, 10:41:00 PM
 #14

I used to be a bear.

However, I got beaten.

I remain careful and accept the loss but I have also lost the hope of buying them back.

As every day ticks, more and more people join and own, and the lower chances become for a serious correction.

I used to think $60 was in the cards, but then Silk Road clampdown went down to only $85 and shut up to the current $200.

Too much money chasing the coins. And it will - likely - only get worse.

I forgot about $60, even $90, if $120 would be touched I would be surprised. $150 is still possible.

Just my thoughts.

It is all possible. Never be a bear, never be a bull, be right (at this moment in time).

RationalSpeculator
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November 01, 2013, 10:42:29 PM
 #15



It is all possible. Never be a bear, never be a bull, be right (at this moment in time).


Can you elaborate?
RationalSpeculator
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November 01, 2013, 10:45:23 PM
 #16

$265 to $54 in 3 days was the very definition of capitation.

Yeah, it dropped 80% in 3 days, and then flirted with the low *again* a couple months later. Looked like a good shake out to me.


Point still remains -- it could still happen again, possibly sooner than later.  Wink

I was very confident a hard crash was going to happen the first time we went over $200, in April.

However, we are 6 months further now, with 10 times more people knowing/owning bitcoin due to that first rise in April, with now billionaires revealing they have been buying, hence I think chances have dramatically diminished.

You seem too confident for a crash.

On what is your confidence based?
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November 01, 2013, 10:58:50 PM
 #17

I used to be a bear.

However, I got beaten.

I remain careful and accept the loss but I have also lost the hope of buying them back.

As every day ticks, more and more people join and own, and the lower chances become for a serious correction.

I used to think $60 was in the cards, but then Silk Road clampdown went down to only $85 and shut up to the current $200.

Too much money chasing the coins. And it will - likely - only get worse.

I forgot about $60, even $90, if $120 would be touched I would be surprised. $150 is still possible.

Just my thoughts.

I think your mistake was to pick a bottom.  You should buy on the way down and then the rest in the bottom quarter (say) of the bounce back up because you can never be sure that your chosen bottom is THE bottom.  If you sold some in April at 230 (say) and then bought back at 190, 150, 100, 75, 67 and then 80, was that 190 buy really bad? 

What could be wrong with getting back into your BTC position with an extra 40 bucks per coin left over!  Seems to me like you made a good trade, assuming you believe in the fundamentals. 

Of course the other buys were better, but they would not have existed if the bounce had happened at 180...

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November 01, 2013, 11:20:11 PM
 #18



It is all possible. Never be a bear, never be a bull, be right (at this moment in time).


Can you elaborate?

In essence, never be so sure you know what will happen next. The markets will punish you if you fight them. The markets are the sum of the thoughts of all their participants. None of us individually can influence what they think or do. So stay nimble, read the charts, be prepared to flip from bull to bear.

So right now I think it is right to be a bull but if I see a print below $87 I'm outa here.


RationalSpeculator
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November 01, 2013, 11:25:27 PM
 #19

I used to be a bear.

However, I got beaten.

I remain careful and accept the loss but I have also lost the hope of buying them back.

As every day ticks, more and more people join and own, and the lower chances become for a serious correction.

I used to think $60 was in the cards, but then Silk Road clampdown went down to only $85 and shut up to the current $200.

Too much money chasing the coins. And it will - likely - only get worse.

I forgot about $60, even $90, if $120 would be touched I would be surprised. $150 is still possible.

Just my thoughts.

I think your mistake was to pick a bottom.  You should buy on the way down and then the rest in the bottom quarter (say) of the bounce back up because you can never be sure that your chosen bottom is THE bottom.  If you sold some in April at 230 (say) and then bought back at 190, 150, 100, 75, 67 and then 80, was that 190 buy really bad?  

What could be wrong with getting back into your BTC position with an extra 40 bucks per coin left over!  Seems to me like you made a good trade, assuming you believe in the fundamentals.  

Of course the other buys were better, but they would not have existed if the bounce had happened at 180...


I have always bought on the way down, but, I have also always sold on the way up, and that has been my undoing.
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November 02, 2013, 06:05:56 AM
 #20

I used to be a bear.

However, I got beaten.

I remain careful and accept the loss but I have also lost the hope of buying them back.

As every day ticks, more and more people join and own, and the lower chances become for a serious correction.

I used to think $60 was in the cards, but then Silk Road clampdown went down to only $85 and shut up to the current $200.

Too much money chasing the coins. And it will - likely - only get worse.

I forgot about $60, even $90, if $120 would be touched I would be surprised. $150 is still possible.

Just my thoughts.

I think your mistake was to pick a bottom.  You should buy on the way down and then the rest in the bottom quarter (say) of the bounce back up because you can never be sure that your chosen bottom is THE bottom.  If you sold some in April at 230 (say) and then bought back at 190, 150, 100, 75, 67 and then 80, was that 190 buy really bad?  

What could be wrong with getting back into your BTC position with an extra 40 bucks per coin left over!  Seems to me like you made a good trade, assuming you believe in the fundamentals.  

Of course the other buys were better, but they would not have existed if the bounce had happened at 180...


I have always bought on the way down, but, I have also always sold on the way up, and that has been my undoing.

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