It is not difficult at all to see where this is going......
This outlines why obvious conclusions are wrong. I can make money shorting or betting against bitcoin, maybe half a dozen providers will allow me to do this with very little capital required by myself. Free money if all its going to do is go down.
Even better the profits from such a bet is tax free, great I live in a really liberal part of the world that does not mind me winning bets. They tax the company instead and like I say theres half a dozen opportunties for me to short bitcoin.
However I'm not short Bitcoin even on a 'sure thing' Mostly I cannot do this knowing markets do not move in simple straight lines, I need a better set of reasoning to do this and blindly shorting something that can move so powerfully doesnt seem best.
The problem for me is we are under obvious resistance, the 200 day moving average and I know its pulled back. A few times its failed to pass that mark but the BTC price when it does move upwards in a bullish way it often does so in an extremely sharp quick movement. I could lose a thousand in just a few minutes even if I was watching it all the time. I dont like that idea, I would rather go negative on BTC price especially when there is no gloomy threads saying all we can do is go down.
You get my reasoning, when its all negative its not the time to join the crowd on that bet. The profit will come from the surprise to the upside. This guy could even be right negatively projecting price long term but it wont be in a super obvious way.